Fauci predicts normal life won't return in U.S. before fall 2021

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: Politico

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, predicted on Thursday that normal life would not resume for most Americans amid the coronavirus pandemic until as late as next fall.

That timeline, he warned, will be contingent upon the U.S. “efficiently, quickly and effectively” implementing vaccination programs that have thus far lagged behind schedule, as well as “a rather strict adherence” to personal mitigation measures such as hand washing, mask wearing and social distancing.

“It’s going to take several months. ... It’s not going to happen in the first few months,” Fauci said in an interview on MSNBC. “If we do it correctly, hopefully, as we get into the end of the summer, the beginning of the fall of 2021, we can start to approach some degree of normality.”

Fauci’s remarks come as the Trump administration appears poised to miss its year-end target to vaccinate 20 million Americans. Roughly 12.4 million doses of vaccine have been delivered to the states, and about 2.7 million people have received the first of two shots, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.



Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci-predicts-normal-life-wont-return-in-us-before-fall-2021/ar-BB1co102?li=BBnb7Kz

[Marthe48]

1. Hate to say it

but normal is gone

We will move on to different behavior, well, those of us who don't trust socializing any more. The rest will go on in the essentially clueless, selfish way they have been, not even pausing to respect a deadly virus.

[Irish_Dem]

7. It is going to be hard to stop wearing masks, or mingle in large groups.

Returning to normal seems like a very big step.

[TimeToGo]

16. Well, normal doesn't seem normal during abnormal

But, it will come. Slowly. Little by little.

(Just look at history)

[Irish_Dem]

17. Right, will take awhile for me to stop wearing a mask.

Small steps.

[DeminPennswoods]

3. Fauci moving the goalposts yet again

He's been all over the lot which, for me, dents his credibility.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Fauci isnt moving the goalposts, it's Americans' behaviour and Trump's failures that is.

Fauci is just correctly acknowledging the current status of the pandemic and vaccination efforts, and making projections based on current data.

I’ll take Fauci’s credibility over an anonymous internet commenter’s any day.

[DeminPennswoods]

20. What are your observations in your own area?

I live in a red township in a red county, yet I see nearly everyone complying with mitigation efforts. And plenty of people are angry with Gov Wolf for imposing a 3 week shutdown of indoor dining, drinking, prep sports, etc, along with imposing a mask mandate over the holidays.

My friends and family did get together on Thanksgiving and Xmas, but it was immediate or close family only, if that. I didn't see cars or people coming and going from the driveways of my neighbors' houses either.

In my area, virus cases seem to be again resulting from outbreaks at LTC facilities and also at the huge nearby cracker plant construction site. There have been a few cases associated with schools and sports, but nothing major. Nor were there any big outbreaks associated with indoor dining before it was shut down.

Think about it. This is the heart of flu season, yet I've seen stories about how it's been a very light season so far. This would indicate that most people are practicing the recommended mitigation strategies.

[DonaldsRump]

31. Can you please explain why far more compliant countries like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea

are far ahead of us in terms of lack of fatalities?

Do you think it might be the idiot anti-maskers, perchance? You do get that, right - Trump and Rs made wearing a mask, social distancing, and lock-downs a political issue. You do get that, right?

Can you please explain why countries like the US, Brazil, and Russia, that made pandemic precautions a political issue lead the world in deaths?

I am very curious as to your thoughts.

[DeminPennswoods]

32. Because they're closest to China, had a head start

and more experience via the 2003 SARS outbreak.

My question is what have you personally observed? Have you seen lots of people without masks where you live or not practicing other mitigation strategies? I'm in Trump country, yet the vast majority of people I see are wearing masks, etc. I think perhaps blaming everything on those who won't wear masks might be too simplistic.

The so far light flu season in the US, which follows a similarly light flu season in the southern hemisphere probably is because people are practicing covid19 mitigation efforts, flu shots not withstanding. https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/flu-season.html

If your theory is true, wouldn't you expect lots of flu cases in addition to covid19 infections?

[DonaldsRump]

35. There is tons of literature that is contrary

Take a look at what happened in North Dakota and South Dakota. That is your real-world experiment that debunks many of the things you're mentioning: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/27/21534480/north-dakota-south-dakota-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-third-wave and https://www.ft.com/content/82311cae-7775-4359-9c47-c13ea1e4bee7 and https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142657327 .

Bottom line on covid spread: you need masks AND social distancing, as well as hand-washing/sanitizing. The colder weather brings people inside, the ventilation (like central heating) helps the spread etc. If you have both, the transmission of covid is massively slowed down. If you have one, but not the other two, the spread will still happen at non-negligible rates. https://scitechdaily.com/new-testing-shows-masks-not-enough-to-stop-covid-19s-spread-without-social-distancing/

Bottom line on why a country like Japan (and others) had few cases relative to the US: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340580463_Why_does_Japan_have_so_few_cases_of_COVID19. Also, take a look at this massive piece from The New Yorker as to how the US dropped the ball and allowed covid to spread in the early days (i.e., last spring): https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year

I do not know what the predominant influenza variants are this season, but my understanding is covid-19 is far more communicable than influenza. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm#:~:text=While%20COVID%2D19%20and,superspreading%20events%20than%20flu. With covid, you MUST have both mask-wearing and social distancing. From what I gather, it's not necessarily the same with the flu.

Bottom line on Dr. Fauci and the masks: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/world/fauci-pushes-back-against-trump-for-misrepresenting-his-stance-on-masks.html . His initial advice about not wearing masks was predicated on the lack of masks. Blaming Dr. Fauci and the mask issue is exactly from the Trump (discredited) playbook.

I live in the Bay Area, where, generally speaking, people are more compliant about mask-wearing and social distancing, both inside and outside. However, if people from other parts of California (or the rest of the world, for that matter) don't take the same precautions and then come into the Bay Area, that heightens the problems. Even here, I still see folks with their masks not covering their nose, no masks, or close contact outside (not so much indoors).

[former9thward]

37. Do you think it is ok to lie about masks just because they are not available?

That is what you are saying Fauci did. He could have said masks are needed but we don't have enough for the entire population and first responders need them the most. He could have said make up your own masks, they are better than nothing. He did not. Instead he threw away credibility with his reversal of statements. In fact, at the time he was pushing the transmission by contact theory of covid and that is why he said masks were not necessary.

That theory had been given out originally by the Chinese, even though they knew better, because they did not want their travel to other countries restricted.

[DonaldsRump]

38. Can you show one citation where Dr. Fauci "lied"?

Here is a video interview with him that is as crystal clear as can be about his "change in stance" or, as you call it, "lying".

There was no lie: there was, instead, a realization at that time that, because of the massive failures to be prepared by the Trump administration, that there were not enough masks of any sort available in the late winter/early spring 2020 except for front-line workers in healthcare, emergency services, etc.

Please show a video where Dr. Fauci himself is "lying" (as opposed to Trump, his sycophants, and/or MAGAts saying he did). Until then, there is this very clear video featuring Dr. Fauci himself to show he is NOT "lying."

[DonaldsRump]

41. Sorry???

What exactly do you think this means?

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs and masks for the health providers who are putting themselves in harm's way every day to take care of sick people," Fauci told O'Donnell.

[we can do it]

24. Exactly.

[former9thward]

33. You are also an anonomous commenter.

The fact is Fauci has changed his statements constantly. He originally said masks were not needed. They they were needed. (Though not for him -- he was caught watching a baseball game with other people without wearing a mask) He predicted a return to normal in the late summer of 2020. Then by the end of the year. Now late 2021. He will push it to 2022 and then beyond, just wait.

[DonaldsRump]

36. Please see post 35

[DonaldsRump]

39. Now, please see post 38 with a video interview of Dr. Fauci himself n/t

[Irish_Dem]

6. Trump, American people, and Covid have moved the goal posts. nt

Vaccine delivery is a disaster.

The American people keep traveling, socializing and not wearing masks.

Covid has mutated into a more contagious virus.

[PufPuf23]

8. Fauci is not the problem. Fauci the scientist has been in a difficult position

as a manager under Trump et al doing the best under the circumstances.

Even the projection of Fall 2021 for some return to normal is dependent upon the vaccines working and people masking, distancing, etc.

As far as I perceive, the American people are unwilling and unable to do what is required so the problem will persist, perhaps until the USA is a failed and dispersed State.

Don't blame Fauci. Fauci is not moving goal posts, Fauci has been in a close to impossible situation to manage as a good scientist.

Fauci deserved more support, even here at DU.

[BigmanPigman]

13. I am one of them.

I know he had to think of saving PPE for the medical system in the Spring and that is why he told us not to wear masks. I just wish he had told us to wear masks that weren't N95s. They would be less effective than N95s but better than nothing.

I agree with you that realistic Covid awareness, tRump's making it a political issue instead of a health issue, people choosing to be selfish and not wear masks or distance, vaccines being available but tRump's lack of leadership is screwing that up too, etc are all factors in trying to get it under control as soon as possible. This is out of Fauci's control and is not his fault.

[DeminPennswoods]

19. Yes, Fauci's been in a difficult position, but the thing is, he's guessing

and he's not making that abundantly clear. He was on CNN with Dana Bash earlier this week discussing herd immunity. He had said 70%, but is now saying 85%. Bash pointed out he'd "moved the goalposts"; Fauci admitted he had. He then said he'd decided he could push the percentage up. To his credit, he explained how he came up with the 70% figure by using measles trasmission as a comparable along with his own experience informing other inputs. The 70% was essentially a SWAG, but because of Fauci's position, everyone took that number as set in stone.

There's nothing wrong with making educated guesses, probably something many, if not most, of us have done, but people getting that information need to understand it's just your best guess.

Fauci's mistake is when there's no hard data, not making it clear, or stressing, that what he's saying is his best guess and things could change. When you don't this, then say something different, it damages your credibility.

[former9thward]

34. The US is a "failed and dispersed state"?

Have you looked at the infection rates of other countries -- in Europe? The death rates? Higher than the U.S. The surge there? Are they all "failed and dispersed states"?

[Raine]

11. EXACTLY

he's all over the map. I wouldn't take anything he says to the bank.

[DonCoquixote]

12. when we behave in a mann ner that keeps runing the plan

why are we yelllign at him. Ity is like "OK, I can make a pizza, I just need tomato sauce, a crust and soe cheese..but no, america does the equivalent of saying"I saw on the interweb that you do not need tomatos, nor cheese, not crust to make pizza, but this expensive goop, that iz sold on the itnerwbs.."

[we can do it]

25. Thank you.

The maskholes are the problem. The idiots who gather are the problem. Fauci is not the problem.

[we can do it]

23. WTF. Who the hell are you?

As long as assholes continue to ignore safety rules the pandemic will continue. It is not his fault the stupid and selfish continue to make this place the dumbest in the world.

[Pobeka]

26. When did Fauci himself predict when post-vaccine normal would return before this statement?

I hadn't heard him say a thing about how long it would take before this statement.

[EarthFirst]

4. In what regard do we attribute "normal"

Normal is shot.

For many; post pandemic anxiety is going to reshape everything from socializing in public to the economy.

It already has.

There is no returning to what was...

[PufPuf23]

9. What we knew in the USA prior to cv19 is over.

There will be a new "normal".

In my perception, there is a small subset that have weaponized cv19 as a method to get their own ends met and politicians, businessmen, and fools willing to grease the ride.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. Seasonal outbreaks of morphed strains each year, just like the flu virus

But with vaccinations there will be fewer cases, plus better treatments. It will be normal like a treatable flu if they can treat the blood clotting aspects of the disease.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. I know I have posted multiple times before

that when the ass Azar proclaimed that --

Every American will be able to get a coronavirus vaccine by the second quarter of 2021

(Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in an interview for "Axios on HBO." )

that this was complete bullshit.

I also expect that Fauci has unfortunately been forced to rely on the knee-jerk P.R. lies and exaggerations of the purported "timelines" from the appointees, in order to present his forecasts. And what has to be kept in mind is that even with multiple companies now providing vaccines, with a couple more due to join the effort soon, these companies are not just producing for the U.S. They are producing for much of the world, outside of some of the companies producing for China and Russia. That is no easy task AND these initial 2 companies also require 2 shots, so that is basically being required to produce double the number of doses.

Sadly, much of the "exaggeration" is to try to brush away the malaise from "COVID fatigue" and provide some "hope". I get that. But when you have a 24/7 media fine-tooth-combing and hyper-analyzing every tweet, interview, and press release with a strong magnifying glass and repeating them all with a powerful megaphone, then something's gotta give and break.

IMHO, getting "closer to normal" might happen in 2022, assuming this thing doesn't mutate itself enough to render the current versions of the vaccines, not as effective.

[LudwigPastorius]

15. Not to worry, I've got 600 bucks coming!

Let's see...that's $2.27 a day before my work starts coming back.

If I live under the overpass and eat grass, I just might squeak by!

[Zipgun]

18. Prediciting we will only be starting wide spread vaccinations in April shows just how badly Trump's

cronies have screwed up the response. I really question why the Oxford vaccine will not be approved until April. There are a number of advantages to the vaccines manufacture and storage. Getting it approved, plus the Johnson and Johnson vaccines, should significantly increase availability.

[DesertRat]

21. Back in March

I remember Dr. Fauci in March said it would take about "18 months" for us to hopefully begin to return to normal if "everything went right."

At the time I couldn't wrap my head around wait until the fall of 2021 before we could attend concerts, theater, ball games again.

[zanana1]

22. NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

[Pobeka]

27. It's still about wearing a mask, washing hands, physical distancing.

I'd guess around a hundred thousands live could be saved if 100% of the population diligentlty did those things.

Oh, and normal could resume by the middle of summer.

But, we live in america where we are free.

All this freedom, keeps us behind closed doors. The irony is stunning.

[Yavin4]

28. Let's re-assess once we get a change in leadership

Fauci will get a new boss which should dramatically improve the timeline.

[dhill926]

29. judging from the percentage of people...

that are refusing to get vaccinated, I think it could well be longer than that. Selfishness and stupidity is keeping this going....

[Withywindle]

30. This isn't what people want to hear but it sounds accurate to me

I work in the performing arts (behind the scenes, not onstage) and all the large arts institutions I know of are operating on this assumption exactly, and have been for some time. There are some events scheduled for summer 2021, but everyone knows those bookings are tentative and optimistic.