Iowa Poll: Donald Trump and Joe Biden are locked in a dead heat six weeks to Election Day

[TexasTowelie]

Source: Des Moines Register

It's a dead heat in Iowa as a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden locked in a tie just six weeks to Election Day.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters say they would support Trump for president, and 47% say they would support Biden. Another 4% would vote for someone else and 3% are unsure.

A stark gender divide appears to be driving the race as men of nearly every demographic cast their support for Trump, a Republican, and women do the same for Biden, a Democrat.

“I don’t know that there’s any race in the history of presidential polling in Iowa that shows this kind of division,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll.

Read more: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/

[madaboutharry]

1. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016.

Iowa Farmers are furious. Suburban women are furious. Family members of those who died from Covid-19 are furious. Nothing Trump can do will get any these voters back.

[jayschool2013]

5. Obama

Obama won Iowa by 9 percentage points in 2008 and by 6 percentage points in 2012.

Here's to a return to that "normal."

[Statistical]

2. What is interesting is Biden is outperforming in these close states.

Clinton won the national vote by 2 pts but lost Iowa by 9 pts so she was 11 pts worse than the national vote in Iowa. Polls right now put Biden up ~6 nationally and he is even in Iowa so 6 pts worse than the national vote. On that relative basis he is doing twice as well in Iowa as Clinton.

It isn't just Iowa the same is true in lots of other battleground states. He is pulling people more in the states that matter more. Maybe some of that is advertising, maybe some it is Biden is a more relatable candidate in those state. Either way is shows some solid campaigning.

[Iliyah]

3. Same % numbers for Georgia . .

47/47 . . .

[OrlandoDem2]

4. I'm used to seeing numbers like this in FL over the past 20 years and often the GOP

wins. Somehow. I hope the DNC can overcome this.

[modrepub]

6. Population in Most States Skews Slightly Female

due to longer average lifespans. It would be interesting to see how voter registration breaks down between men and women; do more men register to vote than women? I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if Biden carried Iowa.

Notice how the MSM loves to talk about Trump "closing the gap" with Biden in states like MN, WI, NH, NV and PA but are loath to mention how close Biden is to carrying states like OH, IA, FL, NC, GA and TX?

[SharonClark]

7. A Biden win will depend on a massive and well organized GOTV.

We're doing it in Polk County, I hope the other heavily Democratic counties can as well.

[SharonClark]

8. Despite being a mostly white state, I'd still like to see polling for AA, Hispanics, and Asians

to compare with these Biden leads:
married women, 52% to 45%
unmarried women, 64% to 25%
mothers with children under 18 in the household, 55% to 39%
white women without a college degree, 56% to 37%
white women with a college degree, 54% to 43%
independent women, 55% to 31%
independent voters overall, 50% to 38% (2016 was Trump 51% to 38%)
independent men, 45% to 44%

[AC_Mem]

9. I just find this hard to believe

this time in our lives is truly dark vs light . If i were religious I would say it is almost biblical in nature.

I cannot wait for this to be in our rear view mirror.