Post removed

[Thekaspervote]

1. Oh pleeease! He's no better than the Rasmussen poll ...has a C- rating on 538

The Economist poll aggregator won’t even use his poll

[SheltieLover]

2. Shy?

Like the ones that walk around with assault rifles?

If anything, Dems would be more likely to not give outward signs of support in order to not have cars & homes vandalized & in order to stay alive!

Jmo.

[bucolic_frolic]

30. Plus they are incapable of embarrassment b/c they are so unaware, uncaring, and self-absorbed /nt

[SheltieLover]

40. Absolutely!

Great point!

[PSPS]

3. "saw interest in his (polling) company skyrocket in 2016" - says it all. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[applegrove]

4. That was the theory behind Kerry losing in 2004. Fact is it was an untruth about

Last edited Sat Oct 24, 2020, 08:42 AM - Edit history (1)

kerry having a sure win were everywhere on election day in 2004 so harried democratic voters did not vote at the end of the day when they got home from work. Don't fall for what the Karl Rove's of the world cook up as narratives go. That was the shy elephant theory. Be warned to ignore any purported polling that shows Biden way out ahead on election day. Indeed there should be no poll results reported.

[Skittles]

6. I don't ever remember Kerry being projected to "win in a landslide"

not at all

[applegrove]

11. Early afternoon exit polls reported Kerry had the win. That is what i meant

Last edited Sat Oct 24, 2020, 07:54 AM - Edit history (3)

by landslide. It was being called by early afternoon. Of course that was false and republicans said it was because Republicans were shy elephants who didn't want to answer exit pollsters and that was the reason why the information was so wrongly skewed by the afternoon. They said so after the fact. That Condi tried to warn the press the exit poll numbers were off. Of course word got around to the public Kerry was so far ahead and democrats didn't feel they needed to vote at the end of the day. And Kerry lost because he was not in fact ahead so much so it was a win for him by 2PM. The exit polls lied. Look up shy elephant theory.

When i hear "shy" republican voters i see the Rove's of the world building a narrative.

Remember Trump is expected to win election day before all the early and absentee ballots are counted. We need to vote vote vote. If we beat him just after the polls close - great. Maybe the shy Trump voter meme this time is to encourage depressed republicans to get out and vote and to not be depressed by the actual polls. It certainly paints a picture of a secret army. Don't know. I just don't want to hear the words 'shy republican' again.

[yardwork]

32. Kerry lost in Ohio after significant voter suppression and even possible vote tally manipulation.

Democratic precincts in Ohio in 2004 were given inadequate numbers of voting machines. People stood in line for hours to vote and then weren't allowed to vote when polling places closed. Serious questions about voting irregularities arose in Hamilton County and other places.

I believe that the elections of 2000, 2004, and 2016 were stolen.

[applegrove]

33. We don't agree on tally manipulation. I agree the right would pretty much try

a number of things.

[yardwork]

37. Well, there's no proof of tally manipulation, but the voter suppression was real.

[applegrove]

39. For sure. As was false exit poll results early in the afternoon in 2004.

[Captain Zero]

64. the exit polls were only off because the tally was manipulated between 10p and 2a on servers in

Tennesee where Rove and Blackwell had the tallies sent for a "massage".

[CaptainTruth]

77. New Court Filing Reveals How the 2004 Ohio Presidential Election Was Hacked

[link:https://truthout.org/articles/new-court-filing-reveals-how-the-2004-ohio-presidential-election-was-hacked/|]

[WinstonSmith4740]

58. There was also the problem of Ken Blackwell.

Democrats didn't learn in 2000...you can't let the person running the campaign for one of the candidates be the person who's in charge of counting the votes.

[yardwork]

61. Blackwell was the problem. He was Ohio's Secretary of State.

[WinstonSmith4740]

88. Yep...

And just like Katherine Harris in Florida, who was running the Bush campaign in 2000, he was running the Bush 2004 campaign in Ohio, and got to decide where and how many voting machines went where, and which votes were OK to count and which ones weren't. The voting laws she ignored or just flat out broke are unbelievable.

I used to be able to vote for Republicans. I stopped back in 1980.

https://janetsgoodnews.com/2018/03/31/katherine-harris-and-the-florida-2000-election/

[Polybius]

75. Why wouldn't it work both ways?

After reports came out that Kerry will win, why would only Democrats stay home and not Republicans?

[StaunchDemocrat1957]

21. Many Republicans have left him!

Military people, those who went off and started the Lincoln Project. I never ever saw so many people leave the Republicans and cross over to Biden.

[luvtheGWN]

59. Cannot compare 2016 to 2020.

In 2016, a lot of people had no idea how Trump was going to perform as President. Now they know.

In 2016, some 7 million votes were cast for the Libertarians and for Stein, because they didn't like either candidate.

However, the GOP spin doctors are saying that Republican registrations are way up over 2018. But then again, so are Democratic registrations, esp. among the 18 to 22 age group.

[mwb970]

36. I never heard of "Kerry in a landslide" until this very moment.

[applegrove]

44. I mean that his suposed numbers were suposedly so great on election day

that he was winning at 2PM. What do you call that other than a false landslide? Seriously. If someone were to be winning at 2PM is that a trouncing? Because they were not saying it was a slight lead.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

42. That's not what I recall.

I watched the TV on election night 2004 and expected Kerry to lose. Ohio was a pleasant surprise for me and I started to hope that he'd pull out an EC win.

[applegrove]

45. People talked for a year about the exit polls. Diebold voting machines.

There were several theories on why the exit polls were so off. And then the press alltogether even changed how they reported exit polls in elections after that. So that was a change.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

46. I recall that part.

Kerry won Ohio per the exit polls. Then I figured that the anti-democracy Republicans stole another election.

I'm mostly referring to the post about it being a projected landslide win for him.

[applegrove]

47. I used the wrong word. I will change it.

[onetexan]

83. K&R. Good to have poll results but the important thing is getting word out to Dems to NOT assume

your nominee's got it in the bag. Ain't over till the BLUE candidate is on top.

[Skittles]

5. lol, shy?

let's call them what they are - RACIST

[Sherman A1]

16. Precisely

Sums it up rather well.

[reACTIONary]

55. +10 nt

[regnaD kciN]

7. In other words, a doctrinaire pollster who got lucky ONCE...

I would note that, even after 2016, the folks at 538 have notably low regard for Trafalgar. And it’s a lot more believable to have made such a call when the numbers were within one standard polling error of flipping and there are a large number of undecideds than when one candidate has a 6- to 8-point statewide polling average lead, and there are relatively few undecideds.

P.S.: If these guys’ secret recipe for detecting and correcting for “shy” Trump voters is so exact, how come their recent polls still show Biden leading in PA and WI? (They haven’t polled MI.)

[betsuni]

8. That's silly. Racist asshole aren't shy.

[cstanleytech]

9. Tiny thing he is missing is that Trump lost the majority vote during the last election and only won

some very slim votes in swing states where as now he probably will not win many if any of them and stands to lose even more reliable red states.

[videohead5]

10. This only works if Democrats

Don't vote. I've said it before. Romney received more votes in Wisconsin in 2012 than Trump got in 2016. Those Obama's voter did not all die off they just did not vote.

[Sherman A1]

18. Precisely

It is all about turnout and thus far that is looking good.

[SunSeeker]

12. Bullshit. They're not shy anymore. After 4 years, every Trumper is loud and proud.

Trump being president for 4 years and normalizing racism made them all proud of who they are. They are not being undercounted this time.

[NorthOf270]

20. That's true

But there is a tiny amount of Trumpers who I think like to fuck with polls. They believe them to be part of the "left wing media".

[pwb]

13. What crap.

AOL still exists?

[Joinfortmill]

14. Nope, Nada, Just No

[NecklyTyler]

15. SHY is the same as NONEXISTANT

It is wishful thinking by the republicans to predict a landslide vote by invisible voters whom they cannot identify. The right wingers live in a fantasy land.

[katmondoo]

17. THE trumpers are never shy, they think they are wonderful people.

[Vinca]

19. Shy? Try suicidal.

[ashredux]

22. Even a blind pig finds an acorn now and then

[Botany]

23. Trump didn't "win" because of his "shy Trump voters" but because of massive Russian interference

n/t

[aeromanKC]

24. "Shy" Trump voters is just cover for Putin sabotage

[dixiechiken1]

25. Nope, not gonna happen.

Younger voters are showing up in droves. They are going to completely blow away any effect of "undecideds" or "shy voters." I'm starting to let myself actually believe that this is going to be a landslide.

GOTV!

[beachbumbob]

26. the shy trump voter? Thats laughable, what about the shy biden voter in a trumper household?

[ananda]

27. That wasn't even true in 2016 when..

Russian interference, hacking, fraud, and
voter suppression were in play so strongly
and the real silent majority didn’t vote,
namely youth and some disgruntled Bernie
Bro’s,..

But they are voting now!

[still_one]

43. The biggest factor that always seems to be left out is Comey's interference

[ananda]

68. That too. All part of the whole web of dirty tricks.

nt

[bucolic_frolic]

28. Until there is factual evidence

to actual cheating, we must examine what drove turnout in remote towns and cities. I have often blamed a series of ethnic networks because rural America remains populated by groups who moved there 80-100 years ago and the generations remain in the same spot yet maintain contact with extended family. These people never move. Researchers go there for nutrition studies because populations are so stable over long periods. Or, I have postulated these towns were wowed or somehow motivated by the billionaire-comes-to-town theory. He motivates local leaders with cash and promises of pet projects, they activate the grapevine.

Shy? No. I don't think they're hiding. They're just being them. From their perspective, what would motivate them now? Sado-masochism? Because there's a lot of that going around among Republican voters too. They hate you, they harm themselves, but as long as they can be satisfied you are forced to live in their same misery, they're fine with it.

[oldsoftie]

29. He's not accounting for the trump voters who are afraid to say they're NOT with him THIS time.

both are out there. But believe me, because I know some of them, there are trump voters who will never say publicly that they're NOT voting for him this time. because they know the hell thy'll catch from their friends.
THOSE voters didnt exist last time

[Iliyah]

31. "Shy" voters, you mean Russia and all the other

foreign entities?

How about "shy" republican voters that will be vote for Biden/Harris.

[modrepub]

34. There Are No Shy Trump Voters In My Neighborhood

They've got multiple Trump signs in their yard and Trump flags flying on their houses. Have ridden through the hinterlands of PA and seen plenty of Trump displays. These people are not shy, they are emboldened (to be asshats just like their commander in chief/god).

This person hit the lottery once and thinks he's a whiz at predictions. One correct prediction doesn't indicate mastery. He probably picked Repubs to hold onto the House back in 2018.

[DonaldsRump]

35. Trafalgar is a very strange company

Here's a thread that I started earlier this week on the oddities about it and its "chief pollster": https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214328828

[Tommymac]

38. Bullshit poll. Nothing to see here.

C-.

Just another trumper trying to milk out a few more $$ before the Killer Clown gets his ass booted into history's wastebin.

[still_one]

41. Just bullshit. There are no "shy" trump voters. This pollster is a C rated pollster

This is the same game the worst pollsters and financial analysts always play. They brag how they called it correctly in a specific election, but conveniently don’t mention the times they got it wrong

A large part of what happened in 2016 was due to Comey. They seem to brush that event aside

If trump doesn’t win, I suspect Trafalgar won’t be talking about that

All I know is trump has extremely low favorability

[The Wizard]

48. Tell us again

why voters will support a candidate who embarrasses them. There are those who don't want to be labeled a bigot and decline to say who they support.

[Illumination]

49. Have faith in the American people that they are smarter than to re-elect murdering Trump!...

[Tarc]

50. Any prognostication that relies on "it happened in 2016, it will happen again" is bullshit

He ran as the maverick, swamp-draining outsider, with the prime advantage that as a non-politician, he had no record on which to be judged.

Now he has 4 miserable years on which to be judged. Many...many, many...people are still stupid enough to vote for him, yes, but not nearly enough like last time. Enough former Trump voters see his failure and will either sit out or go Joe.

No one in traditionally Democratic voting blocs, except a few rich, entitled brats like Kanye and 50 Cent, are moving in his direction.

[Fiendish Thingy]

51. Nope. No evidence to prove this guy's "hunch". Nt

[BumRushDaShow]

52. From the OP article link --

Polling guru Nate Silver has been critical of Trafalgar, giving you a C-minus rating. “They know what result they want, then engineer their sample, etc., to get there,” he has written. How do you respond to that?

Nate Silver makes money off of clicks. God bless him for doing so, that’s his business. He’s got to be provocative. We make most of our money in the private sector only because we have a reputation for getting it right.

Do you consider yourself a pro-Trump pollster?

No. Don’t get me wrong — as a Republican, of course I would like to see him win, but you know what I’d like more? I’d like to be right.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/10/23/shy-trump-voters-will-power-his-win-says-pollster-who-called-2016-race/24660643/

And there you have it.

What is lost out of this faulty calculation is that if you have "W" total voters who voted for 45 in 2016 and assume that there are "X" number of supposed "silent voters" who will probably do so again in 2020, then you can't completely gloss over all those "Y" voters who were originally part of the "W" total who have LOUDLY proclaimed that they were NOT going to vote for 45 in 2020.

I.e.,

Z^(2016) = W = (X + Y)
Z^(2020) = (W - Y) +/- ?

So now your "W" original total is LESS in 2020 and the only way to make up for that is to gain NEW voters to make up for the "Y" difference and/or SUPPRESS the opposition voter (and this is with the fact that the "W" total came with a -3,000,000 in popular vote (but not in the right states to impact the electoral college).

[Blue Owl]

53. Oh look -- they're gazing at the toilet paper stuck on tRump's shoe

n/t

[cannabis_flower]

54. This guy

Has predicted every election right since 1984:

Since 1984, historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman has correctly guessed who would win the presidency, even President Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016.

Using keys or indicators to predict the nation's future leader, Lichtman's scale awards a true or false value to 13 statements. So long as six or more of these statements are true, the incumbent party stays in the White House. The keys factor in strength of the economy, incumbency, contests, policy changes, scandals, social unrest and even the charisma of the incumbents and challengers.

In an interview on "The Morning Show" with Kate Archer Kent, Lichtman explained that while elections conventionally are predicted by weighing the candidates relative to each other, his keys focus more on the record of the incumbent party.

Kate Archer Kent: Let's cut to the chase. Who are you predicting will win in November?

Allan Lichtman: Based upon my 13 keys to the White House, which gauge the strength and fulfillment of the party holding the White House, it takes six negative keys to predict their defeat. That would be Donald Trump and the Republicans. In late 2019, Trump only had four negative keys.

But his failed response to many crises that have arisen in 2020 has resulted in the most sudden and dramatic reversal of fortune in the history of the U.S. In the matter of a few months, three more keys have turned against the incumbent Trump. With seven negative keys against him, Trump is a predicted loser in his bid for reelection in November.




https://www.wpr.org/historian-who-correctly-predicted-every-presidential-election-1984-makes-2020-pick

[bucolic_frolic]

56. I'm just playing Devil's advocate and throwing what 'evidence' is out there

Bitcofer said last week Trump has registered far more voters in 2020 than we have. That's where his money went. But we grew our ranks in 2018.

Scaramucci tweet this am points to a close race because basically racists won't admit to pollsters they are voting for Trump, and they are scaring up more voters like them.

Those are our worries.

GOTV!!!!

[reACTIONary]

57. Their methodology includes....

The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:

Live callers
Integrated voice response
Text messages
Emails
Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.

I wonder if those undisclosed digital methods include electronic funds transfer?

[niyad]

60. ao-hell is still around? Nothing "shy" about the racist, hate-filled supporters of that murdering

orange, malignant, predatory traitor.

[concretebluetwo]

62. Two things:

This guy is trying to look like a genius in the unlikely event that Needy Amin does win the EC.
This, along with a couple of others I have seen this week, is seeding minds for the purpose of putting a Trump win in the list of possible outcomes to cover for rampant voter suppression, disenfranchisement, vote stealing, etc.

[birdographer]

63. Depressing

While I appreciate all the rebukes from everyone, reading something like this ruins my day. I tell myself every day that Biden will win and this will be over. My husband keeps saying it hasn't happened yet and might not. I try to ignore that opinion. And now this. Stress level just went up.

[newdayneeded]

65. Shy?

These people have billboards on their front lawns, huge flags run up flag poles, a different magat hat for every day of the week! if anything, I think its opposite of this, I really believe a good amount of trumpers will get in the polling booth and think "alright enough is enough" and mark Biden, but probably republican down ticket.

[IronLionZion]

66. That's wishful thinking. Plenty of 2016 Trump voters weren't solid and have left him by now

and turnout is way higher on our side this year. Biden's support is more solid with certain demographics who liked Obama because he was Obama's VP.

[BusyBeingBest]

67. They don't seem shy anymore.

My sense is that there will be more "shy Biden" voters than Trump voters this time around. Former Trump voters who have developed a conscience or are just tired of his stupid clown show, but are too embarrassed or too afraid of pushback among friends and family to admit it.

[Sloumeau]

69. Like Rasmussen, the Trafalgar poll's purpose is to prop up Republicans.

In addition, there was no "Shy Trump Voter" effect in 2016 or now. A few state polls simply under sampled non college voters because the pollsters did not realize how much difference there was between the two data sets. The better pollsters have adjusted for this.

[Linda Ed]

70. I'll stick with Allan Lichman

A History professor who has accurately predicted every election since 1984 says Trump will lose

[Scruffy1]

71. The whole polling "business" is strange.

Pollsters generally do not get paid for election polls. They are used as loss leaders to market their surveying abilities for paying clients and of course to get their name out in the public. No poll has ever been perfect and they all have inherent biases no matter how they are done. This whole BS of being right before doesn't carry much weight for me (including the historian). To me every election is a unique event with its own dynamics. For all my life the Republican party has relied heavily on negative advertising and fear tactics to reduce the vote and it has been an effective strategy. It worked in 2016. I don't blame third party candidates, but rather the failure to earn the votes of people who voted for a third party candidate. This time around there is much real mud on the incumbent that it is not working. The interesting part to me is that his numbers have been in the low forties since day one. Even the pandemic didn't move them over the long haul. The billion or so in ads and all the rallies didn't change anything. He is toast.

[SayItLoud]

72. What other "correct projections" has Trafalgar made that differs from 538 A rated polls? nt

[dalton99a]

73. Cahaly is a partisan hack.

Robert Cahaly is a pollster and political consultant who is the founder of the Trafalgar Group. He gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict the election of Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election based partially on the premise of "Shy Trump Voter Theory," which claims that poll respondents are afraid to reveal that they are voting for Trump due to a "social desirability bias."[1][2]

Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina and received a B.A. in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995.[3][4] Cahaly is of Syrian heritage[5] and is an Orthodox Christian.[6] Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997. Following a 2010 controversy in South Carolina, Cahaly was the successful party in the lawsuit of Cahaly v. LaRosa which defended his right to make polling robocalls. Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including: "Governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald J.Trump."[7]

In 2016 Cahaly gained a large amount of media attention for being one of the only pollsters to correctly predict the election of Donald Trump. In the months leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly's polls of swing states also showed Trump to be further ahead than other predictive polls.[8]

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214328828

[Dopers_Greed]

81. He looks like a poor man's Tucker Carlson

[traladeda]

74. Ashamed more like. Also, Russia.

eom

[McCamy Taylor]

76. BS. Same tactic was tried when the exit polls did not match

the votes in Ohio 2004. The so called "expert" claimed that voters who voted for W were too ashamed to admit it and they lied to the pollsters. The funny thing--this only happened in precincts that had e-voting minus a paper trail. If there was a paper trail the exit polls matched the vote.

This tactic shows that Trump is going to try to hack the e-vote.

[a kennedy]

78. He gets in AGAIN, I swear to GAWD I WON'T BE RESPONSIBLE.......

[Cryptoad]

79. Hah,,,,

ass they say in these here parts,,,,Even a Blind Hog finds an acorn every now and then,,,,,

[Dopers_Greed]

80. Trump can still win this time

But it was not "shy Trump voters" that made him win in 2016.

It was large numbers of undecided voters breaking for him at the last minute due to the Comey stunt.

How many times must I say it:

POLLING WAS ACCURATE IN 2016

[still_one]

82. Why is this in LBN. The assessment of a C- rated pollster?

[jcgoldie]

84. Look at the fucking yard signs, the flags, the facebook bullshit

"Shy" is the last adjective that you could use to describe these Trump assholes.

[Oscarthegreat]

85. Exit polls

The 2004 Ohio exit polls were not wrong at all. Kerry won Ohio, but there was so much voter suppression, including intentionally very long lines due to insufficient number of voting machines and ballots in Democratic areas, and a crooked Republican secretary of state who declared before the elections he was going to deliver Ohio for Bush.

[Lulu KC]

86. electoral-vote.com dismisses him

I rely on it daily to keep me sane. (Thanks to whichever DUer first posted about it!) It addresses this pollster's credibility in today's Q and A.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

[marble falls]

87. Trying to make lightening strike twice. He's an idiot. Posting his crap might even be alertable.