An early poll of Georgia's twin Senate runoffs shows tight races

[TomCADem]

Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution

A poll conducted by a Republican-leaning national firm shows neither political party with a clear advantage in the twin January runoffs that are likely to decide control of the U.S. Senate.

The poll showed Kelly Loeffler at 49% of the vote compared to Democrat Raphael Warnock’s 48% showing – within the margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. About 3% were undecided.

In the other race, U.S. Sen. David Perdue had a 50-46 lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff, echoing the results of the November election when the Republican fell just under the majority-vote mark he needed to win outright. About 4% of Georgians were undecided.

It’s the first major publicly-released poll of the dual Jan. 5 runoffs, which are fast heating up. TV ads are already filling the airwaves, candidates are staging rallies, big-name politicians are headed to Georgia and outside groups are preparing to spend gobs of money.



Read more: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/an-early-poll-of-georgias-twin-senate-runoffs-shows-tight-races/DUDDDLIHCJH4LORTT57HAOUG64/

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To avoid a dysfunctional Senate, we need to invest in the Georgia runoff. Of course, a lot of grassroots progressives feel tapped out, but watch McConnell use control of the Senate to justify supporting a Trump coup. Anyone who is in support of rule of law and ending the Trump regime needs to support Jon Ossoff who is going up against David Perdue and Rev. Raphael Warnock who is going up against Sen. Kelly Loeffler.

https://electjon.com/

https://warnockforgeorgia.com/

[William Seger]

1. Fuck polls

I don't think it's the pollsters' fault; I think it's just a matter who responds to polls and who doesn't.

[TomCADem]

7. 'We need his voters' in Georgia: Why Republicans embrace Trump's last stand

This race will be framed as a referendum on whether Georgia's Senators will support Trump's coup attempt. It is vitally important for people oppose Trump to support Democrarts Ossoff and Warnoff.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/10/trump-georgia-senate-runoff-435786

There are two reasons why most Senate Republicans refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden as president-elect: Georgia and Georgia.

Simply put, the party needs President Donald Trump’s help to clinch two runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine the fate of the Senate GOP’s majority. And accepting the presidential results ahead of Trump, a politician driven by loyalty, could put Republicans at odds with the president and his core supporters amid the must-win elections down South.

On Tuesday, most GOP senators continued to support Trump’s legal fights against his electoral losses, despite no evidence of the widespread voting malfeasance that Trump claims has swung tens of thousands of votes to Biden in multiple states. That’s because when the presidential election is finally certified, Republicans hope that Trump will put on his red jersey this winter and help deliver his conservative base for Georgia’s Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.

“We need his voters. And he has a tremendous following out there,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune of South Dakota. “Right now, he’s trying to get through the final stages of his election and determine the outcome there. But when that’s all said and done, however it comes out, we want him helping in Georgia.”

[SergeStorms]

28. How quaint!

Georgia republicans still believe Donald Trump gives a shit about them. Isn't that cute? Republicans everywhere believe Trump cares about the republican party, about the country, about Senate republicans! Sorry, I don't mean to cry, but such sentimental thoughts by republicans really pulls at my heartstrings. It's just so cute and naive of republicans to feel that way.

[totodeinhere]

33. I don't think that a lot of Trump supporters have any illusions about him.

They realize who he is but they don't care because they support putting brown children in cages, tax cuts for the rich and eliminating regulations that protect out environment, among other things. And they are ecstatic about his federal court picks. So he could be the devil incarnate and they wouldn't care as long as brings them what they want.

[Gore1FL]

34. If the peaceful transition-of-power becomes an election issue in GA, we win 2 seats.

Certainly the GOP isn't that stupid, is it?

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Eh, duh...that's why both of these races have to be held again, being that they were so close

in results, that they got thrown into a rerun category. Why in the world are these poll people or those that commission them, out there so soon after the presidential election? I suspect that they're already trying to unduly influence the upcoming election(s) in Georgia.

[genxlib]

3. Anyone polling right now

Should have their head examined. If you aren't out looking for a new career then you should at least be laying low and taking some time to think about your failure.

[TomCADem]

12. Voter Suppression Targets Women, Youth and Communities of Color (Issue Advisory, Part One)

For polling to reflect election outcomes, perhaps we should have pollsters demand voter ID and require voters in large urban areas to only vote in a few polling sites. My take is that polling probably does correctly measure who is responding to polls, but that does not account for the practical difficulty of voting by many Democratic constituencies.

https://now.org/resource/voter-suppression-targets-women-youth-and-communities-of-color-issue-advisory-part-one/

As we move closer to the mid-term general election on Nov. 4, there is a serious concern is that turn-out will be very low for this crucial election. Already tallies from primary elections this year show that voter apathy is running high. According to a Gallup survey taken in May, 53 percent of registered voters say they are less enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections. Even in presidential election years eligible voter turn-out is only about 58 percent (2012). In 2010, a mid-term election, only 36.9 percent voted, resulting the Republicans taking control of the U.S. House and increasing their margins in many statehouses. The Republican Party, which is now dominated by Tea Party extremists, controls 28 state legislatures and holds 29 governorships.

For this election a higher turnout among the ”Rising American Electorate” – people 18 – 29, unmarried women, African-Americans, and Latinos – is essential. The RAE is a collection of demographic groups that is increasing in size and tends to vote for progressive candidates; estimates put the groups’ voting eligible population in 2010 at 144 million, with unmarried women as the fastest growing and largest proportion at 53 million – a 19 percent increase between 2000 and 2010. Eighteen to 29 year-olds were the second largest group at 45 million, growing by 15 percent over that decade. The remarkable RAE growth is occurring in many key electoral states, but we know that a majority are not registered to vote. And their drop-off in mid-term elections is higher than for other voters.

In recent years, the focus has been on registering and engaging the Rising American Electorate, but right-wing efforts to suppress their participation are well underway. If these efforts are successful and voters stay home, Democrats could lose control of the U.S. Senate and more state legislatures could turn over to a Republican majority. Here’s a round-up of what’s happening around the country.

[Nasruddin]

29. And...

Anyone reading or taking any stock whatsoever in what any pollster claims, likewise.

Modern polling is clearly bunkum. Ouija board is just as accurate.

[Polybius]

4. Who's more likely to come out to vote in this election?

Trumpers or Biden voters?

[TomCADem]

8. Well, Since Georgia's Republican Senators Are All-In on the Trump Coup Attempt

Republicans may have the advantage.

[LeftInTX]

25. Trumpers

I'm sure Biden's lead in GA is due to extraordinary high turnout. Trying to keep this type of turnout in a runoff is going to be a huge challenge.

Voters are repelled by Trump. The senate tends to be vague to low interest voters. Even my niece had to ask me who won the US Senate race in Texas. This was on Sunday and we were yacking about crazy Trump this and that. My niece pipes up, "Did MJ win for senate?" She votes in all the primaries etc.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. Need voter registration efforts

Fairfight.org - 23K new voters (turning 18) by January 5th are eligible. As 66% of newly registered voters in GA went for the Democratic Party - it could come down to them making a decision.

[AKing]

6. Forget the polls..Assume they are wrong...Vote like your life depended on it.

[Hulk]

9. I no longer trust any polls

I no longer trust any polls. We’ve been burned too many times .... it’s time to wise up

[TomCADem]

10. Polls Do Not Factor In Voter Suppression in Key Urban Areas

Does voter suppression matter? It does or it does not. Prior to the election, I said that polls assume that motivated voters can vote. You are right that polling is off, but that is due in large part because targeted voter suppression skews actual votes. What the polls can't take into account are dynamic efforts by State actors to simply prevent people from voting as I explained in this thread:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214393461

This was particularly true in the current election with all the actions that Republicans took to undermine VBM and to limit polling locations in urban areas:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/925501018/why-georgia-is-facing-long-lines-at-the-polls

Why Georgia Is Facing Long Lines At The Polls

TONYA MOSLEY, HOST:

Recent elections in Georgia have been marked by long lines at the polls for some voters, especially in nonwhite communities around metro Atlanta. And a new investigation by ProPublica and Georgia Public Broadcasting found that rapid population growth and a failure to add more polling places has contributed to the state's voting problems. Joining us now is Stephen Fowler, reporter and host of Battleground: Ballot Box, a voting podcast by Georgia Public Broadcasting.

Hey there, Stephen.

STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Hi, Tonya.

MOSLEY: So in the story you wrote about this investigation, you say that since 2012, nine metro Atlanta counties have been added, nearly a million more voters to the rolls. But the number of polling places in those counties have either closed or stayed stagnant. What has this meant for elections in Georgia?

FOWLER: Well, the average number of people assigned to a polling place statewide in Georgia has jumped nearly 50% since 2012. But that's also because the number of voting locations has been decimated. In 2013, the Shelby v. Holder Supreme Court decision meant Georgia no longer had to get permission to make those changes or had to prove that they were not discriminatory. So what we found in these big metro Atlanta counties where polling places that are two to three times larger than the state average and many of the long lines and problems we've seen in recent elections.

[Hulk]

11. Nor does it factor in deceptive responses ...

These trumpinistas aren’t you a bunch of ignorant fools. One of their primary goals is to get even with those “socialist liberals“.

[TomCADem]

13. Does Voter Suppression Matter? If Not, Why Do Republicans Put So Much Effort Into It?

Indeed, why did Republicans spend so much time attacking VBM, early voting, etc.? If the issue is just a bunch of Trumpian trolls, then it seems like Republicans are putting a lot of useless effort into voter suppression.

Do you have articles that quantify the impact of Trumpian trolls?

[Hulk]

16. Don't need any articles. It's my opinion.

They make be dumb enough, or racist enough, or greedy enough to follow that piece of shit; but that doesn't mean their "stupid".

Just curious...you think your voter suppression factor is the only reason polls are off? Interesting.

[TomCADem]

20. Opinion without data is just speculation

I think when we see a significant difference between polls and election results, particularly where there is clear voter suppression, the answer is not to disregard polls, but to work hard to eliminate voter suppression.

If you start take voter suppression as a given, then we are halfway to accepting that elections are not legitimate.

[Hulk]

41. Just give it up already

I'm not sure where you're trying to go if this but opinion without facts is a pinion.

Move on

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Silly comment. Georgia polls were pretty spot on.

The average of polls had Trump winning the state by a point. Biden is likely to win it by less than a point, so, we're talking very minimal movement.

The Ossoff vs Perdue race had it basically a tie - about where it finished.

Some states were off in their polls, others were pretty spot-on.

[Hulk]

42. Oh silly me...

They weren't too spot-on with Collins and Tillis now were they.

Express skepticism and you can expect a couple nitpickers to come out of the woodwork. Let's be positive now that helps right up there with thoughts and prayers.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Collins and Tillis were not running in Georgia, BTW.

[Hulk]

44. Seriously.....?

Guess I missed where I was speaking about Georgia specifically. Jesus...you have nothing better to do with your time?

[Drunken Irishman]

45. But I was. In my initial post I specifically said Georgia polls seemed pretty close.

[forthemiddle]

14. How did the Senate polls line up before the election?

I am so hesitant to believe polls anymore, but what were the final polls for these matchups before the election?

[djacq]

24. Ossoff was ahead in the last four polls, Warnock was way out front.

Ossoff vs Perdue;

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia/|

Warnock vs Loeffler;

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia-special/|

[Drunken Irishman]

37. Looks like the polls were pretty accurate all around.

[NoMoreRepugs]

15. In Stacy I Trust. Sent $1000 to her organization, it's split 3 ways btwn her org, Ossoff and Warnock

[BlueInPhilly]

17. Please get Robbie Mooks as far away as possible

THIS IS A MUST WIN!!! The alternative is just absolutely horrifying.

Donate, volunteer, anything!!!

And fire Robbie Mook’s ass. In Abrams we trust

[Dem forever]

18. Ga resident

I’ve lived in the suburbs of Atlanta for 40 years. Believe me people are sick of the Republicans. Many people I know have left the GOP. The state is kicking the ass holes out for good. Moscow Mitch can kiss my ass. I’m so fed up with the whole mess . 20 years ago I was a Republican. We will make sure this bunch of traitors are exposed and kicked to the curb for a long freakin time.

[BlueIdaho]

19. I'm done with polls.

I’m not investing any time in reading, digesting, or depending on any polls or pollsters. Stick a fork in them - their done.

[Politicub]

21. Polls are useless. Focus on Abrams and follow her guidance.

Get out the vote. It’s the only thing that matters.

[Auggie]

31. DONATE. Anything you can.

I sent $55.00.

[bluestarone]

35. I'd say everyone should send $46 in honor of

Our TEAM Joe and Kamala!!!

[Auggie]

40. +1,000,000

Great idea.

[LiberalLovinLug]

22. I'm hoping enough "moderate" R voters are put off by Trump's childishness in accepting reality.

[Steelrolled]

23. In other words,

we might see tight races, or might not. Or they might be sorta tight.

[LeftInTX]

26. It all depends on turnout......

[still_one]

39. That is exactly right

[djacq]

27. My wife and I plan to donate to Fair Fight;

Fair Fight;

[link:https://fairfight.com/|

other organizations,

Black Voters Matter;

[link:https://blackvotersmatterfund.org/|

Georgia Democrats;

https://www.georgiademocrat.org/

[greymattermom]

30. It's totally a GOTV thing.

So contribute to Stacey Abrams organization. Neither Republican candidate has any personality. They're both just getting rich from their jobs. And Trump isn't on the ballot.

[bookghostwriter]

32. Anti-Schumer Ads

I just read that Republicans are building their Georgia runoff ads around attacking Chuck Schumer, using his words about taking Georgia and going forward as a looming threat for all those " scary, nasty" things Democrats will do. This is what happens when you don't strike first. Democratic ads from the outset here should have been centered around Mitch McConnell, tying him to Perdue/Loeffler, with the details of all the ways he has stood in the way of progress for changes that will benefit working people, and how he only serves his wealthy donors. Then Republicans would have had to answer to that. But, as often sadly happens, Democrats cede the floor and wind up in a defensive posture.

[bucolic_frolic]

38. We have the most potential when we're behind

because they other side will figure they have it in the bag