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sabra

(30,404 posts)
Fri Oct 16, 2020, 03:23 PM Oct 2020

(Hill-HarrisX) Exclusive poll: Biden up in Mich., Pa., tied with Trump in Fla.

Source: The Hill

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but the two candidates are tied in Florida with just more than two weeks to go before Election Day.

A new Hill-HarrisX poll finds Biden opening up a double-digit lead in Michigan, which Trump won narrowly in 2016. The race is closer in Pennsylvania, where Biden has a 5-point advantage among likely voters. The perennial swing state of Florida, a must-win for Trump, is a pure toss-up heading into the home stretch.

Trump is dragged down by his handling of the coronavirus, which is the top issue on the minds of voters in all three battleground states. The economy remains the president’s best issue, although a majority of voters in these states believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction.

Trump’s backers are passionate — a strong majority are casting ballots in favor of him, while many Biden voters say they’re casting ballots against Trump.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521427-exclusive-poll-biden-up-in-mich-pa-and-tied-with-trump-in-fla

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(Hill-HarrisX) Exclusive poll: Biden up in Mich., Pa., tied with Trump in Fla. (Original Post) sabra Oct 2020 OP
I believe HarrisX is among 538's LOWEST-rated pollsters... regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #1
See, that's what I was thinking... SKKY Oct 2020 #2
In my mind bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #3
I think Cook is now saying the range is from a minimum of +2 to a maximum of +7. TheRickles Oct 2020 #4
Cook is + 2 to +6 max - NOT just +7. Tommymac Oct 2020 #5

SKKY

(11,794 posts)
2. See, that's what I was thinking...
Fri Oct 16, 2020, 03:33 PM
Oct 2020

...it seems like all the lower rated pollsters have this either tied, or 4-5 for Biden. But, the A or A+ all have it somewhere between 9 - 11 for Biden. After 2016, I really don't know who to believe. The Cook Political report changed their Senate forecast from +2 for the Dems to +7, so now I'm super extra psychotic between the hope and the anxiety we all still feel from the last time a Dem was a "sure thing".

bucolic_frolic

(43,062 posts)
3. In my mind
Fri Oct 16, 2020, 03:48 PM
Oct 2020

2016 was decided by 3 things: the Comey release which he was prodded into, distortion of issues by Russian 'both sides are the same' in social media, and Trump's ground game in small towns and cities. Trump spent an incredible amount of time in central PA, MI, WI. Someone on the HRC campaign should have pondered - WHAT is he doing there? He was agitating, activating ethnic enclaves, registering voters. It must have been a big deal for a billionaire presidential candidate to come to town. He's trying the same playbook, but issue distortion is not working, October Surprise remains to be seen and will be blunted by 25 million votes already cast. His new registrations are beating ours, but we registered a bundle in 2018.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
5. Cook is + 2 to +6 max - NOT just +7.
Fri Oct 16, 2020, 08:57 PM
Oct 2020

From their Website today re the Senate:


https://cookpolitical.com/ratings
Currently, the most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of between two and six seats.
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