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mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts) Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:23 AM Mar 2021

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Emily McCormick·Reporter
Wed, March 31, 2021, 8:15 AM

U.S. private employers added back more than half a million jobs in March for the best gain since September, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. However, job growth still slightly missed expectations, even as February's inclement weather abated and the domestic vaccination program picked up steam.

Private payrolls grew by 517,000 in March, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report. This followed a revised gain of 176,000 in February, up from the 117,000 previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for domestic private employers to bring back 550,000 jobs during the month, according to Bloomberg data.

The services sector again handily led the way in recovering jobs, with service-providing payrolls climbing by 437,000 in March. Leisure and hospitality industries made the largest advances, with payrolls rising by 169,000. Trade, transportation and utilities jobs also rose by 92,000, and professional and business services jobs rose by 83,000. ...The goods-producing sector also posted net private payroll gains in March, with these increasing by 80,000. Construction and manufacturing jobs rose by 32,000 and 49,000, respectively, though mining positions edged lower by 1,000.

Heading into Wednesday's report, more timely data on the state of the U.S. labor market hinted at an upturn in employment at the beginning of spring. New weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic-era low last week, as the number of those newly unemployed fell by the most in seven months. Plus, the Conference Board's latest report this week showed that consumer confidence picked up to a one-year high in March, with stronger consumption trends and increased demand set to engender more hiring. (1)

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(1) https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-private-employment-payrolls-change-march-2021-131527071-121546711.html

Private-sector employment increased by 517,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/NER-March-2021.aspx

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-March2021-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 517,000 Jobs in March

ROSELAND, N.J. - March 31, 2021 - Private sector employment increased by 517,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

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Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Change By Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

11 replies

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Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 OP

Links to earlier reports: mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 #1

I still have some questions about what happened in Apr '20. Hugin Mar 2021 #2

You can link to those reports directly. mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 #3

Thanks, mahatma. Hugin Mar 2021 #4

Don't thank me; thank the economists at ADP and BLS who churn the data every day to mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 #6

The ADP and the BLS payroll jobs reports don't ask individuals whether they worked or not progree Mar 2021 #11

Slightly disingenuous of AP to use "missing expectations" - when the expectation is an estimate not NoMoreRepugs Mar 2021 #5

ADP, not AP. mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 #7

My bad - accuracy is everything. NoMoreRepugs Mar 2021 #8

De nada. mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2021 #9

ADP handles about 20% of payrolls. As for how they estimate the other 80%, I have no idea progree Mar 2021 #10

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

1. Links to earlier reports:

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:35 AM

Mar 2021

Hugin

(33,120 posts)

2. I still have some questions about what happened in Apr '20.

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:52 AM

Mar 2021

There's a deep downward spike and then it returns to almost a 'zero' normal the following month in the second chart.

Was that an artifact of the standard 'Have you worked in the last week?' question on the surveys? Was the return to 'normal' a correction WRT COVID in the surveys?

The first and third charts seem to indicate there was an initial rebound of -19,392 + (3,170 + 4,350) = -11,872 between Apr - Jun '20. I don't think that rebound was hires.

It was perhaps people who were returning to work and reporting they had worked during the time period?

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

3. You can link to those reports directly.

Reply to Hugin (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 09:13 AM

Mar 2021

Those show the effects of COVID-19 kicking in.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Hugin

(33,120 posts)

4. Thanks, mahatma.

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 09:29 AM

Mar 2021

I was just now looking at those from your OP.

It's nice to see what seems to be a return to sanity on the near side of the charts. Including the latest report.

I'm curious as to whether we'll ever really know the extent of what happened a year ago. I haven't seen anything like it since the dot.com crash in 2000-ish. With almost daily reports of companies laying off 100's of thousands.

20.5 million jobs. These are all people we know and love.

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

6. Don't thank me; thank the economists at ADP and BLS who churn the data every day to

Reply to Hugin (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 10:59 AM

Mar 2021

come up with these reports.

All I do is cut and paste. They do all the work.

Yeah, I know what you mean. It's a labor of love.

Thanks for writing.

progree

(10,901 posts)

11. The ADP and the BLS payroll jobs reports don't ask individuals whether they worked or not

Reply to Hugin (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 03:03 PM

Mar 2021

in the past week or past 4 weeks or anything like that. The BLS's famous payroll jobs numbers comes from businesses responding to the BLS's Establishment Survey.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey),
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly change: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

The ADP numbers come from payroll data and like I said elsewhere, they only handle about 20% of the private sector payroll, and how they estimate the other 80%, I have no idea, but I'm sure they don't call households in some kind of survey.

It was perhaps people who were returning to work and reporting they had worked during the time period?

Where the BLS asks people several questions is their Current Population Survey, better known as their household survey where they call 60,000 households a month. That is the source of the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and most of the other "jobs reports" statistics other than payroll job numbers and average wages.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

NoMoreRepugs

(9,412 posts)

5. Slightly disingenuous of AP to use "missing expectations" - when the expectation is an estimate not

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 10:58 AM

Mar 2021

something based upon a statistical "known."

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

7. ADP, not AP.

Reply to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:01 AM

Mar 2021

Automatic Data Processing. They handle payrolls for lots of entities. Mine too, I think.

This is the private sector report. In two days, we get the BLS.

Same bat time; same bat channel.

Thanks for writing.

NoMoreRepugs

(9,412 posts)

8. My bad - accuracy is everything.

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:03 AM

Mar 2021

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

9. De nada.

Reply to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #8)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:20 AM

Mar 2021

The Wall Street Journal.'s writers use the word too. "Economists surveyed said they expected an increase of xyz,000 jobs in this week's ...."

progree

(10,901 posts)

10. ADP handles about 20% of payrolls. As for how they estimate the other 80%, I have no idea

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 02:40 PM

Mar 2021

Automatic Data Processing. They handle payrolls for lots of entities.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm
Jerome Powell Fed Chair at the time:

"Several years ago, we began a collaboration with the payroll processing firm ADP to construct a measure of payroll employment from their data set, which covers about 20 percent of the nation's private workforce" - Jerome Powell, 10/18/19

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