CDC says nearly 67% of U.S. counties have substantial, high COVID-19 transmission

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Wednesday that 66.6% of U.S. counties had transmission rates of COVID-19 high enough to warrant indoor masking and should immediately resume the policy.

The transmission rate was up from 63.4% as of Tuesday. In total, 49.9% of U.S. counties have high COVID-19 community transmission rates and 16.7% have substantial rates, the CDC said. The CDC reversed its mask guidance policy for vaccinated Americans on Tuesday.

Substantial transmission means at least 50 new cases per 100,000 people in the last seven days, while high transmission is more than 100 cases per 100,000 people over the last week.

In a toughening of guidance issued earlier this month, the CDC also recommended all students, teachers and staff at schools for kindergarten through 12th grade wear masks regardless of whether they were vaccinated.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-says-nearly-67percent-of-us-counties-have-substantial-high-covid-19-transmission/ar-AAMFWzg?li=BBnb7Kz

[BumRushDaShow]

1. That's pretty significant

We're not close to that 50/10,000 or 100/100,000 criteria here in PA yet. But as the summer goes on and colleges start back up in August, look out.

[Deminpenn]

2. As we learn every 4 years during presidential elections,

land area does not equal people.

[Skittles]

3. who could have seen this coming

besides ANYONE WITH CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS

[Voltaire2]

4. We are back in the shitter again

The covid breeders will make this plague permanent.

[progree]

5. This article has a county level map of the U.S. color-coded by High, Substantial, Moderate, or Low

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/heres-a-map-of-the-covid-hot-spots-under-the-cdcs-new-mask-guidance.html

HIGH: at least 100 new cases per 100k residents over past week or 10%+ positivity rate
SUBSTANTIAL: 50-100 new cases per 100k residents over past week, 8-10% positivity rate

At High and Substantial the CDC recommends everyone wear a mask indoors.

Hover your mouse over a county to see both its new cases per 100K statistic and its positivity rate statistic

[Deminpenn]

7. 1 PA county that's in the high/substantial zone

had a whopping 4 cases. There's obviously some criteria refinement needed.

[progree]

8. What county is that? I think it is reasonable to go by weekly cases per 100,000 and test positivity

rate. Certainly more reasonable than just going by the number of cases as if population didn't matter.

[Deminpenn]

11. Cameron County, iirc

The total population is around 5,000. It's up near the Allegheny Natl Forest and located in other state woodlands and forests. It's ridiculous to cite it as "high/substantial" when it's so small, rural and isolated.

CDC criteria is ok for places with mid-to-upper 5 figures population and some degree of population density, but it misses the mark for these small, rural low-density areas. I understand that the criteria is trying to standardize the data, but it generating misleading information with respect to the areas of the US that are truly having big outbreaks.

I also think that the positivity rate is useful, but the PCR test standard is somewhat problematic because, afaik, it cannot distinguish between live virus, dead virus and virus fragments or viral "load".

[progree]

12. Yeah, I did some data gathering and math, and concluded

that they gave Cameron ( pop. 4339 [1] ) a "HIGH" rating for its 12.9% positivity rate [2]. The CDC map says the number of cases per 100k in the past week is "not available" [2]

Without going in more detail (here's where the math and other data gets used), that positivity rate appears to be based on just ONE or TWO actual cases in the past week. So yup, not exactly a Guinness World Book of Records for largest sample size, nor likely to ever be a textbook case illustrating the power of the Law of Large Numbers


[1] URL-Pennsylvania counties population - https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/states/pa

[2] URL-CDC map: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/heres-a-map-of-the-covid-hot-spots-under-the-cdcs-new-mask-guidance.html
(For anyone following along, Cameron is the bright red county approx. in the middle of the state on an East-West axis, and near the New York state border.)

[Deminpenn]

14. Yet, Cameron county is still counted as part of the 67%

of counties the CDC says have "high/substantial" transmission. But I'll bet Cameron isn't the only US county that's small and/or rural and/or lightly populated on the CDC's list. That's what makes this OP statistic misleading.

[sybylla]

13. I would disagree.

I live in a low-population area in WI and spend time in another county that's just like you're describing - up north with lots of national forest. That low population of people has fewer choices for purchasing groceries, gas, carryout/meals, and more which means they congregate into the same places at higher rates. Plus, this time of year they host tourists up the wazoo. This small population county is less likely to mask, social distance, vaccinate, and live near medical facilities where they can get tested regularly. I have no doubt that the number of reported infections is much lower than actual because no one is going to drive 30 min -an hour to a test site unless it involves a child or it's seriously symptomatic. They are also more susceptible to rumor and BS.

And guess what? That county and a neighboring one are spiking cases this week, too.

Too often I hear my neighbors and friends in both counties complain about how all the COVID is in the high population areas - that it would be no big deal if they would get their act together in those librul-run cities. The truth is, the worst offending areas in this state, extrapolated to cases/deaths per 100,000 people, are low population counties swimming in COVID who think it's just a big city thing and they don't have to vax or mask-up.

[Deminpenn]

15. My experience is that in Pennsylvania, in these northern and mountain counties,

life is mostly self-contained.

[IronLionZion]

6. Sunshine and warm weather kills it. This will all be over by summer

remember hearing that last year? hot states are getting it hard right now. This time it might be a little bit harder for conservatives to blame it on BLM protests or Asian-Americans.

[appalachiablue]

9. +1 I remember all that crazy talk

[Sherman A1]

10. And the evening before this is reported

The bright folks at the St. Louis County Council over rode the implementation of a mask mandate by the County Executive.