"Why Some Covid 19 Numbers Are Improving".
Source: CNN
You must scroll down to this heading....
WHERE THE US STANDS NOW..
The seven-day average of daily new cases is now 90,416 -- down from a peak of about 250,000 in early January, according to Johns Hopkins University.
As of Sunday, 67,023 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 -- about half the record-high of 132,447 set on January 6, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
But Covid-19 deaths are still painfully high. More than 42,500 Americans have died from Covid-19 in just the past two weeks. That's an average of more than 3,000 lives lost every day.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/15/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
I DON'T AGREE....3000 DEATHS A DAY IS NOT "IMPROVING". THIS HEADLINE IS A LIE IN MY
OPINION.......
Think about this..
This is the equivalent of 150 dead in a plane crash...... times 20 every Day...
so instead of 40 crashes a day, we are down to 20 crashes a day...
Irish_Dem
(47,390 posts)3000 deaths a day seems like good news?
Stuart G
(38,445 posts)...Think about this....I started studying auto deaths in the U.S.A. a long, long, time ago....
In the late 70s (I think 78 & 79) there were ...55,000 deaths on the highway
Last Year.2020....................................35,000 deaths on the highway
Is that ......................GOOD NEWS,? NOT to the families that lost someone.!!!!
Irish_Dem
(47,390 posts)It's a terrible statistic.
We become inured to bad news.
Salviati
(6,008 posts)That's the rate we'd be looking at if fatalities continued at the rate that they were in the 70's. One should not be so dour that one cannot appreciate real progress against a difficult problem. This is good news for the 90,000+ people who are not killed each year. It is a tragedy for the family and loved ones of the 35,000 who still die in auto crashes each year, but the fact that we know who is in this group, and we do not know who is in the group who are not killed each year doesn't mean that the improvement is not good news, it just means we still have more work to do.
Irish_Dem
(47,390 posts)Salviati
(6,008 posts)Shermann
(7,428 posts)Stuart G
(38,445 posts)....not anyone at all.... (except people that we live with, and that doesn't work well all the time.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)(We like to think so, anyway).
Many of the easy targets have been picked off already.
Turin_C3PO
(14,047 posts)may be keeping the numbers somewhat down. But Im not sure.
Scruffy1
(3,256 posts)I think the ones who wouldn't or couldn't mask and socially distance themselves have either already had it or got smart. I'm sure that there are other reasons, too.
Lucky Luciano
(11,258 posts)Its really that simple.
BigmanPigman
(51,627 posts)Shermann
(7,428 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)then the Thanksgiving infections kicked in, and they increased until Dec 18th. Then they started to decline again, until Dec 28th, and then they increased until Jan 8th.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
There's a lag of a few days, as you'd expect; the holiday effect is clear.
Shermann
(7,428 posts)What I am saying is that it is a very poor singular explanation when you look at all the data starting in September
Lucky Luciano
(11,258 posts)Last edited Tue Feb 16, 2021, 01:07 PM - Edit history (1)
I think that we have clearly mean reverted back towards the infection rate expected without a holiday effect.
roamer65
(36,747 posts)It has to be making a dent in the infection rate.
Maxheader
(4,374 posts)Winding down from the thanksgiving and xmas mass infections certainly helps but..
Wearing masks and social distancing are the real reason...
Stuart G
(38,445 posts)Maxheader
(4,374 posts)Thousands of lives could have been saved....
Stuart G
(38,445 posts)electric_blue68
(14,933 posts)JudyM
(29,274 posts)I would so love to see research on the political demographics/distribution of those who have died (exclusive of congregate care facilities and health care workers, since both populations have peculiar exposure characteristics). Betting that higher and likely repeated dose exposures had an impact.
Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)recently. And the sharp downward trend started before Thanksgiving in the upper mid-west and other states followed.
I feel this pandemic is like the weather, in that it is nearly impossible to predict, and often hard to explain, even after the fact.
Shermann
(7,428 posts)The MSM has been quick to cheer the sharp downturn in cases. States are quickly relaxing restrictions. It all seems very foolish when we don't actually know what is going on.
frazzled
(18,402 posts)I dont know what the national statistics are at the moment, but I check the stats for my state almost every day. I assume they are similar to other states. Of all the Covid deaths, 89.1% of them have been people over 60, even though they account for only 20.4% of the cases.
Please let seniors get the vaccine first if we want to bring the death count down.
KarenS
(4,086 posts)(he's a scientist that I've seen before) was saying they don't know exactly why the numbers are coming down some. He stated it definitely is not due to vaccines because not enough folks have been vaccinated yet,,,, But he said this is almost like the eye of the hurricane because they are expecting the numbers to surge because of the variants,,,, The right thing is to do is hunker down & continue wearing masks,,,, He said "Beware the Ides of March" I was just waking up from a nap and went back to replay the interview,,,, Not the news I wanted to hear.
BigmanPigman
(51,627 posts)He said that we are still not seeing the mutated virus yet and the next 14 weeks are going to be crucial. He said to think of England and their high numbers a few weeks ago since it is coming here next.
TheFarseer
(9,326 posts)doing high risk activities already got it. The weather turned cold and people stayed in more. People are not so jumpy about getting tested for exposure so fewer tests means fewer positives. I havent researched any of this. Just some ideas.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)The real number of cases is far higher than the Johns Hopkins number. We're probably starting to be near a tipping point where people have had it already and are not reinfected/respreading. Basically, the virus is hitting a transmission wall. We're currently roughly at 28 million infections on record. It's probably three to five times that. Case numbers are diving because a shit ton of people have had it already.
TheFarseer
(9,326 posts)That many more people have had it than was reported. I think its highly possible but have not seen reliable evidence that this is in fact the case. Of course nor have I searched for such evidence. . . .
LisaL
(44,974 posts)It was pretty difficult to get a covid test early on. Many people are asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, so a lot of them were not tested.
Official infection numbers are likely at ~25% of actual infection numbers.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)They are completely outsized relative to the more reliable recent ratios of cases to deaths, and those are probably an underreport (though, to be fair, there is very likely large under-counts of death numbers as well).
Shermann
(7,428 posts)The science just doesn't support that right now.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)He said he thinks the number of infections is actually about 3x s what's reported. If that's true, then roughly 80M have already had covid19 plus the number of vaccinated people (53M) is approx 130M, more than 1/3 of the US population.
Also saw Cheney's former WH cardiologist on MSNBC or CNN the same day discussing this. He, too, thinks there is at least some community-based immunity going on.
Shermann
(7,428 posts)You need 60%, and that's being optimistic. It could require 80%.
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)The sequence is infection(cases), hospitalizations, then deaths. So infections have come down, now hospitalizations have declined and deaths will follow in a few weeks.
As for another surge, I recall reading studies relatively early in the epidemic that "herd immunity" might be achieved with significantly less than 70% having immunity/been infected. Perhaps that's going to prove to be true. Right now, the US is at about 25% (80M) with vaccinated plus infected and recovered.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)The immunity to variants is less than to the original virus.
C Moon
(12,221 posts)We're back to infection rates that we had before Thanksgiving 2020.
Let's hope the vaccines and people wearing masks and social distancing continues.
LymphocyteLover
(5,654 posts)still the numbers are trending in a better direction and vaccines are ramping up
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)So, no, it's not a "lie". It's clear that it's the cases and hospitalizations it's saying have improved. They say "but" before talkign about the deaths.
It's also analysis, not a news report.
ProfessorGAC
(65,168 posts)Not sure why the objection by the OP is so strong.
choie
(4,111 posts)spring break is going to affect the number of cases. Considering how "open" and flagrantly anti-masking and social distancing Florida is, it doesn't bode well.
Initech
(100,102 posts)Actual number is less than 1500 / day. Still unacceptable but it's way better than it was back in December.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/