Charlie Cook Makes the Case That Polls Are 'Understating Where Biden is Rather Than Overstating'

[groundloop]

Source: Mediaite

Political analyst Charlie Cook reviewed the latest polling figures with MSNBC’s Chuck Todd and argued that the numbers are understating former Vice President Joe Biden’s standing, rather than overstating it.

(snip)

Cook agreed with Todd’s observation and said ,”I think a lot of these state polls are ones of let’s just say dubious quality, either method logically or slanted one way or the other,” adding “I think we’re seeing a lot of really bad state polls that are incorporated in these averages that send false”

Todd then asked his guest, if there is a mistake in the polls, “do you think it’s more likely to be we’ve underestimated Biden or underestimated Trump this time?”

Cook prefaced his response by noting that poll error can go either way but added, “If there is an undercounted group, I think it’s going to be college-educated suburban women.” As a result, Cook concluded that “will work to Biden’s benefit, so I think it’s more likely that the polls are understating where Biden is than overstating.”

Read more: https://www.mediaite.com/tv/charlie-cook-makes-the-case-that-polls-are-understating-where-biden-is-rather-than-overstating/

[mpcamb]

1. I think a lot of women will pull the Biden lever but not tell their Ahole gun-toting husbands.

Last edited Mon Nov 2, 2020, 07:23 PM - Edit history (1)

[DeminPennswoods]

6. The Dear Abby/Ann Landers marriage survey

Years ago, Dear Abby (or her sister) asked married men and women to drop her an anonymous post-card saying if they'd marry their spouse again. She was dumbfounded at the number of spouses who said my hubby/wife thinks things are great - I vote "no". Could be the same thing here.

[jcgoldie]

14. most crazy number I've seen was reported in a story on MSNBC yesterday about FL Latino/Latina vote

Latino men were polled Biden +1
Latinas... Biden +39

[pstokely]

17. and maybe even some non college educated white guys who won't tell their friends/relatives

the possible shy Biden voters in tRump country

[honest.abe]

2. Also alot of young voters may show up that the pollsters didnt account for.

I am thinking this is going to be a huge landslide win for Biden.

[Docreed2003]

9. The youth vote is up through the room this year, just in early voting

[cannabis_flower]

13. I read here earlier

The the 18-30 vote in Texas is 600% higher than in 2016. And most of the young people I’ve talked to loathe Mr. Trump.

[pstokely]

18. many young white dudes are loyal MAGAts

but some of those maybe shy Biden voters

[cannabis_flower]

20. Yes but

I also read somewhere else that the voters have been about 54% female. And the voting has been heaviest in the urban counties that vote blue. Harris county (Houston) has broken all records and have already surpassed the turnout in 2016 even before the Election Day.

[iluvtennis]

15. Indeed. YOung folks that were 14 -17 years old in 2016 are now voting age and they care

about social justice, climate change, women reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, etc. I think these folsk are undercounted.

[DeminPennswoods]

3. I read somewhere recently that the pollsters adjusted

to weight these college educated suburban women differently this cycle because they found that in 2016, this demographic was more likely to answer and respond to polling calls and were therefore oversampled causing the 2016 polls to be off the mark.

[True Blue American]

4. They were also angry

In 2018! Remember all the Republicans afraid to go to their own Town Halls?

[napi21]

5. Jack A** is making it worse by things he's saying at his rallies. I think we'll see a big Biden win

on Tuesday night! I cant wait to see JA crying his eyes out!

[pfitz59]

7. Crossing my fingers

The Trump assault on voters will likely energize fence-sitters.

[David__77]

8. Looking at the district polls, I can understand how he might conclude that.

I was glad to review a lot of data associated with those district polls, as it showed good trends when sliced and diced in different ways.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. That's an opinion from a real polling heavy weight

Charlie Cook goes back decades, always reserved, understated, well-respected, if you wanted an unbiased take on where elections were headed, Charlie Cook was who you wanted to hear.

Good news indeed!

And college-educated 'burbs women is the suburbs that ring Philadelphia, many consider it the place that will decide Pennsylvania.

[NorthOf270]

11. Chuckie Toad may cry. n/m

[BumRushDaShow]

12. I think there may be an undercount of moderate Republicans

who are voting for Biden.

An interesting phenomena (anecdotal though, based on lawn signs in one of the adjoining suburban counties to Philly - Montgomery) was that when Obama first ran in 2008, I recall quite a few "Republicans for Obama" signs.

Alternately in 2016, I noticed that someone had been planting Trump/Pence signs along a main thoroughfare that forms the Philly/Montgomery border, where they were placeed on the Montgomery county side.

However this year, my observations from my latest sojourn to do some food shopping in Montco, I saw some "Republicans for Biden" signs out (along with plenty of BLM signs) and so far, not a Trump/Pence sign to be seen. *knock on wood*

So at least around where I am, the "vibe" is different from 2016, and is closer to maybe 2008/2012 (and those are the voters we need back big time). Of course people sometimes forget that Biden WAS Obama's VP and I very much credit him with bringing over a large chunk of white voters who were willing to actually vote for a black President.

[StevieM]

16. People mistakenly believe that the polls understated his level of support in 2016.

The polls weren't wrong, the polls changed. 2016 was totally turned upside down at the end by James Comey. Actually, Comey had already had a dramatic effect on the election on a couple of other occasions. He dominated that race from start to finish.

[live love laugh]

19. In 2000 we learned that in order to steal an election the polls

have to be close—which explains a lot. If the poll gap is too large vote tampering cannot be explained.

We also know that high election turnout doesn’t favor Republicans.

They’re fucked and they know it.