USC Dornsife launches 2020 election tracking poll; Biden leads by 11 points

[oldsoftie]

Source: USC

Two centers at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences have launched a daily nationwide poll to track Americans’ opinions about the presidential candidates.

USC researchers will base election forecasts on an updated version of methods used in their groundbreaking 2016 election poll, which tracked crucial inflection points in the election by following the same individuals over time. Data from the 2016 USC poll suggested late-breaking support among certain groups that contributed to Donald Trump’s surprise win in the electoral college.

“Our 2016 Daybreak poll was the USC debut of experimental polling methods pioneered by our team at Rand in 2012,” said Jill Darling, survey director of the 2020 Daybreak Poll, which is conducted by the USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research.

“We adjusted our model for the 2018 election and had great success predicting the congressional outcome. This election cycle we’ll be using that model, and two additional methodologies, to track voter support for presidential candidates. We are also asking voters which party’s candidate they’ll vote for in congressional races.”

Read more: https://news.usc.edu/174625/usc-dornsife-2020-election-tracking-poll-biden-lead-11-points/

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This poll showed Trump winning in '16. I like the new ways they're evaluating voters.

[oswaldactedalone]

1. I remember when Rand started their poll in 2012

and there was a great deal of skepticism about it. The more I kept observing it though, the more it coalesced with other polls. I started to believe in it, and it had me worried as we got closer to the '16 election. Pay attention to this poll. I believe 538 will eventually consider it A-rated.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Polling is becoming like major league sports where there are so many teams

a championship is only likely once every 30 years or so.

[DrToast]

3. "This poll showed Trump winning in '16."

Not really. It had Trump winning the popular vote, which he did not.

[still_one]

4. In general, based on national polls, I expect Biden to win the popular vote. The issue is the

electoral college, and that is where the rubber meets the road

[DrToast]

5. If the current national polls are accurate...

...it is incredibly unlikely the electoral college can provide enough of an advantage for Trump to win.

[still_one]

7. Not sure how unlikely that is. Looking at Charlie Cook's electoral college analysis

there are too many lean Democratic states that in my view should be solid Democratic, such a Minnesota and Pennslvania.

While it is a good thing that those states lean blue and not red, I would have more confidence if they were solid blue

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/Jar%20and%20String.pdf

[rkleinberger]

6. In 2016 they were right on

When everyone was predicting a Clinton win, they remained steadfast that Trump would win. I have much respect for their polling.

[DrToast]

8. They were not right

They didn’t predict Trump would win the election. They predicted he would win the popular vote.