Jobless claims: Initial filings dipped to a new pandemic era low last week

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Jobless claims: Initial filings dipped to a new pandemic era low last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, May 13, 2021, 8:30 AM · 3 min read

Initial unemployment claims dropped more than expected to a fresh pandemic-era low, with new filings inching back toward pre-pandemic levels as more vaccinated Americans return to work and in-person activities.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8: 473,000 vs. 490,000 expected and 498,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended May 1: 3.655 million vs. 3.650 million expected and 3.690 million during prior week

Weekly jobless claims have nearly halved since the start of 2021, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era high of more than 6 million last year. The last several months' worth of marked improvements coincided with a fast-ramping vaccination program in the U.S., and widespread easing of social distancing restrictions across many states. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019.

Initial claims "are moving in the right direction," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. "The labor market is healing, and layoffs should ease further as the economy moves closer towards normal capacity."

But improvements in the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims figures belie some ongoing strain in the labor market, even as more businesses reopen. Friday's jobs report showed a sharply disappointing 266,000 jobs returned in April, for a print well below the 1 million payroll additions expected. And the economy remains more than 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, the data showed.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-may-8-2021-174616833.html

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, May 13, 2021

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 498,000 to 507,000. The 4-week moving average was 534,000, a decrease of 28,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,250 from 560,000 to 562,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised up by 0.1 from 2.6 to 2.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 1 was 3,655,000, a decrease of 45,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 10,000 from 3,690,000 to 3,700,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,665,000, a decrease of 13,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 28, 2020 when it was 3,611,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,500 from 3,675,750 to 3,678,250.

{snip}

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip. Emphasis mine}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending April 24 was 16,855,264, an increase of 696,152 from the previous week. There were 21,863,056 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2020.

{snip the rest of the twelve-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 21-884-NAT

Program Contacts:
Thomas Stengle: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. So appreciate your keeping us abreast of the stats.

[twodogsbarking]

3. Moving in the right direction.

I believe that. Be calm, this will take some time.

[DallasNE]

4. The Number That Matters Most

Is "the economy remains more than 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels". And since it takes 150,000 new jobs each month there is not only that 8 million but another roughly 2 million jobs needed so we are still 10 million jobs behind where we need to be.

Said another way, this is going to take several years to completely heal. Do the math. If we averaged 300,000 jobs per month it would take 67 months or 5 1/2 years just to get back to 2019 levels. And 300,000 jobs a month is a tall order.