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Sat Nov 14, 2020, 01:54 AM

'We blew it': U.S. reaches 'explosive' COVID-19 spread as virus is nearly impossible to control

Source: Yahoo! News

With COVID-19 cases increasing in 46 states, 10 of which broke single-day records for new cases on Thursday, America has officially entered what experts refer to as the “exponential” phase of spread — a rapid multiplying of cases that can’t be contained through traditional measures. On Thursday alone, the U.S. saw 160,000 new cases of the virus, more than any day since the pandemic began.

In California, the second state to surpass 1 million cases, thousands of people in cars lined up at Dodger Stadium on Thursday to get tested; in parts of Washington state, individuals waited four to five hours.

The current spike in cases — which some states are calling a third wave — has brought more than 100,000 new cases a day since Nov. 4. But that’s not counting those that may be going undetected. “We have widespread, uncontrolled COVID-19 in many parts of the country,” says Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And we know the cases reported are an underestimate of what is out there ... we’re missing many cases because people aren’t getting tested. So the true number is much higher than what we’re actually seeing.”

Adalja says that exponential spread means a virus is no longer increasing on a linear scale but is instead spiking at a rapid rate. Dr. Oguzhan Alagoz, an engineering professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who models the spread of infectious diseases, agrees, saying exponential spread refers to an “unbelievably high growth rate.” In this case, that means new COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country are doubling or tripling each week. Part of this, he says, is due to the fact that COVID-19 seems more contagious than other viruses.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/we-blew-it-us-reaches-explosive-covid-19-spread-as-virus-is-nearly-impossible-to-control-experts-say-210948870.html

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Reply 'We blew it': U.S. reaches 'explosive' COVID-19 spread as virus is nearly impossible to control (Original post)
Larissa Nov 2020 OP
BigmanPigman Nov 2020 #1
orleans Nov 2020 #3
Talitha Nov 2020 #7
duforsure Nov 2020 #36
Sherman A1 Nov 2020 #37
LymphocyteLover Nov 2020 #46
chowder66 Nov 2020 #51
Dave Starsky Nov 2020 #52
diverdownjt Nov 2020 #53
Evolve Dammit Nov 2020 #71
DallasNE Nov 2020 #72
notinkansas Nov 2020 #2
PSPS Nov 2020 #4
unblock Nov 2020 #5
PSPS Nov 2020 #12
unblock Nov 2020 #28
Fortinbras Armstrong Nov 2020 #57
jmowreader Nov 2020 #58
former9thward Nov 2020 #48
notinkansas Nov 2020 #64
former9thward Nov 2020 #68
notinkansas Nov 2020 #69
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #6
Aussie105 Nov 2020 #18
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #24
Aussie105 Nov 2020 #27
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #31
Blues Heron Nov 2020 #38
LiberalArkie Nov 2020 #43
llashram Nov 2020 #49
BumRushDaShow Nov 2020 #34
rooboy Nov 2020 #40
diverdownjt Nov 2020 #61
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #8
AZ8theist Nov 2020 #13
Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2020 #14
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #59
Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2020 #60
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #15
AZ8theist Nov 2020 #19
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #22
AZ8theist Nov 2020 #29
BumRushDaShow Nov 2020 #35
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #26
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #56
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #32
LymphocyteLover Nov 2020 #47
HermitageHermit Nov 2020 #55
Aussie105 Nov 2020 #20
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #25
Aussie105 Nov 2020 #30
Dave Starsky Nov 2020 #54
Withywindle Nov 2020 #75
paleotn Nov 2020 #42
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #62
llashram Nov 2020 #50
Grokenstein Nov 2020 #9
magicarpet Nov 2020 #10
BigmanPigman Nov 2020 #16
magicarpet Nov 2020 #17
paleotn Nov 2020 #44
mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #63
Beartracks Nov 2020 #11
keithbvadu2 Nov 2020 #21
Aussie105 Nov 2020 #23
Botany Nov 2020 #33
marble falls Nov 2020 #39
DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #41
paleotn Nov 2020 #45
notinkansas Nov 2020 #65
BigmanPigman Nov 2020 #73
notinkansas Nov 2020 #74
DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #67
1plus1equals1 Nov 2020 #66
dalton99a Nov 2020 #70

Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:11 AM

1. No, "WE" did not blow it...

The GOP and their greedy, stupid, self absorbed supporters blew it. Anyone with a triple digit IQ knew to wear masks and socially distance 10 months ago. I have no pity for anyone who hasn't masked up. NONE! They chose to ignore the health professionals. No pity!!! I DO pity those who have to work in unhealthy conditions and in an ignorant environment due to McConnell and the GOP.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:24 AM

3. +1 n/t

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:41 AM

7. THIS

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 06:48 AM

36. Agree 100%!

There is no we, it was mismanaged by trump and the GOP, and people were led to believe trump and the GOP's propaganda instead of the truth.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 07:47 AM

37. Precisely

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:23 AM

46. EXACTLY.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:21 AM

51. +1

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:39 AM

52. Absofuckinglutely.

This is 100% on the shoulders of King Shitgibbon, his Republican enablers, and his deranged minions. And let them go down in eternal shame throughout history for what they've done.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:46 AM

53. Yes Yes Yes....

I agree 10,000%

Day One--1.) Mask Mandate for entire country--MM

2.) $1000 fine--considering the consequences-not too high

3.) Begin prosecutions for Trump officials caught destroying US infrastructure.

Add your own to the list.....................

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:37 PM

71. Exactly! And they're still not doing what needs to be done. And so simple. Un-f'ing believable.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:13 AM

2. I'm certainly no expert,

but it seems to me that we won't get out of this mess unless the whole country goes into complete lockdown. The vaccine won't be available nearly soon enough. What else can we do?

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Response to notinkansas (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:32 AM

4. That sums it up.

There are only two ways to rob a virus of susceptible hosts to infect, other than just letting huge numbers of people get sick and die: Quarantine (lockdown) or immunization. Since a generally-available vaccine is at least a year away, this will require a federal effort just as it always required. Trump won't be out of the way for another 9 weeks. But we'll still have moscow mitch's duma blocking everything that will do any good. This will require a real lockdown this time PLUS regular direct federal monthly payments to every family to sustain them until there's a vaccine. That won't happen with a GOP senate.

If we had done a proper lockdown with direct regular federal payments at the beginning, the virus might have been eradicated. But we're far past that now.

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Response to PSPS (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:39 AM

5. It's not just the senate. It's a lot of Republican governors, too.

Those states are not going to cooperate.

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Response to unblock (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:20 AM

12. Sure they would. The residents of the state would be getting regular federal assistance checks.

Biden, or someone in his administration, could have daily briefings broadcast nationally, just like Cuomo has been doing in New York. Even in red states, if people are talked to as adults, presented the facts, and how the necessary measures work, they'll want to get with the program. If the governor goes MAGA, they'd lose their next election. The whole idea is to remove politics from the public health crisis.

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Response to PSPS (Reply #12)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:15 AM

28. That makes way too much sense

I totally agree that's the way it should work and that's the way it should have worked had republicans not decided to invent a right to turn themselves into biological weapons.

But as they've already gone down that path, I don't see them just abandoning it for reason and common sense.


And we'll see how much money there is to support what the federal government should do. Not much if Mitch has any say....

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Response to PSPS (Reply #12)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:57 AM

57. How can anyone think that keeping a plague from spreading is a political question?

It's only because the wholly incompetent Trump made it one.

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Response to PSPS (Reply #12)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:58 AM

58. Oh lord...you don't live in a red state

I live in Kootenai County, Idaho, the one time home of the Aryan Nations. We are under a county-wide mask mandate.

Easily half the people here refuse to mask. They claim it steals their liberty to do so. Last Sunday I ran a letter to the editor claiming the county should get rid of the mask mandate and change it to a prayer mandate...apparently forcing the whole county to go to church without masks and pray to the Baby Jesus will work better than just sticking a mask on your face.

No, as terrible as this sounds we may be to the point where the only solution is for Democrats and reasonable Republicans to mask and isolate, and the “masks steal my freedom” bunch to let the virus kill them. If they don’t want to live, should we force them to?

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Response to notinkansas (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:49 AM

48. Complete lockdown?

No food stores? No first responders? No trucking supplies? No electricity? No gas? What does complete lockdown mean?

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Response to former9thward (Reply #48)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:46 PM

64. States that imposed lockdowns

obviously made exceptions to lockdown rules for grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations etc. Everything else was shut down - restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, schools, sports. Anything non-essential.

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Response to notinkansas (Reply #64)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:12 PM

68. Overall there has been no significant difference in infections and death rates

between lockdown and non lockdown states. The same between lockdown and non-lockdown countries in Europe.

During the spring period Minnesota, a Democratic governor, classified 93% of people working in the state to be "essential". Where I live, Chicago, a Democratic governor and mayor, there was hardly any difference in rush hours in the area. Almost everyone was "essential".

The fact is what is "essential" to you may not be essential to me. And what is non-essential to you may be essential to me.

If you really think a shut down will stop the spread then why should food workers, gas workers, energy workers, first responders, truckers, industrial workers, etc. have to sacrifice their health and lives?

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Response to former9thward (Reply #68)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:18 PM

69. I agree that essential workers shouldered an enormous

burden during the shutdown. I disagree that it didn't help stem the rise in infections. (Chicago here, too.) It wasn't until things started opening up again that infection rates started rising at an alarming rate.

I believe that essential workers were given temporary salary increases during the shutdown. I don't think the increase was enough. It also didn't last long enough.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:41 AM

6. It's not as though this is the only country experiencing

explosive Covid-19 growth. The rest of the world is also having the same thing.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:53 AM

18. Really?

Australia?
New Zealand?

Australia is about to come out of 'lockdown' ie the borders between the states are opening up.

Total cases =27,703
Recovered = 25,301
Deaths =907

My state: South Australia
Total cases = 517
Recovered = 495
Deaths =4

Not the whole world! It can be done, just got to put your 'Freedumbs' on hold for the common good.

Too late for the USA. Best thing to do right now is to self isolate. Not because you have the virus, but because you want to avoid catching it.

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Response to Aussie105 (Reply #18)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:06 AM

24. Australia and New Zealand are not the entire rest of the world.

When you are an island nation, it's not so hard to isolate yourself.

Meanwhile, look at this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It is NOT just the United States that is experiencing a huge surge in coronavirus cases.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #24)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:14 AM

27. Ok!

Just showing what can be done if people work together.

But ignore that, and focus on worse places. Will make you feel better, perhaps?

Population of Australia = 33 million.
Population of America = 330 million.

Deaths in Australia: 907. America should on the same scale, be 10 times higher in deaths.

America, with 10 times the population - why isn't the death count 9,070 instead of 250,000?


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Response to Aussie105 (Reply #27)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 05:38 AM

31. Australia is an island nation.

This country is not.

The rest of the world is rising as exponentially as we are. Is Australia not experiencing a similar rise? If so, lucky you.

Could we have shut down all possible influences, had we closed all our borders, then maybe our numbers would be similar. But that didn't happen. People kept on streaming in to this country. And we have 50 states all of which behave very independently. And a not very surprising number totally ignored the growing evidence about the Corona Virus, didn't institute anything as basic as a mask mandate, saying things like individuals need to be responsible, even though individuals are totally irresponsible.

Did the several states in Australia likewise refuse to quarantine/mask/understand what was needed? Remind me again how many states Australia has? I bet it's a lot fewer than the 50 we have, even though the country is pretty similar in size.

The comparison between our two countries isn't valid. I'd go so far as to say, completely bogus.4

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #31)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 08:30 AM

38. The difference is in the mentality of the populace

Aussies have their shit together- unlike us. The shape of the continent or whether its an island is irrelevant- its the IQ of the people that makes the difference. Our caseload can't be blamed on people coming over the border- it's from homegrown spreaders.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #31)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:46 AM

43. The Aussies seem to be for what is better for the country, like banning guns.

The US citizens only care about themselves and their guns. Yep, big difference. If the US cared about people other than themselves they would not worry about how they look in a mask.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #31)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:49 AM

49. ???

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Response to Aussie105 (Reply #27)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 06:17 AM

34. Didn't your biggest states - NSW & Victoria

enact some pretty strict restrictions including closing borders between them and lock downs, etc?

Your increased rates obviously started when you were going into winter and thus the states/territories clamped down (with fines). Now that you are moving into spring, that would naturally help mitigate the community spread.

You guys have some showboating politicians but I don't think that most nations around the world have as many loons as the U.S. does, and who get as much full media attention yelling "FREEDUMB" as here.

And even worse, they manage to get themselves infected too and prance around infected as if it were a badge of honor.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 08:47 AM

40. You might want to read up on exactly what Australia and New Zealand have done (and are doing)...

and you'll see that our sucess in limiting COVID-19 has a lot more to do with management than geographical isolation. Being an island does not automatically guarantee a low infection rate - just ask Boris Johnson.

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Response to rooboy (Reply #40)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:08 PM

61. Yes exactly...

They isolated right away as everyone should have. But to be true...Australia is a continent like N. America.
It just happens to have only one country on it. Rooboy is right.. they did it smarter. If you can isolate 33 mil.
effectively...more can be done here.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:43 AM

8. Since I don't think a lockdown is in the cards ...

Esp. since Trump won't be gone for 9 weeks ... I'm guessing basically half the country is going to get this thing.

Best we can hope for is that the death rate turns out to be much lower than the worst case scenario, and we end up with herd immunity at the end.

This fight is lost I'm afraid. 1M are going to die, possibly more.

People are either too stupid and/or too COVID fatigued to be willing to do what is necessary.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:21 AM

13. Herd immunity is a pipe dream...

Look at the numbers:

As of yesterday, 11,064,364 total cases in the US. 249,975 dead.

That's a fatality rate of 2.2%. In order to get anywhere near herd immunity, you need (at a minimum) 60% of the population infected.
330,000,000 Americans; 60% infected = 198,000,000.

At a 2.2% fatality rate, that equals 4,356,000 DEAD AMERICANS.

If actual herd immunity needs to be upwards of 80%, well, do the math.

Donald Trump needs to be convicted for crimes against humanity.

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:24 AM

14. Not to mention that people get reinfected.

There's no long-term immunity after recovering from infection.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #14)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:00 PM

59. Then there might not be from a vaccine either

Since it's basically the same process.

The world is not going to be willing to keep wearing masks and staying socially distanced forever and government-enforced lockdowns as we're seeing don't go over well with sizable parts of the population.

I think we're heading for a million, if not millions ... dying from this unless this vaccine comes quick and damn near everyone gets it, and it lasts a bit.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #59)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:06 PM

60. I agree, and the vaccine will need lots of takers.

Either that or we get infect nearly everyone at about the same time, but that is will result in lots of deaths. I'm definitely not participating in that plan.

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:33 AM

15. Doesn't matter if it's a pipe dream ...

I think it's the most likely outcome at this point.

We have to hope that the overall 2.2% rate decreases as the cases goes up. Not out of the question if the most vulnerable have already mostly been taken out. I'm not an infectious disease expert so I don't have any way to guess HOW MUCH it would drop or even if it will. But I'd guess it COULD go down quite a bit.

If it doesn't ... then we're going to lose 4.3M people on the way to herd immunity.

Unless that vaccine comes FAST.

Lets make sure ... it's not any of us

Edit: significant flaw in the math there though is that you don't have to reach 60% in terms of people tested, you have to reach 60% of people who've been exposed and developed immunity. That would 'work' even if 0 people were ever tested.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #15)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:54 AM

19. I didn't say 60% of the people tested Lebo, ..

I calculated 60% of the US population. 330M x 60% = 198M. 2.2% of that is 4M PLUS dead.

And how about our effort in AZ, Mr L??? Cool, eh?

Too that fucking Nazi Biggs got reelected....

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #19)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:03 AM

22. I didn't say you said that, I said there's a flaw in that math.

The flaw comes in because while we know we have 11M tested, we don't actually know how close we are to having 60% of the popular exposed and (in theory) immune.

While it's highly unlikely, we might actually have 60% exposed right now and not know it.

Thus, you can't know whether you can extrapolate the 2.2% in the way you did there (and be accurate I mean). The 4M number would be accurate if you needed 60% of the population to have *tested positive* for the herd immunity ... but you don't

AZ has kinda impressed me, I have seen VERY few people not wearing masks in public in my few brief forays out the house lately. It's esp. impressive to me given where I live ... Biggs country, as you say.

I didn't vote for him

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #22)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:18 AM

29. oh, ok, I get ya. I was only using the known infections number from the dashboard.

So yes, we could have a higher infection rate and not know it. Especially since many cases are asymptomatic.
However, we could also have an undercount of fatalities since many deaths that occurred outside of a hospital environment may well be underreported as due to Covid.

Yeah, it sucks here in Biggs country. That fucker supports treason. A worthless Nazi if I ever saw one. Hope you didn't get some of his robo "town hall" calls like I did.....sounded like a cheap Goebbels propaganda movie......

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #22)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 06:36 AM

35. "don't actually know how close we are to having 60% of the popular exposed and (in theory) immune."

Most researchers, including epidemiologists and immunologists have found that "immunity" (the presence of sufficient antibodies) only lasts about 3 - 4 months. So "immunity" via infecting the hell out of a populace to supposedly promote "herd immunity", is useless and a potential death sentence for certain populations. And notably because there are a number of variants of COVID-19 out there with one version that is supposedly a predominate one in circulation at the moment (so far 70% of the infections detected) being more contagious but less lethal than one of the earlier variants that was far more lethal (e.g., the one that hit Italy early on).

So per the below, the early variant that devastated NY was a "D" variant and then a new one that they call "G" started elsewhere and has been spreading like wildfire -

This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world. Scientists are trying to understand why.

By Sarah Kaplan and Joel Achenbach
July 2

When the first coronavirus cases in Chicago appeared in January, they bore the same genetic signatures as a germ that emerged in China weeks before. But as Egon Ozer, an infectious-disease specialist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, examined the genetic structure of virus samples from local patients, he noticed something different. A change in the virus was appearing again and again. This mutation, associated with outbreaks in Europe and New York, eventually took over the city. By May, it was found in 95 percent of all the genomes Ozer sequenced.

At a glance, the mutation seemed trivial. About 1,300 amino acids serve as building blocks for a protein on the surface of the virus. In the mutant virus, the genetic instructions for just one of those amino acids — number 614 — switched in the new variant from a “D” (shorthand for aspartic acid) to a “G” (short for glycine). But the location was significant, because the switch occurred in the part of the genome that codes for the all-important “spike protein” — the protruding structure that gives the coronavirus its crownlike profile and allows it to enter human cells the way a burglar picks a lock.

And its ubiquity is undeniable. Of the approximately 50,000 genomes of the new virus that researchers worldwide have uploaded to a shared database, about 70 percent carry the mutation, officially designated D614G but known more familiarly to scientists as “G.” “G” hasn’t just dominated the outbreak in Chicago — it has taken over the world. Now scientists are racing to figure out what it means.

At least five laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although only one of those studies has been peer-reviewed. That study, led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and published Thursday in the journal Cell, also asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/?arc404=true

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:08 AM

26. Another thing about herd immunity.

It barely exists. If it did, then things like measles, mumps, chicken pox, smallpox, and a host of other such diseases would have been constrained by herd immunity centuries ago. Think about it. Even though almost everyone got those diseases, they still ravaged the countryside.

With vaccinations, herd immunity can exist.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #26)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:54 AM

56. I'm not actually trying to claim that 'that's going to work' without vaccinations

But I do expect we're going to get a vaccine and distribute it widely. Eventually.

I just think we have too many dipshits, too much GOP leadership, and too many people whose attitude is like 'well if I get it I get it, not that many people actually die from it, I'd rather just get it and get it over with IF IT'ST EVEN REAL HERPTY DERP' ... to really stop the spread at this point.

We're likely going to lose a million or more people at this point cause we didn't do enough to stop it early on, and we're doing even less now.

Hopefully it mostly kills off the stupid people is about the best I'm hoping for at this point.

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 05:40 AM

32. If herd immunity were a real thing,

then at some point things like measles, mumps, chicken pox, and other similar diseases would have succumbed to herd immunity. After all, almost all of us got those diseases, back before vaccines existed for them.

Oh, small pox. Lots of people got small pox. Surely herd immunity for that was common. Yes? No?

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:31 AM

47. however, we already know the infection fatality rate is about 0.9%

probably 2-3 more times people get the virus and never get sick and don't get tested. Obviously it's still bad to let the virus run rampant but it would result in fewer deaths than you calculate.

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Response to AZ8theist (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:50 AM

55. Confirmed cases is 11 million, total cases are more

Possibly a lot more.

Remember that a number of people have never been tested for this. I've never been tested, and I'm not alone.

How many have contracted the corona virus and didn't consult a physician or take a test?

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:58 AM

20. The death rate can only go up.

With hospitals overloaded, milder cases will result in death.

"People are either too stupid and/or too COVID fatigued to be willing to do what is necessary."

They never were serious about doing the right thing. The 'Freedom to die stupid' (aka total denial) was strong. Is strong. Will be strong.

Don't forget that the survivors of the virus are often left with lifelong health problems.

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Response to Aussie105 (Reply #20)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:08 AM

25. I don't believe it's accurate to say that it can ONLY go up ...

There could countervailing forces involved in it going up or down. You have a mentioned potential mechanism by which it might be expected to go up ... but that's not necessarily the only 'driver'.

My point is we don't know whether it will go up or down.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #25)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:22 AM

30. Learnt nothing from the Spanish Flu pandemic?

Once the health system is over loaded, mild cases will be sent home, to die or recover on their own, and serious cases will have doctors decide who gets treatment and who doesn't.
Only so many ventilators to go round.


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Response to Aussie105 (Reply #30)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:48 AM

54. Not to mention the collateral damage. When ICUs get swamped...

That cold you had that could turn into pneumonia is very likely to kill you, when it wouldn't have before.

That's not conjecture. That's how it works.

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Response to Dave Starsky (Reply #54)

Sun Nov 15, 2020, 06:31 PM

75. Yes, this! When ICUs get swamped....

People who were in car wrecks, who are having strokes and heart attacks, who need intensive emergency care for all sorts of other non-COVID reasons, will also die when they could have been saved by a less-overloaded health care system.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #25)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:45 AM

42. Umm, no. We know exactly what's going to happen, given the actions or inaction of politicians....

and the general populace at large. Infectious disease isn't magical. It's mathematical. And the probabilities of some countervailing forces of some kind is far more remote than Trump pulling out the 2020 election. The spread of a viral pathogen through a susceptible population simply doesn't work that way. This is well studied ground. Humans have researched, planned and trained for this moment for decades. Centuries, really. And when the inevitable scourge finally shows up, we failed completely. Just like we have virtually every time in the past. And not just in the US. Europe failed miserably last Spring. These are regions that not only know what to do but have the resources to do it. We simply choice not to and thus suffer the consequences.

In short. We're fucked.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #42)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:09 PM

62. Oh I know we're fucked and yes it's mathematical, but ...

Just because you're seeing a fatality rate of 2.2% by calculating total number infections as determined by testing/total number of deaths (since disease started) doesn't mean you know that's going to hold up when that number grows and time passes.

It could go up, it could go down.

There are many forces that could come into play over time. An advance in treatment techniques or drugs that makes it less likely infected patients die from it, for example. If the people most predisposed to die from contracting it have died in disproportionately large numbers at the beginning of the outbreak ... these sorts of things could make it go down over time.

Hospitals being overloaded could make it go up over time. I'm sure there are some others.

S'all I'm saying

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:50 AM

50. herd immunity??

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:45 AM

9. Well, that'll happen when idiots dismiss scientists as "elitist."

“If we could get everybody to wear a mask right now, I really think in the next four, six, eight weeks, we could bring this epidemic under control.” -- CDC Director Robert Redfield, back in July

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/if-everyone-wore-mask-covid19-could-be-controlled-cdc-director-urges/

The “if,” of course, has been the problem. Because masking or refusing to mask has become a political statement, only 62% of Americans said in April that they did so (the CDC recommended the practice on April 3); in May, 76% said they did, according to another MMWR study. The CDC advice followed weeks of mixed and contradictory messaging, and even after it was issued, President Trump and other national leaders fell well short of endorsing face coverings.

Although mask wearing does not differ by gender, it does vary by region of the country. In May, 87% of people surveyed in the Northeast said they wore masks when going out in public; it was 80% in the West, 74% in the Midwest, and 71% in the South, where cases are skyrocketing.

Face coverings almost certainly explain why the Springfield hair stylists* did not transmit the virus to a single client. Of the 104 clients surveyed, 102 said they wore a face covering (usually cloth coverings or surgical masks) during their entire appointment; two said they did for part of it. Both stylists were always masked.


*Two stylists met with 139 clients despite being symptomatic, yet transmitted to none of them because they wore masks.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:49 AM

10. Toxic masculinity run amok.

What they thought was alpha male manliness in reality turned out to be spoiled little men children tangled up in the masquerade of being the grim reaper of death.

These stubborn little children are killing off American citizens because they refuse to wear a fucking face mask to help keep this virus in check. Proceed with your stupidity and idiocracy you Neanderthal meatheads.

The Coronavirus now runs rampant across this country - and some think the exponential infectious rate now renders the virus nearly uncontrollable. The death rates will now spiral out of any human ability to mitigate or control.

How macho manly is that you fucking Fascist fools and trDump tools ?

Thanks to the Fascist "He Men" who are stubborn and selfish little boys who perpetually and habitually FUCK THINGS UP then disappear into the sunset,... as we clean up their fucking mess.

Aren't you sick of this foolishness yet ?

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Response to magicarpet (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:48 AM

16. Have you read this?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/us/politics/trump-biden-masks-masculinity.html

"Coronavirus Safety Runs Into a Stubborn Barrier: Masculinity
When political leaders suggest basic precautions appear unmanly, men are less likely to follow health and safety advice, experts say."


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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #16)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:53 AM

17. No,... had not seen it,...

... Thank You for the share....

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #16)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:50 AM

44. Reason number 3,467

why men live shorter lives than women. Like male peacocks and bull elk, we spend more time thinking about what's between our legs and completely miss that leopard in the brush. Same as it ever was.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #44)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:41 PM

63. Males kinda suck honestly ...

Whole gender just exists because females (the true essence of every species) can't do meiosis on their own.

There's a reason female is XX and male is a mutation with XY. Same reason we're all female embryos (physically) until however many months into gestation, when 1/2 of us start mutating in to the male form.

We're a bastardized offshoot of the true version of our species. The female.

Created by nature ... to have sex.

Though I suppose in some species we stick around and assist with child-rearing ... make ourselves somewhat useful in other ways

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:51 AM

11. The devil's greatest trick was convincing people he didn't exist... and that COVID was no big deal.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 03:59 AM

21. The Trump/Pence personal death count

The Trump/Pence personal death count

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 04:06 AM

23. America, I cry for thee.

A land full of promise,
A land promising so much,
A land come down to this?
America, I cry for thee.

Land of the brave,
Land of the free,
Land that welcomed huddled masses,
Yearning to breathe free,
Now gasping for breath.
America, I cry for thee.

Ask not for whom the bell tolls,
It might be for thee.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 06:15 AM

33. Thanx a lot Donny you just had to fire the people or disband all the organizations that would ...

.. have stopped the virus dead in Wuhan, China because they were the black guy's ideas.


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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 08:32 AM

39. Thankyou, Donald J. Trump: this is ALL on you.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:08 AM

41. Where is all this insight into how

many people are "undetected" coming from? Is it from those very early antibody tests that have since proven problematic? If so, that's a flawed assumption.

Here in Pennsylvania, we have 254k total cases and currently a 70% recovery rate based on no death 30 days after a positive test. That means we have about 76k active cases today. That equates to about .5% of our state population where 1/3 (4M) have been tested to date.

It's a strong indictment of our profit-driven hospital system that we cannot handle half-of-one-percent of our state being sick at one time and an even lower number actually needing to be hospitalized.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #41)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:07 AM

45. Bingo. That's one aspect of this tragedy....

Empty ICU beds, empty OR suites, etc. are money drains, not profit drivers. And the metrics aren't just occupied resources, it's also how fast they can turn those resources. How many patients they can push through those hospital beds, ICU wards, OR suites and fancy OB facilities. People who need medical services or they'll fucking die are simply metrics, numbers, profit drivers. The system is leaned out for maximum profit, like a goddamn potato chip factory. Thus, the inevitable epidemic of a deadly pathogen overwhelms the system. They knew this was coming. They simply chose, for financial reasons, not to prepare. Our system is obscene. And Covid-19 rips away the vale of "market driven medicine" to show how truly evil it is. It's ironic that no one expects our military to turn a profit every year. It's a necessary service for our public good they say. But whether our citizens live or die miserably? Oh, that' different.

Wait until 2021 and 2022 for the gigantic wave of bankruptcies from medical bills for people who required acute care during this crises. This herculean effort by our healthcare system isn't being done for free or on the cheap. The legacy of Covid-19 will live well past the time we bring it under control.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #45)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 12:51 PM

65. I am surprised that we are not hearing about medical bills already.

That seems strange to me. I'm sure that the level of care for hospitalized covid patients is extremely expensive and hospitals aren't the least bit shy about billing.

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Response to notinkansas (Reply #65)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 05:41 PM

73. I saw a tweet from a guy whose sister got a bill for

her husband's month log Covid stay in the hospital....over $1,000,000! I posted it on DU several weeks ago.

4 years ago I had to spend 4 days in the hospital...BL Shield paid for $32,000 and I had to pay $4,000 ($1,000 a day WITH ACA insurance)!

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #73)

Sun Nov 15, 2020, 01:56 AM

74. Yikes.

So many people unemployed and with no health insurance and getting bills they will never be able to pay.

Something's gotta give.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #45)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 01:55 PM

67. Thank you

Much better explanation than I offered.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 01:07 PM

66. Actually, humanity blew it

Yes, there are those who take this seriously (including my immediate family and I) and there are those who are innocent victims; but still yet, the virus is just being a virus and "stupid is as stupid does". The unfortunate reality is we will all suffer before this ends. My gratitude is with those who stand and fight this virus, those who try to do right by their fellow human and those who are just trying to be a good human; surely you will be looked upon kindly when this all ends.

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Response to Larissa (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 02:20 PM

70. Kick

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