The RNC is wiring cash to Texas. Is it a 2020 battleground?

[BlueWavePsych]

Source: Politico

The Republican National Committee cut million-dollar checks to six state parties in August as it prepared for the fall campaign. But one payment stands out amid a torrent of money flowing to traditional battleground states: $1.3 million to once-brick red Texas.

On one level, it’s an astonishing development. But for those paying close attention this year, it’s hardly surprising at all.

Texas is more competitive this year than it’s been in a generation. And even though Democrats have been talking about this coming for, oh, perhaps 20 years, Texas has flown far under the radar in 2020 as states more essential to the battleground map (like Wisconsin) or more gettable for Joe Biden (like Arizona) suck up all the attention.

But eyes would have popped if you traveled back to 2008 and told Texans, when Barack Obama lost the state by 12 points while winning nationally by 7 points, that the 2020 presidential contest in the state would be polling inside the margin of error. Yet even in 2016, President Donald Trump won Iowa by a larger margin than Texas, and in 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by just 2.6 percentage points. The state’s rapidly growing and diversifying cities and suburbs are chock full of college-educated voters, a core constituency Trump has struggled to hold within the GOP.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/23/texas-2020-battleground-420313

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Worried about Texas turning BLUE ... can you say LANDSLIDE for Biden!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Iliyah]

1. Yes . .

[SharonClark]

2. Cook Political Report still has TX as 'leans republican'.

But it be great to have those 38 electoral votes.

[Nictuku]

3. I like this site

I like how this site follows all the races:

It does seem close in Texas.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Rule of Claw]

4. Based

on my evaluation of registered voter shifts, percentage of white support Joe has increased over Hillary, and likely demographic turnout, (TX will be about 55 percent white, most polls have it low 60s-57 in 2016) I have the vote 51-48 Joe if it were today.

I double and triple checked.

TX leans ever so slightly, to Joe.

[Rule of Claw]

7. Put another way

there is a small chance Trump wins PA and loses TX. And that is inevitable in some future cycle anyways.

Right now I have it 52-47 Joe in PA. 51-48 Joe in TX.

The key here is white vote. Joe wins TX in my view at 33 percent and PA at 42.

[Dopers_Greed]

11. That is unlikely to happen

Remember that if a candidate over-performs in one swing state, they are likely going to over-perform in ALL swing states.

Whoever wins PA, wins the election.

[Rule of Claw]

13. Which is not fair.

Because if Biden wins by 7 nationally he will likely only carry PA by 4. Which means he could be 50-50 to win the EC if he won nationally by four, like Barack did.

But now keep in mind, Hillary miscalculated and went off to AZ, and kind of assumed the blue firewall. Joe will run a campaign more similar to Barack, PA, MI, WI, all day and all of the night. so HIS four point win might show a map similar to 2012.

But if he accomplished similar results, demographic shifts show it as a 7 point win nationally. About where we are at.

So realistically Trump has no ability to keep this under 7, barring something ridiculous. And if Joe crosses low forties in any swing state with whites, he wins the state. 43 is the magic number.

Barack won FL with 37 percent of the white vote in 2012. Joe currently sits at 41. Right now he leads FL by around 3-5. PA 4-6.

Win those two NC is less relevant-I see no scenario where Joe loses Pa and wins NC. Maybe GA. But long shot.

Texas however..Wild Card.

[Dopers_Greed]

16. Agree that Texas is a wildcard

The suburban voters here, which are growing in number, hate Trump.

However, he is doing way too well with the Hispanic demographic.

So it could go either way.

[Lonestarblue]

9. Please, please be right. And if Joe wins here, there's a chance for MJ Hegar also.

It would be so sweet to retire Cornyn. And a Democratic upset in 2020 could mean another one in 2022 when Abbott runs for reelection. Be still my heart!

[lagomorph777]

5. Send lawyers guns and money

I went home with the waitress
The way I always do
How was I to know
She was with the Russians, too?

I was gambling in Havana
I took a little risk
Send lawyers, guns and money
Dad, get me out of this!

[StClone]

15. Yea

[walkingman]

6. I hope so, we Texans deserve better than the current crop of cowards.

[PatSeg]

8. In today's political climate,

$1.3 million doesn't seem like a lot of money or influence.

[BlueWavePsych]

10. Compared to the $200+ Million generated by ActBlue

the RNC must be enraged with jealousy

[PatSeg]

12. Oh yes

To be a fly on the wall!

[beachbumbob]

14. combine with GOP pulling ad buys in Houston area market

[Yavin4]

17. Why isn't Trump campaigning in TX?

Or IA or GA?

He loses any one of those states and it's game over, esp. TX. He needs to shore up his support.

[rockfordfile]

18. I don't buy it