CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

[Polybius]

Source: CNN

(CNN)Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump among registered voters has significantly narrowed since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, even as the former vice president maintains an advantage over the President on several top issues and his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris as a running mate earns largely positive reviews.

And on the eve of the party conventions, a majority of voters (53%) are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in this year's election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.

Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.

Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html

---

An ABC poll posted in an earlier thread had Biden up by 11. Since both polls are highly-rated, I suspect the actual percentage is somewhere in the middle.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. CNN's poll has a B/C rating by Nate Silver. It's the worst of the network polls.

[PSPS]

2. CNN: "It's a horse race, folks! Be sure to stay tuned to CNN. Now, a word from our sponsor!"

[calimary]

12. Steve Kornacki on MSNBC! MAJOR Hard-on for Horse-Race" guy.

At our house, he's often referred to as "Steve PLEASE-Switch-to-Decaf" Kornacki.

I keep meaning to write a letter to him at MSNBC, begging him to stop standing in front of his statistics boards! DAYUM!!! He's a man obsessed. Arms flailing like a windmill on LSD or something! One arm on an almost-mechanical back 'n' forth as he's trying to show you the number farthest to the left, in comparison to a series of numbers to the right - so you CAN'T FUCKING SEE THE OTHER DAMN NUMBERS he's trying to compare to the left-side number!!! STEVE! Get the fuck OUT OF THE WAY! So we can at least see the graphic over which you're damn near foaming at the mouth, for Pete's Sake!

Sorry to yell. But day after day of this shit from him just starts to get to me. They probably love his energy and enthusiasm, but CRIMINY!!! I find myself wondering - "does this test well? Is that why he's on there like a human helicopter buzz-sawing his arms across the graphic board so you cannot see or take in the numbers on there.

Gee - for somebody who never liked or excelled in math at school, I can't believe how numbers-obsessed I've become...

[Marthe48]

28. When he comes on, I shut it off

He is not exciting, nor are his antics adding anything to the numbers he has, nor do his explanations make any sense. Show me who has more votes, who has less and move on.

[calimary]

32. True. He's not exciting for me either. Just nerve-wracking.

Show me who has more votes, who has less, STEP THE FUCK ASIDE SO I CAN SEE THE FUCKING BOARD, and move on.

[Marthe48]

36. Do you remember when the local news used chalkboards?

They spent as long as it took and kept the numbers updated by hand.

[calimary]

39. Yep, sure do!

Old enough to. I was a news junkie from way back. Even before I started working. It just fascinated me.

I remember the first time I realized I could listen to the all-news radio station all night. Leave the radio on, doze off to it. It'd keep me company when I had insomnia - which was often.

I still have the little wooden AM-only radio that my parents bought to keep by my bedside when I was four. I'd have it on ALL NIGHT! Mainly to listen to music and stuff. There weren't any all-news stations back then.

[Marthe48]

43. Wow!

I do watch for your posts on DU, because you are always on top of things

When my husband was alive, we'd have the tv on cnn for hours. I got rid of cable and just check here every few hours. I do have my radio on classic rock from 10 am until I go to bed. I like the stations I listen too, very few ads, no news except weather updates.

[AZ8theist]

46. Kornacki BLOWS.

A vertible fountain of useless information. "MR PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE BE A HORSE RACE SO I'M RELEVANT"

Stopped watching him 4 election cycles ago.

[Rebl2]

47. Can't stand Kornacki

I change the channel when he comes on

[llashram]

35. exactly

every election THEY tighten the polls. We out here know the deal and on this election, complacency is not going to be a factor nor should it be us falling for their goddamn drama. The MSM has to gin up the polls to keep those $$$ based on viewership rolling in. Too early for their goddamn drama anyway. The only poll that counts is the final totals this election. Our MSM is responsible for this clown being POTUS in the first place. And that's along with the complacent and whiny from the last election. Comey's input, Putin's interference.

HRC was the winner in 2016. Rogue EC voters did this too us because there is no oversight there as to actual votes. How am I to know the EC voter is doing my bidding? I don't. Depend on their integrity? With all the money floating around in our political system? HELL NO.

All I can say is if this goon/clown gets 4 more years, goodbye American democracy, hello trump fascist state with all his racism, sexism and sociopathic/narcissistic tendencies times infinity.

[calimary]

3. Good Grief - am I gonna have ANY fingernails left by Election Day?

[VMA131Marine]

4. FiveThirtyEight has Biden up 8.3%

In their polling average

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

I am focused on trends in that number and the reality is that Biden’s lead has been stable since mid-June. I don’t think there are a lot of undecided or persuadable voters out there. Trump’s only hope is that his base turns out in greater proportions than they ever have before. As long as Democrats show up and vote, Biden wins!

[durablend]

7. There aren't a lot of undecideds out there

Most of the ones that claim to be are attention craving Karens whining "I'm the one who's going to decide this election!" when they damn well know they're voting for Trump.

[cemaphonic]

51. Yeah, this is a big difference between 2016

A lot of the polling throughout the summer and early fall had nearly double-digit undecided. Even if Biden's lead isn't much bigger than Clinton's was at this point, it feels like more solid ground.

[Marthe48]

29. A lot of his base don't wear masks

and now suspect absentee voting.

He might see his base shrink before his eyes. Oh well, putin will fix that

[42bambi]

5. Just think, in five minutes we have the pleasure of seeing another poll. nt

[Naio]

6. I don't believe this BS

BS CNN

[Bayard]

9. Agreed

Every other poll I've seen has Biden up by 8 to 10.

And it shouldn't even be that close.

[zanana1]

52. I don't believe it, either.

After Biden's 10 point lead, it's a horse race overnight?

[IronLionZion]

8. Yeah sure CNN, whatever gets ratings

[Keth]

10. What's up CNN?

I was just visiting CNN.Com and they had a link to their poll with Vice President Biden having a 9 point lead. It was dated today. Confusing CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/biden-trump-poll-of-polls-august-election/index.html

[calimary]

37. Welcome to DU, Keth!

There are different polls, state and national, different aggregate polls, and the same sources don't often get interpreted the same way.

For example, in the COVID Confirmed cases/Deaths tracking that I do elsewhere here, I noticed that MSNBC and CNN both reference Johns Hopkins as the source of their data. But the totals are not the exact same. CNN's usually lag behind MSNBC's.

I use MSNBC's figures for consistency, since I tend to watch MSNBC more than CNN, on average, and I started tracking the MSNBC data because that's what I was seeing more frequently. So I just stuck with that.

Just an amateur numbers-cruncher here.

[Keth]

53. Thanks.

Thanks for the welcome. I've been tiptoeing around the Underground for a few years now - just not very talkative.

Thanks for the number crunching! It does get a bit confusing. I appreciate it.

[Dopers_Greed]

11. It's not tightening up

Silver's election model has barely moved since it started tracking data.

That said, Trump still has WAY too high of a chance of winning. But it's not because his position is improving.

[global1]

13. I Posted This Back On July 25, 2020 - Check Out My Prediction & The Responses.....

It's 'horse race time' folks. We're there!!!!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213804929

[LeftInTX]

14. Yes polls have been showing Biden 50 to 41

9 points, but it not the same as Biden 59, Trump 41

Those 9 points are "Undecideds".

[LenaBaby61]

15. Thing about this CNN poll from yesterday ....

Is that it over-sampled independents and this is a poll of registered voters only. There aren't likely voters.

31% dem, 27% rep, 41% independents.

And this got me too, same poll:

CNN has 54% disapproving of the job Chump is doing and 42% approving, if the voting is 50-46?

Makes absolutely NO sense.

Anyone knows that these polls are going to tighten (they shouldn't given that we have a murderous maniac installed into the White House), but CNN is up to it's horse-race trick (circa 2016) and the reason for that is to be able to make ad buys which brings them ad $$$ with this type of polling, and head lines. Not that Dems shouldn't get as many people registered to vote and then get them out to vote or mail in their ballots like Biden's behind by 150 pts. It's more than that: We're voting for our lives/existence as a country. IF fatso steals his way in there again for 4 more years, we're DONE as a country.

However, it's SO disingenuous of CNN to keep running these 'fake polls' yeah I said it-- where the methodology et al is not honest, and where they are click-baiting with it's headlines. SMDH.

[getagrip_already]

16. good - maybe now people will get up and actually vote.....

There are far too many voters who won't turn out if they believe the election is won. Why bother, they think. Let the other people do it.

We need every vote. We need every volunteer. We need every donor. Don't leave it for someone else.

Get people to vote no matter what the obstacles or barriers. There will always be an excuse. Unless they believe their vote is needed.

[Marthe48]

30. I will contribute to several campaigns

but I want to wait until after the convention. I hope my timing is okay.

[RhodeIslandOne]

17. The media has to tighten it

They don't want to have to explain why this will not be a fair election when the results have "mysterious and surprising" changes.

[Doodley]

18. Polling noise, but one poll like this this would help Trump steal the election, by claiming

this poll is the least inaccurate to justify his refusal to accept a result or to achieve a suspicious win.

[Cryptoad]

19. CNN been running this story for three days ,,,,,,,

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. Bullshit horse race narrative ignores 2 other polls released today w/double digit leads for Biden Nt

[Ford_Prefect]

21. The CNN poll is skewed to show a "horse race". It's what they sell.

Silver has been pretty consistent but he's not doing the polling himself. We are gonna see all kinds of "horse race" crap until 5 days after. It's like the headlines screaming at you in the gossip rag rack when you checkout at the grocery or the pharmacy.

The pollsters still haven't figured out how to reliably reach those who live on their cell phone, or who screen every land line call (like us). COVID means that in-person polling, like I did one year for Harris, isn't going to yield the spread of results the big polls depend on. I have long been suspect of the methodology and the claims that a poll in Springfield, Mo. tells me what the whole country is thinking, however true it might be for South West Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas.

[totodeinhere]

27. We were hearing your same line of reasoning four years ago too. People at DU

were saying that the media wants a horse race. Well, we know how that turned out. It really was a horse race. Myself, I think that this election will be closer than we think.

[Ford_Prefect]

41. The faked news horse race perhaps. Millions of voters were disenfranchised.

It was only close where they could engineer it so. It may have turned out close but that was not due to the ordinary, and correct function of the electorate. Had the count been correct and inclusive we'd have had an entirely different outcome on several levels.

This year the GOP doesn't have the same degree of overt control on how the count is processed. So they have cranked up the machinery to discourage people from voting, to gum up the processing of the count, to confuse and mislead voters, to limit where they may vote by eliminating polling stations, to eliminate voting by mail, to erase or dump registrations and to cast doubt on any outcome not sanctified by our Dear Leader. That is the range of dirty tricks we know of.

Whatever the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, Saudis, (and for all we know the Israeli Right-Wing), not to mention the US Right-Wing Oligarchs are up to and can influence we have no measure of except to speculate that it will likely be more pervasive and cause more long term damage. We know that the party of no-deal has at stake holding the Senate and will surely do anythingat all to maintain McConnell's machine.

I expect to see the most visciously fought campaign of this and the last century. I expect Trump to try to do anything his cabal can arrange including but not limited to human sacrifice and insurection.

[totodeinhere]

44. The GOP doesn't have the same degree of control? I beg to differ.

Four years ago there was a Democrat in the White House. But now with Trump in power he can use that power to create all sorts of mischief such as sabotaging the Postal Service. He didn't have the power to do that last time. Now he does. And he has all of those stooge judges that he appointed to the federal bench to back him up if it goes to court.

[Ford_Prefect]

45. In 2016 they had direct control of numerous State Governments and the voting process in each.

That allowed them to adjust the process, the count, access to voting sites, engineer registration dumps, and exclusions in battleground states.

They lost several of those since then and as such no longer own that process to the same degree.

They have a different machine in place this year. While it is no less dangerous it is far less co-ordinated. Rather than control specific counting situations, they will instead concentrate on reducing the # of voters. They interfere with the process where they cannot own it via challenges by "poll watchers", threats and intimidation. They will also derail any part of the voting process they can such as the US Post Office.

I didn't say they were less dangerous. I said they don't have the same degree of precise control on the outcomes. That is why we are hearing of more egregious and excessive actions. That's what the powerful who intend to continue being so do. I have no doubt about how far Trump is willing to go. I am concerned that the Democratic party is not prepared to fight to the degree needed to win. This election ain't horseshoes.

I think that certain parts of our government have essentially sat on their hands rather than confront the reality that Trump is being run by Putin on many key issues. How that plays out in the larger scheme of Washington DC and internal government policy wars between agencies I don't like to consider.

[Greybnk48]

22. If this election is even close

this country is done.

[totodeinhere]

23. I don't know how accurate this poll is.

But historically presidential races usually tighten as we get closer to election day. I have always expected a close election.

[bobalew]

24. These Effin' Assh*les need to DO THEIR JOB!

Instead of creating a "Horse Race".... Damn MORONS!
I have lost ALL PATIENCE with this excrement fest...

[PatrickforO]

25. Really? Oh, Lord. We've got to get out and vote, and get out the vote from everybody

we can.

That said, according to 538, Biden leads 51.3% to Trump's 43%.

Biden has over 50%, folks.

Let's not be cocky or overconfident. We've got to put this election in the DECISIVE win column. But I don't buy that it is this close.

[Thekaspervote]

26. It's one in 4 polls out in the last 24-36 hours and it's way off compared to the A+ rated polls

NBC/WSJ
Biden 50%
dotard 41%

YOU/GOV
Biden 52%
dotard 42%

ABC/WAPO
Biden leads by 12

[Joinfortmill]

31. This is such bullshit.

[bucolic_frolic]

33. All Trump voters are liars just like their god

And they'll all burn in hell

[Roland99]

34. That was the SSRS poll (overweights swing states). CNN "Poll of polls" shows Biden +9

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/biden-trump-poll-of-polls-august-election/index.html

[liskddksil]

42. It does not overweight swing states. Over-sampling is used for a seperate analysis of those states.

It does not mean the national poll is weighted more heavily toward swing states.

[caraher]

38. How to interpret polls

Assume the race is tied and work your butt off for Biden and down-ticket Dems.

Nothing else is an option.

[bobalew]

40. These Effin' Assh*les need to DO THEIR JOB!

Instead of creating a "Horse Race".... Damn MORONS!
I have lost ALL PATIENCE with this excrement fest...

[myohmy2]

48. I've maintained...

...all along, the way to beat trump is to out-trump trump...

...Biden's been playing he vest close to his cards, keeping his power dry and acting normal...

...is being sane going to be enough?...has the election dynamic changed?...who knows

...but we'll soon find out...

[LudwigPastorius]

49. That Trump is even polling anywhere close to Biden makes me think...

that this country is doomed, even if Joe & Kamala win.

A free, democratic republic cannot survive in the long term with this many stupid/uninformed/racist people.

[Demonaut]

50. Duey Wins!

[Demsrule86]

54. One CNN poll does not mean there has been any narrowing...total BS poll.