'Warning flare': New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

[brooklynite]

Source: Politico

Democrats have opened up a yawning gap in early voting over Republicans in six of the most crucial battleground states — but that only begins to tell the story of their advantage heading into Election Day.

In a more worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP, according to internal data shared with POLITICO by Hawkfish, a new Democratic research firm, which was reviewed by Republicans and independent experts.

The turnout data does not mean Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden. Both sides are bracing for a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3. Yet the turnout disparity with new and less-reliable voters has forced Republican political operatives to take notice.

“It’s a warning flare,” said veteran Republican strategist Scott Reed.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

[Sherman A1]

1. Great!

[Mike 03]

2. Hawkfish is Bloomberg's data analytics company.

Go Hawkfish!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. GOtV Nov 3: "a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3" . . . nt

[paleotn]

7. That's possible....

I figure Dems are more likely to take the pandemic seriously and avail themselves of absentee and early voting compared to Republicans. So the massive turnout of early Dems isn't unexpected or necessarily a harbinger of a Dem blow out. But then again, we hit +81K new virus cases today. What's that going to look like in a little over a week? With a fresh peak, a lot of people who were waiting to vote in person on election day may be too scared to do so. The influx of new and less often Dem voters is very encouraging. So it's not just regular Dems voting early. It's also a ton of new Dem voters.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. Yup, old Rs less likely than before. Stats that raise my hopes are

The statistics that raise my hopes are like a report I read of a location (state?) that had a huge surge in newly registered voters and they were overwhelmingly Democratic.

I've seen a few reports around the nation that seem to indicate genuine enthusiasm to vote Democratic.

I'm encouraged.

[paleotn]

10. So am I....

but with my fingers crossed and my 4 leaf good luck charm in my pocket. Nothing left to chance this time.

[msongs]

4. nice analysis and opinion article and early votes mean nothing until honestly counted nt

[Thekaspervote]

5. Politico 2 siderism all over this story...so typical

[SWBTATTReg]

6. I think trump and his thugs are going to be surprised at the sheer volume of angry voters that ...

they stirred up (like a hornet's nest). People are sick and tired of all things trump, his mouth, his constant whining, ranting and raving.

[paleotn]

9. That's what I'm feeling...

Donnie turned out his base massively not just in 2016, but for the 2018 midterms as well, but Dems and independents still swamped them with a blue tsunami. This time, we get to vote out the bastard himself, not just his minions in congress. The turnout on our side is going to be even more massive than 2 years ago. Just my subjective opinion.

[birdographer]

11. My thoughts exactly

trump has no idea how despised he is in this country. He thinks he is our favorite president. I don't think anyone on the GOP side is quite completely aware of just how thoroughly pissed off we are. Four years is a long time for people who love America to see their country taken down by trump and his BFF putin. After four years, we have a chance to get rid of this cancer for once and for all. They grossly underestimate us.

[LymphocyteLover]

13. that is my fervent hope and dream

a landslide that will humiliate these evil assholes

[BlueWavePsych]

14. Ditto

[bucolic_frolic]

12. We'll be surprised by how close this race is, but also how widespread our field

which is already the case. But we have to vote on election day too. Not just rely on early voters. Few minds will change, this election is about who gets to the polls and votes.

[catbyte]

15. Michigan totals are encouraging, but this statement highlights the importance of GOTV:

John Sellek (R), Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”