It's a big, big swing': Trump loses ground with white voters

[BainsBane]

Source: Politico

Donald Trump is making modest inroads with Latinos. Polls suggest he’s pulling slightly more Black support than in 2016.

But Trump is tilting at the margins with those groups. His bigger problem is the demographic that sent him to the White House — white voters, whose embrace of Trump appears to be slipping in critical, predominantly white swing states.

In Minnesota, where the contest between Trump and Joe Biden had seemed to tighten in recent weeks — and where both candidates stumped on Friday — a CBS News/YouGov survey last week had Trump running 2 percentage points behind Biden with white voters, after carrying them by 7 points in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees — Trump’s base — the president was far short of the margin he put up against Hillary Clinton there.

It’s the same story in Wisconsin, where Trump won non-college educated white women by 16 percentage points four years ago but is now losing them by 9 percentage points, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. In Pennsylvania, Biden has now pulled even with Trump among white voters, according to an NBC News/Marist Poll.








Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/trump-white-voters-support-418420

---

This could be a really good sign for the Biden campaign. I don't understand Trump's increase among African American voters, but face it, white voters have been and are the key to GOP electoral wins. Let's hope this poll is accurate and more white voters see through Trump's trumpeting.

[bronxiteforever]

1. Social security & COVID are hitting seniors

The most reliable voters. They are abandoning the Orange Menace too.

[BainsBane]

3. good point

and his war on mail-in voting and the post office may have an effect too. Seniors rely on mail more than most of us.

[LizBeth]

4. +1

[bucolic_frolic]

2. I don't think there's anything different going on here than Fox News ratings are down

and MSNBC are gaining, and CNN is clinging hard to actual reality, and CBS, ABC are facing the realities of the polling.

Which is to say voters en masse are so stupid and gullible that the last thing in their head is what sticks.

And why October Surprises still matter, and why the GOP is harming itself with this Supreme Court pick.

[brush]

5. What poll suggests he has more black support? Must be an outlier poll.

[BainsBane]

6. The Economist/You Gov

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0hi1tcqs5/econTabReport.pdf

[Blasphemer]

8. I've read that his inroads are with Black men not women

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/9/21151095/black-women-trump-gop-conservatism-gap-2020

"But he did offer his thoughts on why black men might be more supportive of the president. “Trump is a genuinely ‘aspirational’ figure for some African American men — in fact, quite a few, higher than has been reported, I think,” he said. “I did quite a few informal interviews before the 2016 election and [was] surprised to see how far this went — but perhaps less surprising against a female Democratic candidate.”

“Trump’s business success, his ‘gangsta’ personal style, and his close association with black male celebrities as well as some of his policies (America First, staying out of foreign wars and investing at home) [have] created a real affinity.”

Rashawn Ray, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Maryland who has written extensively on how black men vote, told me, “Black men, particularly the 16 percent of college-educated black men who voted for Trump in 2016, are driven by their views about the economy, business growth, and religion. Some black men think that more progressive Democratic candidates are too liberal and they might simply not trust other candidates.” He added that those men weren’t impacted by the “same concerns” as a majority of black women."

[brush]

11. 16% or college educated black men are a small sliver of black male voters and leaves...

84% of black male, college educated voters who don't support trump, and any candidate, btw, would love to have the support of 84% of any demographic as no other demographic even gets close to that figure except black women overall. And we must keep in mind that that small sampling is only of college educated black men, not black men as a whole.

This whole notion of black male support for trump has been somehow turned on its head with this Cassandra-like concentration on 16% of a subset of all black male voters instead of a concentration on the extremely high 84% of college educated black males, which when combined with the even higher percentage of non-college educated black male who don't support trump would give a much clearer picture.

IMO this is an exaggeration and a divisive tactic (consider the source), and again, any candidate would be ecstatic to have 84% of any voter demographic. And btw, I'm a college educated black male and don't support trump and neither do any of my friends, mostly college educated. We laugh at this notion that there's a rising tide of black male voters for trump as they're about as numerous as the black males in trump's administration.

[Blasphemer]

14. Indeed...

The article points out that the vast majority of Black male voters support the Democratic party, do not back Trump, and that any shifts are happening at the margins. But, since the issue raised was about why there has been some slip in Black support, the article brings up one possible factor at play. I find it useful to consider, not to sow division but to create understanding. There are also important questions to be asked about Trump's Latino support. I appreciate that the article forces us not to think of minorities as a monolith when we consider their support for parties/candidates. I am in law school and my father recently helped me with an assignment. I was surprised to find out how conservative he (a college educated Black man) is about certain issues. He's certainly no Trump supporter, but I think it helpful to understand nuances that may impact support for the Democratic party.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. I bet I know who that sliver of a group is

they are who I call the MBA-having "Black Enterprise"-reading ones.



I also think a good-sized chunk of those who were able to get into the higher echelons of "corporate America" have generally tended to align with Republicanism (at least the "old style" "business-oriented" version), mostly because in order to wheel and deal in that circle, they pretty much have to tow that line.

The only other group (outside of a handful of "entertainers" ) would be the hardcore, entrenched "Lincoln Freed the Slaves™" and the southern-born "My family have always voted for Republicans because Dixicrats™" group, who are thankfully now dying out.

[brush]

19. Good analysis. Thank God the dixiecrat-influenced group are aging out, and hopefully...

the few upper echelon business ones who are traditional, not trump republicans, will pull the lever for sanity once they're in the voting booth.

Entertainment types, who knows?

[EndlessWire]

13. An aspirational figure??

My goodness. They like his "gangsta" style?? Are they gonna like his "dictator" --or "dickish" style, if you prefer--if they help reelect this monster? It doesn't say anything favorable that they would vote for him because he drug out Kanye West (is HE an aspirational figure??)

It's so tiring. Even though Trump used other people's money to fail with, even though he cheated people out of their fair wages (that alone should have put them off,) even though he is an intolerable lout--they think he is a good businessman? I don't get it

This is a guy that they should be running from. There won't be anything of our country left for them to "aspire" to if Trump gets reelected. HE IS DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY.

If they reelect him, he'll become a dictator with no qualms at all about how anyone--including them--is treated. He could even have them deported in the context of being a gang member. What's that you say? Not a gang member? Well, how does that "gangsta" style look now?

I mean, I'm shocked, really, at how easily some people are played. He's getting set to appoint a female, and perhaps a black female to the SUPREME COURT, just so he can attract those pockets of voters who might reelect him. Not because he cares about the SC. It's because he cares only about himself.

Where are all our tax dollars going? To fix the infrastructure? Nah...

I do feel bad that there are just two white guys to choose between--but, for G-d's sake, we have Kamala! She's more than qualified! She's more qualified than that dummy sitting there! Put aside your male agenda and help get rid of this Orange Turd who is just there to fill his pockets with YOUR money!!

(OMG, this is a hard day...)

[brush]

16. See post 11 for a more realistic perspective on this. "Aspirationnal" is hardly the case.

That's a HUGE exaggeration. Discount it.

[llashram]

21. exactly

no room for quislings.

[Colleen8406]

30. Many young, black voters

Do not like either Biden or Harris’ records on locking up black men. They both made decisions in the past that still bite, from mass incarceration over marijuana possession to opposing segregation, and these decisions still matter, still hurt. While most are still going to hold their nose and vote blue, they don’t see them as being allies. Pizza gate and #saveourchildren QAnon crap is also infiltrating TikTok.

[llashram]

15. With the hate shown toward POC

by this orange menace, for the life of me, I cannot understand why any black man with any sense at all would vote for an enemy. An enemy who would sooner like you dead than alive. I don't care how many degrees they have or what Jesus is telling them, my degree tells me he is an enemy of POC and humanity.

[brush]

17. See post 11

[llashram]

20. I do not care about all of that

to me, it's about having principles, integrity and a modicum of courage to stand against a true enemy of African-Americans and all POC really. If any quisling African-American votes for trump they are an enemy of democracy, the Constitution and all anti-trump POC. Period. Moscow Mitch, Leningrad Lindsey, the same with any Reptrumprgurgitate that votes with trump. No room for parsing here, I don't care if it's one-tenth of one per cent.

[brush]

22. I'm not a trump supporter either. My point is 66% of white men and 53% of white women...

voted for trump and nobody here is criticizing white men or white women while being outraged at the small minority of black men who have lost their minds in voting for trump.

If anyone needs criticizing the 66% of white men and 53% of white women, both majorities of their demographic, do too.

Get it?

[llashram]

23. Those white voters have been excoriated extensively

and they are no surprise. They are enemies of democracy, the rule of law and all-inclusive equality and justice for all. And so is ANY AA who votes for trump or sits in one of his rallies shouting and clapping for him. Period. Everyone here can have their opinions about this particular subject and I will respect their opinion, just don't have to agree with it. And in this area of discussion of politics and the vote, this is mine and will not change. No matter the rationale of any who can't agree with my point of view. Got it, do you?

[brush]

24. Who's trying to change your opinion? It's not much different than mine. I do disagree though...

that majorities of white men and women who voted for trump don't get the amount of outrage that the few black men who do. It's not proportional at all.

[yardwork]

26. I agree with you! I've been making the same point.

I'm a middle aged white woman. I think it's past time for white people to stop shifting the blame for electing Republicans to black and brown people, who vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats. It's us white people who keep electing Republicans!

Geez. Wake up and smell the coffee, fellow white people. It's OUR neighbors, friends and relatives who are getting ready to vote for Trump again.

[TryLogic]

7. Perhaps a letter to editor would help push the needle further in our direction.

My recent letter which had been an email I sent to a conservative cousin:

You think Trump is a conservative? Really?
Would an honest or honorable conservative declare your father a sucker for having served in WWII?
Would an honest or honorable conservative call those who died serving their country in times of war, losers?
Would an honest or honorable conservative tell lies for the express purpose of hurting people? Almost every day.
Would an honest or honorable conservative tell lies in order to confuse, mislead, and misinform people? Almost every day.

I can respect an honest, honorable conservative as someone who has a different point of view and different priorities, but Trump is neither honest nor honorable. Trump is no conservative. He is a con man, pure and simple. I will give him this: He is skilled at it. His followers are so thoroughly duped that, figuratively speaking, they are walking around naked without realizing it. When people are so thoroughly conned they find it almost impossible to admit it. I assure you there are people all over the world who are well aware.

[Lock him up.]

10. I would add:

Trump knew how deadly dangerous the virus is in his conversations with Bob Woodward and admitted to play it down instead of chosing to lead the fight against it. As a result, over 140,000 died who did not have to: 140,000! Almost 50 times the 9/11 victims and it's far from over yet.

Trump has proposed to cut payroll taxes (for a hot-dog a week for minimum-wage workers) in a second term, so Social Security would run out of money by 2022-2023! Over 69 Million seniors could see their only monthly income dry down to $0.00 and be at risk of dying in the cold!

donny "hannibal" dRumpf's corrupt HHS's herd mentality will infect 70% of us and kill 2.5 to 6 million victims and will not work.

LOCK.HIM.UP

[BainsBane]

12. I agree about principled Republicans

but Trump supporters are not. I think it gives them too much credit to say they are duped. They eagerly embrace him and push him further over the crazy line.

[yardwork]

25. Nice to see you, Bainsbane!

[BainsBane]

27. Thanks, you too

Yardwork

[LanternWaste]

28. There's a big part of me that believes idiot Trump's humiliation this November

will be tempered only by his skulking back into his original sewage of fraudulent real estate deals that will fall apart due the bridges he's been burning.

[BainsBane]

29. Once he's out of office

He can be put in jail. The important thing is that he isn't President anymore.