Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: Politico

Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the two largest swing states in next month’s election, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to the first reliable public polls conducted after the candidates’ debate earlier this week.

The surveys, from The New York Times and Siena College, show Biden with slight but consistent edges in the two states: He leads Trump by 5 points in Florida, 47 percent to 42 percent, and 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 42 percent.

Biden’s leads are within each poll’s margin of error, but taken together point to an advantage for the Democratic nominee. The surveys were conducted Wednesday through Friday, after the debate in Cleveland on Tuesday but mostly before Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis early Friday morning.

Neither the Times nor Siena broke out results by day, but pollster and journalist Nate Cohn wrote on the Times’ website that data provided “modest evidence of a shift in favor of … Biden in interviews on Friday,” including in a still-ongoing survey in Arizona that will be released later.



Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/post-debate-polls-biden-up-by-5-in-florida-7-in-pennsylvania/ar-BB19FIYK?li=BB141NW3&ocid=DELLDHP

[ffr]

1. Because goosebumps

[gabeana]

2. 5 and 7 points are slight leads?

Trump is stuck at 42 in both polls

[riversedge]

3. "only 21 percent of likely voters across the two swing states said Trump won the debate Tuesday,

Post-debate poll finds Biden with leads in two key states
© Getty Images

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by sizable margins among voters in Pennsylvania and Florida following Tuesday night’s combative presidential debate, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll published Saturday.

The survey found that Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points, garnering 49 percent support among voters in the state, compared to Trump’s 42 percent. Biden leads Trump in Florida by a slightly smaller margin, 47 percent support to 42 percent, respectively.

Survey interviews began Wednesday prior to the announcement early Friday morning that the president and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

There was a modest shift in favor of Biden during survey interviews conducted on Friday following the news of Trump’s diagnosis, according to the Times.

The races in the two battleground states, both of which Trump won narrowly in the 2016 election, had been particularly close prior to Tuesday’s debate, although an ABC-Washington Post poll released Tuesday showed Biden ahead by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Last week, RealClearPolitics reported that Biden had a 1.3-point lead in Florida, down from 8.4 percentage points in July.

The Times-Siena College poll also found that only 21 percent of likely voters across the two swing states said Trump won the debate Tuesday, with 65 percent disapproving of the president’s conduct throughout the evening............

..https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519493-post-debate-poll-finds-biden-with-leads-in-two-key-states

[riversedge]

4. 65 percent disapproving of the president's conduct throughout the evening............

65 percent disapproving of the president’s conduct throughout the evening............

..https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519493-post-debate-poll-finds-biden-with-leads-in-two-key-states

[GatoMoteado]

5. i've been glued to fivethirtyeight for weeks now...

...i wish biden could pick up a little more steam right now and cut into the undecideds.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. "Biden's leads are within each poll's margin of error,"

The surveys, from The New York Times and Siena College, show Biden with slight but consistent edges in the two states: He leads Trump by 5 points in Florida, 47 percent to 42 percent, and 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 42 percent.

What? The 7 point lead by Biden in PA is "within [the] poll's margin of error"?

[DeminPennswoods]

7. Add the MOE to one candidate, subtract it from the other

In essence, double the MOE. If the lead is less than that number, it's within MOE.

But, the polling in PA has been remarkably consistent with Biden at 50 and Trump in the low mid-40s.
BTW, in my red area, I'm seeing more Biden signs pop up. I'm not seeing big additions to the Trump signs that have been out.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. The problem is the MOE for state polls in general

The Florida poll surveyed 710 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In Pennsylvania, 706 likely voters were surveyed, and results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

which makes them almost meaningless. But then we are coming down to the final weeks and I suppose they are what they are. It will be difficult to really know who will actually show up as a "likely voter".

[DeminPennswoods]

9. Not statistically

The pollsters use a statistical formula for figuring out how many people the need to interview for a valid sample meaning more doesn't mean better.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. "More" would be better

because you'd have a better chance to reach a more diverse set of opinions. The fact that many polls failed in 2016 due to misreading who was considered a "likely voter", is an example of that. And that includes people like poor Sam Wang, who I watched "eat a bug" (live) due to some issues with modeling statistical aggregations and misreading what might happen.

Gallup's 2012 spectacular poll failure is why they no longer do head-to-head Presidential election polls.

[reACTIONary]

11. I agree. There is a diminishing marginal utility...

... for each additional participant.

For very large populations the cost-benefit starts to go down at around a sample size of 1000. That's why national polls are almost always sample about a thousand participants.