Post-ABC polls: Trump and Biden in tight races in Florida, Arizona

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are locked in close races in Florida and Arizona, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls in two Sun Belt battlegrounds the president won in 2016 that are crucial to his hopes for reelection in November.

In Florida, likely voters split 51 percent for Trump to 47 percent for Biden, while registered voters split 47 percent for Trump to 48 percent for Biden. In Arizona, Trump’s margin is even smaller at 49 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among likely voters. Among Arizona’s registered voters, Trump is at 47 percent and Biden at 49 percent. All these differences are within the polls’ margins of sampling error.

The findings in the two surveys are better for the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations. The Post’s average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point margin in Arizona.

Overall, the surveys illustrate that the national economy, despite its weakened state, remains Trump’s strongest issue, and it is helping him overcome voters’ disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak.



Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/23/post-abc-polls-trump-biden-tight-races-florida-arizona/?arc404=true&itid=hp-top-table-main

[Squinch]

1. That's not good.

[VarryOn]

11. I agree...

Trump polls low. His voters, understandably, dont like saying who they are voting for, especially to live polsters. At a family reunion two weekends ago, several of my family admitted proudly to saying they had told pollsters the opposite of their true intentions. I dont put much stock in the polls. Get people out to vote is the key!

[lagomorph777]

2. If you know voters in AZ or FL, contact them and make sure they vote!

(Unless they are MAGATS).

[Rule of Claw]

3. I did a deep dive-it looks like the random sampling was way off.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/23/1979867/-ABC-Polls-in-FL-and-AZ-Potential-Random-Sampling-Error-in-Polls-Showing-Joe-47-51-in-FL-48-49-AZ?utm_campaign=recent#comment_78648572

Basically ABC just got one of those weird samples that happen to even good pollsters.

Better news? http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September22_U5GDL.pdf

50-47 Joe, LV, FL. Brand spanking fresh too, 9, 21-22.

Joe is up .6 tenths of a point from their previous poll.

Higher with whites, 3 pts better with hispanics.

[Mike 03]

6. Thanks for this

[Rule of Claw]

8. You are most welcome.

I actually joined up here to assuage the hand wringing once I saw the data anomalies.

[still_one]

4. I think the Arizona results might be an outlier, compared to other recent polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/

The Siena College/The New York Times polls from a couple of days ago indicated a 9 point lead for Joe Biden. Siena College is also rated an A pollster for what it is worth, just like the ABC/WP pollster

[Doodley]

5. Biden is being hammered by dishonest Trump advertising. I don't see a campaign

that ever holds Trump to account in a way that makes people notice.

[helpisontheway]

7. I thought he pulled most of his ads..nt

[TomCADem]

13. Fox News and SuperPACs

Fox is now just a 24/7 infomercial for Trump to the extent that Trump is even proposing regular appearances. Trump does not need to pay for ads. He just goes on Fox whenever he likes and says crazy that gets coverage elsewhere.

[TwilightZone]

9. Not really.

Trump's billion dollars worth of ads have had zero impact on the polls.

[dawg day]

10. when does Bloomberg's $100m ad buy start?

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. Trump needs both to win, Biden needs neither nt

[Polybius]

14. Trump doesn't need Arizona

They have 11 Electoral Votes. Trump had over 300 last time, and all he needs is 270.

[SoFlaBro]

16. With PA, WI, and MI in the Biden column....

....the P-grabber needs AZ and FL to even have a chance.

[Polybius]

18. PA is not in the Biden column

Biden is ahead by two points in some polls. It won't be easy.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. But he is almost certain to lose the Rust Belt states he won by 77,000 in 2016

At this point, Biden should win PA, MN, MI, with WI being the only possible tossup.

Without the Rust Belt states, Trump must win both AZ and FL to have a path to 270 (and even then he would have to win all of NC, NH, IA- which is not a given)

[Polybius]

19. We'll see

PA is what worries me.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. Dem gov and SOS will not lie down for any GOP chicanery nt

[DeminPennswoods]

15. Likely voters

Pollsters tend to get into trouble trying to evaluate who will turn out to vote. A DU'er posted a link to Ken Mellman talking about this and how pollsters need to figure out and poll the composition of the electorate. He stated about 20% of "likely voters" never end up voting and about 20% of "unlikely" voters do end up voting.