U.S. economy grew annual 6.5 percent between April and June, marking full recovery from the pandemic

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. economy was officially back and fully recovered from the pandemic as of June, although a recent surge in covid cases could threaten new uncertainty ahead. The economy grew 6.5 percent in the quarter ending in June, as covid vaccinations and unleashed consumer spending added momentum to the recovery. For the first time since the pandemic took hold, economic output eclipsed its pre-pandemic high, after adjusting for inflation.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, offered a backward-looking snapshot of the months when hiring picked up speed and people felt comfortable booking vacations, eating at restaurants and buying tickets to concerts or movies. Some Americans got $1,400 stimulus checks in the late spring or received extended unemployment benefits, providing a financial cushion that helped households step back into their old routines -- and spend.

Economists still hope for strong continued growth in 2021. But that optimism has been complicated by surging covid cases and the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus, particularly among unvaccinated people. On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged indoor masked wearing for people in covid hot spots and other circumstances.

The economic repercussions are unclear. The Biden administration is pledging a bold economic agenda and urging Americans to get vaccinated. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere have made clear that controlling the pandemic is key to stabilizing the recovery.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/07/29/gdp-q2-economy-covid-delta-recovery/

---

Original headline before their correction: U.S. economy grew 6.5 percent between April and June, marking full recovery from the pandemic


Watching RW heads

ETA - here is the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) tweet (and source link) -

Link to tweet

TEXT

BEA News
@BEA_News
The U.S. economy grew at a 6.5% annualized rate in Q2. https://go.usa.gov/xUSSS
8:31 AM · Jul 29, 2021

Also throwing this in as a companion piece of news - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142777018

Link to tweet

TEXT

US Labor Department
@USDOL
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 400,000 for the week ending 7/24 (-24,000).

Insured unemployment was 3,269,000 for the week ending 7/17 (+7,000).

https://dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
8:30 AM · Jul 29, 2021

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Good morning.

From Emily McCormick. She usually does the initial jobless claims. She must have been pulled off that to do this. I haven't seen those articles yet. They'll be up by the time I get back to the pages.

U.S. economy expanded at 6.5% annualized rate in Q2, missing expectations

Emily McCormick·Reporter
Thu, July 29, 2021, 8:33 AM · 3 min read

Growth in U.S. economic activity accelerated only slightly in the second quarter compared to the first, disappointing economists expecting that the lingering effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus and strong consumer and business demand would fuel further growth.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advanced estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

• Q2 GDP, seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-over-quarter: 6.5% vs. 8.4% expected and 6.4% in Q1

• Personal consumption: 11.8% vs. 10.5% expected and 11.4% in Q1

• Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 6.0% vs. 6.1% expected and 2.5% in Q1

The headline print in quarterly GDP missed the mark even as consumer spending, the biggest component of U.S. economic activity, exceeded expectations. Personal consumption rose at an 11.8% rate in the second quarter, unexpectedly accelerating from the first quarter's 11.4% growth rate and handily topping expectations for a 10.5% increase.

Heading into Thursday's report, the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales figures grew in April and June during the quarter, and have held markedly higher on a year-over-year basis since the summer of last year. That impact, though, is seen decelerating moderately going forward after government-issued stimulus checks turbo-charged consumer spending at the start of the year.

{snip}

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Good morning and thanks!

I know you are a busy bee this morning.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. I wasn't aware that today was GDP day. That showed up while I was trying to find

an article about the initial jobless claims.

No big deal. Everything got done.

Thanks.

[IronLionZion]

2. Dems are better for the economy

we've seen it with Biden, Obama, and Clinton

[bucolic_frolic]

5. I think that article is full of it

"The U.S. economy was officially back and fully recovered from the pandemic"

It may be by metrics of output, income, inflation. But there remain devastated swaths of the economy. Workers are hard to come by, people work from home in the gig economy. Blocks and blocks of storefronts in major cities are vacant, strip malls same. I saw 2 small shops beside Walmart empty yesterday. Goods are hard to find, shoes in particular. Yes there are stores, but casual dress styles are absent, all that remains is fancy dress good for nothing and weak athletics. Restaurants are still struggling, though many have closed already. Meanwhile, inflation. WW flour up 12% this month. Sugar up 4%. You can see the numbers.

Or maybe I just feel this way because Stim #2 isn't here yet.

[Worried2020]

6. Yep

'

You said it better than I coulda . . . .



W

[BumRushDaShow]

7. It's actually a pretty long article

and I'm obviously constrained to the 4 paragraphs. But they do actually mention the other issues that you describe and attribute much of the surge to "pent-up demand" in certain sectors, which I interpret as almost a "dead cat bounce".

In reality, you also have a complete restructuring of the economy and business models that we are literally in the midst of and I don't think any of them have an idea what it will settle down to look like.

So I think the gist was that use of the term "recovered" was essentially in reference to raw comparative numbers. I.e., finally getting back to what things were "pre-pandemic", but now being in what is an elongated slog towards some different "post-pandemic" economic state, where there seems to really be no end in sight to a continual series of COVID-19 outbreaks that can halt or upend further growth, and in fact, cause a setback (and the cost of goods and services is reflecting that issue).

They sortof summarize it like this -

Now that GDP has regained the ground lost in that recession, the economy will shift from recovery mode to expansion mode. But economists say it may take years to regain its full potential and reach the levels it might have seen had the novel coronavirus not interrupted the longest U.S. economic expansion on record.

(and the above was actually referencing the expansion that goes back to the Obama administration through to TFG's coronavirus nightmare that triggered a recession).

[bucolic_frolic]

8. Thanks, I should read the entire article, but my attention span is short

And if it's by the numbers, I think part of this recovery is attributable to inflation juicing sales. House and auto prices for example.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. You don't have to worry about

attention span 'cause I'm right there with ya!!!

(my brain is trying to process to many things at the moment in addition to this )

[Initech]

9. See? That's what happens when a competent president is in charge!

[totodeinhere]

13. This goes back to President Obama's competent managing of the economy.

Then Trump came in and rode Obama's coattails for all its worth but Trump deserves no credit.

[durablend]

10. RW media already spinning it

"Missed expectations", "worst ever", "well below expectations"

[BumRushDaShow]

15. "RW media already spinning it"

That's because they want to distract from this fact that happened under TFG -

[totodeinhere]

12. If we can enter the upcoming midterms with a growing economy like this then I think we

will have a good chance to buck the conventional wisdom and keep control of the House and Senate. And that is extremely crucial. And by then hopefully inflation will have moderated.

[aocommunalpunch]

14. Eviction moratorium ending will likely dampen this. n/t

[progree]

16. Shame on the Washington Post - they misstate the growth in the headline and 2nd sentence

U.S. economy grew 6.5 percent between April and June,

False. It did not.

.... The economy grew 6.5 percent in the quarter ending in June,

False. It did not.

It grew at a 6.5% ANNUALIZED RATE, as the BEA tweet in the OP states (the Bureau of Economic Analysis is the source of this statistic).

For the first time since the pandemic took hold, economic output eclipsed its pre-pandemic high, after adjusting for inflation.

FRED shows a graph, and agrees.

Graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
Numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/GDPC1.txt

So essentially we've had a year and a half of no growth. And probably 90+% of that went to the top 1%.

Edited to add: BEA Report and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

An NBC News story (unpaywalled), thanks Peppertree (Economy Forum)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111691014

[BumRushDaShow]

18. They eventually changed their headline after I did the OP

U.S. economy grew annual 6.5 percent between April and June, marking full recovery from the pandemic

I suppose I can update it... but sometimes these outlets change their headlines way too often.

The NYT headline was this -

The U.S. economy grew 1.6 percent in the second quarter, returning to prepandemic size

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/business/2Q-GDP-Report.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

ETA - I decided to go on and replace the OP title with WaPo's updated headline that clarifies the rate as "annual".

[peppertree]

17. The right-wing Twitter-sphere must be abuzz with "the gummint lies about GDP!"

"Unlike Trump who never lied about anything!"

Riiight.

[Deep State Witch]

19. #BidenEconomy

Some stupid wingnut in Virginia was asking "how much did you pay for gas?" with the hashtag "BidenEconomy". It did not go well. I informed her that the reason that gas prices are higher is because people are driving to work and on vacations - hence the #BidenEconomy is doing well.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. You could have also told her that last year

Saudi and Russia were engaged in an oil price war to kill the U.S. Shale Oil industry, and were pumping out so much oil that they essentially crashed the futures prices, forcing them to fall into the negative, where they got as low as ~-$38/bbl (meaning owners would actually pay a "buyer" to take it off their hands and store it).

I was actually posting screenshots in DU threads that were discussing it, including this one - https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100213319463



#TFGEconomy

[Deep State Witch]

21. True That

But, I was tired and didn't want to explain the oil industry to a dumbass. Thanks!

[BumRushDaShow]

22. LOL