Gavin Newsom sees another alarming California recall poll

[brooklynite]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

[div class"excerpt"]Last week, an Emerson College/Nexstar media poll showed the Gavin Newsom recall election within five points, which came as a surprise since previous polling in May found opposition to the recall beating support by double digits.

Some shrugged off the result because Emerson College/Nexstar has typically been the poll the governor performs the worst in, but on Tuesday, a brand new UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies/Los Angeles Times poll showed the recall within three percentage points.

The poll, conducted in July among likely recall election voters, found 47% support for recalling Newsom, and 50% opposition. The last Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll in May, which was conducted among only registered voters, found support at 36% and opposition at 49%.

For this July poll, Berkeley again provided the raw registered voters numbers, and found that an identical 36% supported the recall, and opposition ticked up to 51%. However, the pollster no longer considers a registered voter screen useful, since there's a wide enthusiasm gap between the two sides (90% of Republicans are highly interested in the recall election, compared to only 58% of Democrats and 53% of independents).

Read more: https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-recall/article/poll-California-Gavin-Newsom-recall-Berkeley-close-16342475.php

---

An off-cycle election tends to have a low turnout of the most committed voters.

[rockfordfile]

1. interesting

[brush]

5. Doesn't seem much different than previous polls...

Opposition to the recall is still much higher than support among registered voters. The headline of this OP is clickbait.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Not really. Registered Voters is a bad sample to go off of.

Likely Voters tells you who's likely to vote.

I haven't found a RV model that aligned with an election in a long time. Plenty of registered voters aren't going to vote.

Newsome should be concerned.

[brush]

19. Seriously? Calif. is one of the bluest states.

If one says "if this happens" or "if that happens", any far fetched thing can happen. But a recall f Newsom is not on of them.

See post 3.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Yes, seriously.

This is why registered voters is not a good model to use. It's an off-election in the middle of September where only the diehards will come out and vote. That alone makes things way closer than they typically would be if this were a typical election.

But it's not. Anyone who dismisses these numbers does so at their own peril.

[brush]

23. We shall see if the bluest state in the union throws out a Dem governor...

Last edited Wed Jul 28, 2021, 12:15 AM - Edit history (1)

who just extended tenants rent moratorium.

Jun 28, 2021 SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom today signed legislation to extend the state’s eviction moratorium through September 30, 2021 and clear rent debt for low-income Californians that have suffered economic hardship due to the pandemic.

[SunSeeker]

25. California isn't the bluest state in the nation.

Vermont and Hawaii are bluer.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/blue-states


CA has a huge population of right wing nutbags. The John Birch Society started here. The right wingers here are also very politically engaged, unlike the Democratic voters. It's scary.

[Sibelius Fan]

2. There are 10-million registered Dems in CA and 5.3-million Republicans.

90% of Rs being interested in the recall = 4.7-million

58% of Ds being interested = 5.8-million.

BTW - there are 5.6-million registered Indie voters in CA, outnumbering Rs. 53% of Indie voters being interested in the recall = 2.9-million. Indie voters in CA vote for Ds 46% of the time, 37% of the time for Rs.

Add it all up and you have 7.1-million Ds and D-leaning Indies interested in the recall and 5.7-million Rs and R-leaning Indies interested in the recall.

Just another poll that is only concerning if one mistakenly assumes a 50/50 split in the electorate when it comes to political preference.

[PortTack]

4. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[former9thward]

6. That is assuming 100% turnout.

The 2003 recall election had 61% turnout "interested" does not mean votes. And you seem to be assuming most of the indies do not favor recall.

[Sibelius Fan]

7. No it doesn't. It's based on the voting preferences of actual voters

and the stated interest in the recall.

The point is that the Rs still face an incredible lift to pull off a recall.

[LenaBaby61]

10. THANK YOU!

I live here in California, and I'm not too terribly worried about Newsome.

[SunSeeker]

26. His name is spelled Newsom. No "e."

Make sure you fill in the correct box on your ballot. And please mail your ballot as soon as you get it!

[LiberalFighter]

16. Eric Ting got a degree in journalism but not in math.

[PortTack]

3. CA 64.5% dem to 35.3% gqp in the '20 election...somehow I don't think Newsom has much to worry about

[brooklynite]

12. Assumes that Democrats show up for an off-year election in September.

[MFM008]

8. Newsom is not

Gray Davis.
Another trumphumper pipe dream.

[TomCADem]

9. This Is Why Republicans Habitually Push for Recalls In California...

...sometimes right after the Democratic elected in question is eligible to be recalled. First, California has a low threshold for triggering a recall. Second, in an off-cycle election, general polling really does not matter, since there is such low turnout, so only the folks who are most disgruntled actually vote.

So, I am expect Newsome to lose this with some crazy Trumpster winning the Governorship with only 10 percent of the California vote, then people losing their minds about how the heck did that happen.

It is just another example of how Republicans are now just trying to subvert Democracy at all levels.

[The Mouth]

11. Yes, but also a worrying lesson on

getting people out to vote for *ALL* elections.

Those city council, county supervisor, and school board races are in the long run pretty damned important.

"Don't vote, don't complain"

[TomCADem]

14. The way recalls work in California, CA could easily get a right wing extremist who wins with ...

... a plurality out of a low turnout election.

I think a lot of folks will not vote, because they will reason why vote, when the Gubernatorial primaries are taking place in June 2022. Why not just wait until then?

While this sounds reasonable, they are totally unrelated elections. The recall covers who is Governor between September 2021 through December 2022 while the 2022 elections covers who is Governor in 2023.

This is not about effective Governing. Rather, like most of the Republican party, it is about causing disruption and divisiveness.

[Mr.Bill]

20. It will almost be comical watching a republican governor

flailing against a Democratic supermajority in both houses of the legislature and all statewide offices held by Democrats. They could easily strip him of any powers he thinks he might have.

Then we can play their game and accuse him of getting nothing done when he runs in the next election.

[Initech]

18. Make no mistake - this has *NOTHING* to do with the pandemic.

And everything to do with a partisan power grab. If we don't show up at the polls when the election happens, for conservatives, it will be like taking candy from a baby. I've also said this repeatedly - the people who are running the recall election are people who you wouldn't trust to run a 7-11. We cannot let the Trumpsters get a hold of California, or we can kiss 2024 goodbye.

[JohnSJ]

13. About the 3rd recall attempt against Newsom. Others failed because they could not enough signatures

in the allocated timeframe, and the only reason this succeeded to get on the ballot was because some jackass republican judge extended the time to get enough signatures by three months

There will be two questions on the recall ballot.

If more than 50% of voters support ousting Newsom, then the top vote-getter in the second question automatically becomes governor, regardless of how many votes that person gets.

Much of this recall is being supported by outside trumpers, and it will cost the state millions of dollars. After this election the normal election for Governor is next year, which makes this even more costly

One of the dangers this recall poses is that the if something happened to one of our Senators, the Governor would appoint that Senator's replacement. With the Senate already so tight, that would be a disaster.

As long as people get out and vote, the recall will go down in flames

[JohnSJ]

15. 4 needed reforms of California's recall election rules

1. Require more signatures
2. Toughen allowable reasons for a recall
3. Establish distributive partisan requirements for signatures
4. Increase filing requirements

Once the $276 million (in taxpayer funds) gubernatorial recall is mercifully over in September, the Democratically controlled Legislature needs to seriously address deficiencies in the recall process.

In the 92 years since the provision was added to the state Constitution and 2003, there had never been a recall attempt against a sitting governor that qualified for the ballot, despite dozens of attempts. Now, two of the last three Democratic governors will have been subjected to a recall within 18 years.

The main reason: California Republicans can’t win a gubernatorial election outright, so they are using the recall as a back-door alternative.

When they couldn’t defeat a very unpopular Gov. Gray Davis in the 2002 general election, Republicans came back for a re-do the next year via the recall. (The last time California Republicans defeated a sitting Democratic governor in a regular election was in 1966.) Democrat Gavin Newsom won the 2018 gubernatorial race with 62% of the vote — the largest margin of victory for a candidate of either party since 1950.

The recall provision was designed by early-20th-century Progressives as a tool to rid the state of politicians who exhibited shocking behavior, were abusing the public trust or mishandling public funds. It was not intended to be a political crowbar for a minority party to try to force its way into an office in special off-year elections.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/07/4-needed-reforms-of-californias-recall-election-rules/

[Mr.Bill]

21. Another factor to remember is far more Californians

are mailing their votes in. That will make a difference in the past off-year voter apathy.

[pbmus]

24. California...2003 💣💥😱😭

Governor Gray Davis
Filed by Edward J. Costa and 98 others
Qualified for ballot: Recall election October 7, 2003
Recall succeeded - 55.4% in favor; 44.6% opposed
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) elected successor

[Omaha Steve]

27. After a review by forum hosts....LOCKING

It is a poll. It’s analysis of his chances.

Post the latest news from reputable mainstream news websites and blogs. Important news of national interest only. No analysis or opinion pieces. No duplicates. News stories must have been published within the last 12 hours. Use the published title of the story as the title of the discussion thread.