Millennials and seniors are spurning Trump. Here's why middle-aged voters are sticking with him

[pstokely]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: McClatchy

"White members of this age group are also just more fundamentally conservative than others. A study from Columbia University published last year found that a group of white voters labeled as “Reagan Conservatives,” those born between 1956 and 1980 (meaning they are between 40 and 64 years old now), have for decades been more supportive of Republican presidential candidates than the preceding and succeeding generation.

Many voters’ political identities are formed in their teens through early adulthood, the study noted. For those voters who are currently middle-aged, that meant their political identities were forged at a time when Reagan was declaring it “Morning in America.”

“This powerful imagery and the apparently overwhelming support of the American people no doubt had a powerful impact on the young cohort, who, 16 years old at the time, were squarely in the middle of their peak years of socialization,” wrote the paper’s authors, Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman, and Jonathan Auerbach.

Pollsters point to these generational differences as part of the reason Biden is performing better among seniors, because an older generation of more liberal voters have now aged into that category since 2016. That would mean the Democratic nominee’s better showing with senior citizens is at least somewhat artificial, and not reflective of genuine shifts in voter preference."

Read more: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article245686795.html

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OK Xer

[mdbl]

1. So the Reagan Conservatives think Reagan would like Trump?

I have a hard time with that.

[ananda]

14. Reagan put in place all the elements that created Trump.

!!!

[mdbl]

25. well, some elements anyway but you would need all the demons and satan himself

to finish the job to get to Trump.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. I remember a fellow X'er lamenting in the late 90's...

... that she wished this country was like the 80's again, when "everyone was happy" under Reagan.

I didn't bother replying back then, but thought, "Speak for yourself!"

[modrepub]

11. GenX Here

I'll take the Clinton years over the Reagan years any day. About the only good thing about Reagan was that any CD or savings account returned 5-10% interest (so if you were saving money you got a nice return). Of course the flip side was you paid 10% or more on any loans.

But we've already established many times over the Clinton Years were just about the best years of any presidency after Vietnam. (Music was better then too)

[Alacritous Crier]

3. It's the racism, stupid.

[CurtEastPoint]

4. Every day I believe that more and more because of the evidence we see daily.

Not all R's are racist but every fucking racist is a Repube.

[Alacritous Crier]

5. Yup. Scratch a Trumper....

[Hotler]

18. Don't forget selfishness and the hate for liberials.

Hate for the libtards is what drives theses 43%ers.

[Alacritous Crier]

21. Based on ignorance of the fear of buzzwords, (socialism.)

[mwb970]

6. Reagan would denounce trump as a corrupt, incompetent fraud.

[yardwork]

12. He wouldn't, any more than most Republicans are doing.

Reagan's presidency created Trump. There's a direct line from there to here.

[jcgoldie]

20. No I don't think so

Trump is just Reagan saying the coded stuff out loud. Why make up words like "welfare queens" to shield your racism when you can just go on twitter and warn people directly that black people are coming to steal their suburbs and confederate monuments, Mexicans are rapists, etc.

[Yeehah]

23. Incompetent, yes.

But corrupt describes the Reagan regime to a T.

[turbinetree]

7. Reagan broke the law and this jerk has broken many laws...............

and they run around being the law and order crowd..............give me a break..............

[raging moderate]

15. Yes! Dems are the USA Law and Order party!

WE should be shouting USA and LIBERTY AND JUSTICE FOR ALL at our rallies.

[MiniMe]

8. I'm in that age group, I'm 63

And what kind of propaganda are they putting out there? Absolutely none of my friends would vote for that egomaniac.

[Efilroft Sul]

9. When the history of this period is written, Generation X is going to be judged harshly.

And deservedly so.

[Locrian]

16. not just Genx - that overlapps into boomer as well - n/t

[yardwork]

10. This is my age group, and I can confirm that many white people my age are assholes.

I noticed it in high school and then in college.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. A lot of this age group actually voted for Obama

(who is in that age range) and who would probably vote for him again.

However what we saw in 2016 were many among the so-called "middle age" who had never voted before because they were never truly politically engaged until then. So I think that is going to be the big "variable" that will be difficult to nail - i.e., will those first time voters ever vote again, making them one and done (apparently we saw what happened in 2018) or will they be consistent/engaged voters, assuming they have some single wedge issue that is driving them to do so. Absent that, they might not be heard from again and the generational assumptions fail.

The analyses (which is what this is) are probably shooting spitballs when trying to guess what is going to happen this year because anyone who was a die-hard Raygunite can clearly see that what is going on now is NOT what he professed, and that whole effort by the "Never-Trumpers" and "The Lincoln Project" is showing how the true Raygunites feel. If the hypothesis was close to being correct, then Poppy Bush should have been elected to a 2nd term and McCain should have followed Shrub into office.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

17. That's more than just Xers

That's also 9 years of the younger Boomers too.

I hate generations. I'm supposed to be an Xer, but I'm at the tail end and I don't really relate to the generation. I feel more like an old Millennial than a young Xer.

"Many voters’ political identities are formed in their teens through early adulthood, the study noted. For those voters who are currently middle-aged, that meant their political identities were forged at a time when Reagan was declaring it “Morning in America.”"

This part doesn't make any sense for people at the tail end of Gen X. I was wasn't a teenager until Bill Clinton was president.

[exboyfil]

19. Those folks who have put 6.2%/6.2% into Social Security for 20-40 years

and Trump plans to zero out the funding source which pays SS.

I could see younger middle to high earners liking it (except for the awkward fact that mom and dad (and possibly grandma and grandpa) moving in with them.

[kimbutgar]

22. Not this 64 year old

I remember in 1980 I saw on TV, Reagan when he was running for President. I told my Dad I was thinking of voting for him and he told me I’d have to move out if house if I voted republican. He then told me how Reagan ruined public colleges in California and was all behind Prop 13 which exempted corporations from paying new increased taxes when they sold their property. My Dad was a life long Democrat who didn’t talk to his father for 2 weeks because he voted for Eisenhower in the 50’s. “Dirty, stinking, lousy Republicans “ was a phase my Dad said all the time. He hated Reagan and Nixon. The day Nixon resigned I remember him having a drink after work. He was a social drinker who only drank at social gatherings .

[MountainMama]

24. Oh, hell no....

I was raised a good West Virginia union-loving democrat and I knew Reagan was bad news. My first vote for president was for Walter Mondale.

Of course, I feel like an endangered species since WV has turned bright red. I plan on moving back there in a couple of years and I pray folks will come to their senses soon.

[Omaha Steve]

26. After a review by forum hosts....LOCKING

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