Tropical Storm Elsa Forms: Florida, Caribbean Should Track Forecast Closely

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: The Weather Channel

Tropical Storm Elsa has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to barrel toward the Caribbean by Friday, where warnings have been issued for the Windward and Leeward Islands. Residents of the Caribbean and Florida should track the progress of Elsa closely through the holiday weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Elsa was centered more than 800 miles east of the Windward Islands as of early Thursday. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Windward and Leeward Islands, where tropical storm force conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are expected on Friday. Those areas are shown in red on the map below.

Any tropical storm watches in effect are shown in yellow in the map below, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas on Friday.



Elsa is tracking quickly westward at 25 mph. That should allow it to arrive in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by Friday as a strong tropical storm. The NHC says rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Friday. This could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. That said, the system's fast forward speed will limit the heavy rain threat that might otherwise be greater.




Read more: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-07-01-tropical-storm-elsa-forecast-caribbean-united-states

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And from Accuweather - TS Elsa is a "record breaker" -

Tropical Storm Elsa shatters record, eyes US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Jul. 1, 2021 7:17 AM EDT


This satellite image, captured Thursday morning, shows Tropical Storm Elsa shortly after strengthening to tropical storm status. (RAMMB/CIRA)

A rapidly-developing feature in the Atlantic has set a new record for the earliest E-named storm in the basin's recorded history.

Tropical Storm Elsa formed early Thursday morning just over 850 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa is the fifth tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic.

With its formation early in the morning of July 1, Tropical Storm Elsa dethroned 2020's Tropical Storm Edouard as the earliest E-named storm in the Atlantic basin. Edouard formed July 6, 2020.

The feature, initially dubbed invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), was labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (PTC 5) around 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday. It was then upgraded to Tropical Depression Five later Wednesday evening.



More: https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-storm-elsa-develops-over-atlantic/971809

[jimfields33]

1. Just what Miami needs. Ugh.

Even if just rain, I can’t see how this will not disrupt the already challenging work the investigators are doing on the building still looking for remains. What a mess. I’m in central Florida so I’ll get some but I’m hoping for Miami to be completely sparred.

[csziggy]

2. Dang - I'm supposed to drive down to Gainesville Wednesday to have lunch with my sister

If that track holds, that's a trip that will have to be cancelled.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Well so far

NHC isn't showing it strengthening into a hurricane and if that track doesn't change (although they usually do), then it would probably be weakened by the time it hits central Florida (next cone update will probably be around 10/11 am ET).

Link to tweet

TEXT

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Here are the 5 am AST Thursday, July 1 Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Elsa. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

https://nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085512.shtml?key_messages#contents
Image
5:03 AM · Jul 1, 2021

[csziggy]

5. Even if it weakens, chances are there will be some heavy rain

Right now it looks as though it will go in between Crystal River and Cedar Key which means the worst of the rain will be over Gainesville. Some of the tracks at https://spaghettimodels.com/ show it coming in closer to St. Marks so we'd be driving from Tallahassee through the NE section where the heaviest rain will be.

If Elsa moves south of Cuba rather than across, she will strengthen more and that track tends to curve back and hit between Cedar Key and St Marks, so it would hit closer to Tallahassee.

Plus, my sister would be driving up from Tampa, so she'd also be driving through heavy rain. We may have to re-schedule. She's carrying some fossils up to UF for study and also bringing some boxes out of Mom's house for me, so we can do this another time.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. It might also depend on what the WAR does

and there was some disturbance just south of Bermuda that was slowly heading west too. Agree any heavy rain just might not be worth it.

I usually follow Levi Cohan's analyses (from Tropical Tidbits) to get a feel on what to look for (he did a video yesterday on the storm just before it tipped over into becoming a TS - for some reason, the youtube version of it at youtube was having issues but got the twitter youtube video link) -

Link to tweet

TEXT

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Wednesday video discussion on a tropical storm likely to form and approach the Caribbean by Friday:
A Tropical Storm Likely to Form and Approach the Caribbean by Friday
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594Follow my Twitter for more fre...
youtube.com
12:20 PM · Jun 30, 2021

[modrepub]

4. Cautionary Notes

I'm a bit of a naysayer here. Most people seem to have a morbid fear/fascination with tropical systems. (Truth is heat waves and droughts are among the most dangerous and damaging weather phenomenon but they don't have the "sex" appeal of storms). This system is tracking pretty far south across the Caribbean Sea. That's usually a graveyard for tropical systems due to general atmospheric subsidence over the area. The nearby South American land surface is prone to vertical convection due to daytime heating, which drives subsidence over the nearby ocean surface. Subsidence is not conductive to tropical storm formation or maintenance.

If track holds up, the system may weaken or dissipate if it spends a significant amount of time in the Caribbean Sea. Not to say this shouldn't be monitored but (atmospheric) models shouldn't be treated as gospel much past 48 hours. Model storm tracks, however, are probably more accurate than storm intensity forecasts.

Don't get me started on AccuWeather...

[csziggy]

6. I'm looking at the consus among models shown at

https://spaghettimodels.com/





Those look as though Elsa will likely hit somewhere between St. Marks and Crystal River.

My plans made last night were that one Wednesday I'd be driving from Tallahassee to Gainesville to meet my sister who will be driving up from Tampa. Either way, we'd both be driving through significant rain given the current forecast. I'd really rather not do that.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. The issue in this case

is that sheer (from tradewinds/westerlies) is not present as strongly as it normally is this time of year, so this little storm is not going to sheer apart as storms often do this early in the season at that latitude.

However if it takes a path that runs it over any of the big islands, then it might be toast.

And no, I don't follow either TWC or Accuweather (although I just include them as minor data supplements as part of my hobby) but I was waiting for some of the regular news sites to put up a headline early this morning but they are obviously doing TFG and Cosby stuff.

I post on a weather board with Mets (not DU's) but also like to follow Levi Cohan from Tropical Tidbits during hurricane season to get some of his thoughts and to get to some of the models - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/-

[lark]

7. Fucking climate change assholes need to be purged from office.

They are killing us! I was born and raised in FL and moved away to CA for college in 1971. We never had hurricanes until August back in the day, never. Now it's the first day of July and there's a named storm - this is not normal or right or tenable for the future. We used to have 13-14 days of freezing every year, even as far back as 30 years ago. WE now get only 3-4 days on average for the last 4 years. WE used to have temps down in the teens every year, this year it only got down to 28 on the coldest night, same with last year and the year before. Climate change is here now folks and we've got to get rid of fossil fuels.

Our issue is we have 5 huge oak trees that have branches overhanging our house and those would all have to be cut down or at least major branches removed, for solar panels to work and would greatly expand our need for cooling without the trees to shade the house. Plus the expense of cutting/trimming would be enormous. I guess we will have to investigate getting some installed in our yard, but we do have a frisky dog and there are lots of cats in the neighborhood so not sure this is doable. We got new windows but need to do a lot more.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. "Now it's the first day of July and there's a named storm"

There was a "named storm" back in May, the week before Memorial Day.

There had been debate in NHC about changing the season start date to be earlier than the traditional "June 1st", so starting this year, they decided to start their "Tropical Outlook" discussions in mid-May.

[hay rick]

11. Elsa? Let me be the first to say holy cow!

[BumRushDaShow]

13. Or

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

12. Way too far out to make any accurate path predictions, wait and see what steering conditions change

[Hekate]

14. All I hope is it hits Trump's rally -- and Mar A Lago

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan) did an updated video earlier today

Link to tweet

TEXT

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Elsa, approaching the Windward Islands:
Tropical Storm Elsa a Little Stronger and Approaching the Windward...
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594Follow my Twitter for more fre...
youtube.com
1:05 PM · Jul 1, 2021

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

16. Cat 1 now, 75mph, WNW @28, it should hit Cuba in a couple days, then we will see where its going

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Yup. The cone had been shifting ever so slightly to the NW too

taking it across Cuba through a wider part of the island than previously shown and that could shred it apart.

You can sortof see where the best path would be for it from the sheer profile in the vicinity -



ETA to a include these -

Link to tweet

TEXT

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
#Elsa has strengthened into a hurricane. A sustained wind of 74 mph with a gust to 86 mph was recently reported at Barbados. A special advisory is being issued shortly. More info: http://hurricanes.gov
Image
7:54 AM · Jul 2, 2021

Link to tweet

TEXT

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Here are the 830 AM AST Key Messages for the Special Advisory for Hurricane #Elsa. Hurricane conditions forecast to spread across portions of the southern Leeward Islands over the next few hours. Next complete advisory at 11 AM AST. More info: http://hurricanes.gov
Image
8:37 AM · Jul 2, 2021

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

18. TWC has purposely left out the Euro models showing that! the disaster porn channel wants ratings

I get all the tropical weather updates on one page from all the sources...


http://trackthetropics.com/elsa-2021/

[BumRushDaShow]

19. The ECMWF has sucked the past 2 years

I think they did some sort of upgrade and it has been swinging and missing and caving ever since.

Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) put up his latest video last night -

Link to tweet

TEXT

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Friday night video update on Hurricane #Elsa, racing through the eastern Caribbean:
Hurricane Elsa at a Crossroads; Will Impact Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba...
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594Follow my Twitter for more fre...
youtube.com
8:43 PM · Jul 2, 2021

ETA - I saw it was moving so fast that it blew itself apart and is back to being a TS again. It's like that funny washing machine video.