Unemployment claims figures could be much lower because of new seasonal adjustment approach

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: USA TODAY

Unemployment claims figures could be much lower because of new seasonal adjustment approach
Paul Davidson
USA TODAY
Published 12:01 a.m. ET Sep. 3, 2020

The Labor Department is switching to a new method to seasonally adjust its weekly jobless claims figures that could result in a sharply lower claims totals.

Initial claims - a rough measure of layoffs --that have hovered around 1 million each of the past few weeks could come in closer to about 800,000 for the week ending Aug. 29.

As a result, USA Today has decided to use non-seasonally adjusted claims totals so we can better compare the most recent numbers with previous figures.

Economics reporter Paul Davidson breaks it down.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/09/03/jobless-claims-new-seasonal-adjustment-method-could-lower-totals/5698414002/

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"These only go to nine."

[Lucky Luciano]

1. Seasonal adjustments are based on previous statistics...

...so if you are in an entirely new regime, the adjustment is meaningless. We are obviously in an entirely new regime now with Covid, so prior data won’t help make the adjustment which is usually based on some linear model.

In general, the adjustment methodologies are meaningful to compare different months, but not in the current climate.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Thank you for the explanation.

And good morning.

[beachbumbob]

3. trump admin as politicized all forms of data and this is totally one they are doing

zero faith in any govt "report"

[keithbvadu2]

4. We probably would not hear it if the new method resulted in higher numbers?

We probably would not hear it if the new method resulted in higher numbers?

The old method would have been just fine.