Democratic Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind to retire, vacating competitive swing seat

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wisc.) will announce Tuesday that he will not seek reelection to represent Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District after serving since 1997, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Why it matters: Kind's retirement creates a wide-open race in one of the most competitive districts in Wisconsin and damages Democrats' chances at holding their U.S. House majority.

The big picture: His heavily rural district voted for former President Trump in the last two presidential elections, and Kind, a moderate, in 2020 only narrowly beat Republican Derrick Van Orden, who is running again.

Democrats currently only hold an eight-seat majority in the House.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/wisconsin-democrat-ron-kind-retire-swing-6d98c5a5-8c82-4de1-95a6-b7d30157ea36.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-ronkind

[ColinC]

1. I imagine (and I hope I'm right), that having a democratic governor will help the Dems gain a few

Given how incredibly unfair the maps were drawn in Wisconsin 10 years ago.

[empedocles]

2. Been offline for the day. Go online and soon see notice the justice Dems are getting more active

[riversedge]

3. Rep. Ron Kind announces retirement in boon to GOP's House hopes

Link to tweet

?s=20






Rep. Ron Kind announces retirement in boon to GOP's House hopes

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/10/kind-reelection-503343



Kind, who has spent nearly 25 years in the House, faced a closer-than-expected race in his sprawling rural Wisconsin seat last fall.
Rep. Ron Kind appears at a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Rep. Ron Kind appears at a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. | AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

By ALLY MUTNICK, HEATHER CAYGLE and SARAH FERRIS

08/10/2021 03:01 PM EDT

Updated: 08/10/2021 05:45 PM EDT

Rep. Ron Kind, a senior Democrat in one of the most competitive swing seats, will not seek reelection — a gutting blow to House Democrats in their uphill battle to hang onto their majority next November.

The Wisconsin congressman announced his decision Tuesday afternoon, telling reporters, "I've run out of gas" after 13 terms in office.

"I had to face a serious job review every two years for 26 years," Kind said, standing beside by his wife and children.

Kind, who has spent nearly 25 years in the House, faced a closer-than-expected race in his sprawling rural Wisconsin seat last fall. He beat his GOP challenger Derrick Van Orden by less than 3 percentage points in 2020, after winning by nearly 20 points the previous cycle.

Democrats close to Kind said he acknowledged his reelection would be tougher this year, with Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, seeking a rematch. The GOP candidate raised a whopping $750,000 last quarter, outpacing the incumbent. Still, Democratic lawmakers and strategists had expected Kind — who serves on the coveted Ways and Means panel — to run again.

The first word of Kind's retirement shocked Democrats, his decision representing a disappointing turn for many who believed they had largely dodged a pre-midterm exodus.

Kind's now-open seat joins a daunting list of other races Democrats will have to worry about as they head into the 2022 cycle on defense against an emboldened GOP, a potentially perilous redistricting and years of history pointing to the party in power usually losing in the midterms.

Kind is the latest swing-district Democrat not to seek reelection, including Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), who announced his Senate bid last week.
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[LakeArenal]

4. Bummer.

[rockfordfile]

5. Democrats better wakeup.

[HUAJIAO]

11. I do not have confidence in that.

[milestogo]

6. There are plenty of moderate dems who could run for that seat.

Somebody will step up.

[StClone]

7. It is very easy to scare Wisconsinites into voting poorly

And difficult to educate and encourage the voters in WI to do the right thing. There is some positive news as Ron Johnson may be failing (but I will not be surprised to see him win in '22). And, our heroic yet bland, Governor Evers vetoed six anti-voting measures sponsored by the crazy extremists in the power of the state.

Voters in this WI see voting as a sports metaphor, my team vs yours, and will not change loyalties no matter what. Independents are uneducated herds of cats, not some informed activists, and often sit out or vote R. Once a proud leader in Progressive values we are a shit hole failed state because of gerrymandering. But we are working to turn it around.

[sybylla]

8. This district was gerrymandered solidly for Dems in 2012.

Kind won most of his elections - until 2020 - with +/- 60% of the vote. Keeping this district Dem will happen if we have a solid candidate. I know a lot of progressives didn't like Kind. I didn't always agree with every vote he took. But he cared for the environment and veterans and he did the right thing on Obamacare - even holding town hall meetings around his district and facing down the tea party deplorables. Then I got gerrymandered to Duffy/Tiffany territory. I'd take Kind in a hot minute over them.

[StClone]

9. The Republicans see District 3 as an unavoidable blivet

There are just too many Dems to divide and pack into evenly Gerrymandered districts for R dominance even with the best supercomputer-generated lines. So Kind, who has eyed running for several higher offices (Senator, Gov.), now appears tired of the fight against the Wisconsin Koch/Bradley/Mercer funded shitshow. District 3 will be maintained with a good candidate as you note.

He is what I'd call a conservative, out of necessity, to survive even in a Dem state (yes if not Gerrymandered) and a Dem district. We are so off-kilter from the state I was so enamored with when I move here in 1986.

[SouthBayDem]

10. WI-3 was historically Republican for much of the past 100+ years

The district continuously elected Republican representatives from 1908 to 1972!

But in more recent times, the district became a bellwether reflecting national political trends. In 1974, when Watergate led to a national backlash against the party of Nixon, Democrat Alvin Baldus defeated Republican incumbent Vernon Thompson. But in the "Reagan Revolution" year of 1980, Baldus lost his seat to Republican challenger Steve Gunderson (who would become the first openly gay Republican member of the House after being outed in 1994). With Gunderson retiring, Kind won the open seat in 1996, a national strength year for Democrats due to Clinton's re-election.

So in my view, how this district will go in 2022 depends on statewide and national trends. Will there still be voter confidence in President Biden and Governor Evers? (Assuming he runs for re-election) Will Ron Johnson still be have the toxic stench of his vaccine misinformation? In a February poll by Public Policy Polling of WI voters, Johnson had a 35% approval rating, while Biden had 47%. 51% of voters favored Evers (vs. 38% for state Republican legislators) for handling COVID.

Frankly I'm surprised that such a middle of nowhere district (other than La Crosse and Minneapolis suburb River Falls) has had a Democrat in office for the past 20+ years. Are there a lot of union workers over there or what?

[StClone]

12. District 3 boundaries changed so exact voting history may not be equivalent

Check out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin%27s_congressional_districts#Historical_and_present_district_boundaries

In the last Gerrymandered reiteration maneuver they made 3 into the shape of a "person holding a brick." The addition of the "brick" holds a more Democratic area (Stevens Point and others) which is an area, not safety winger heavens.

Van Orden is not a very good candidate, but we have no competitive high profile Dem to throw in there. He may have an unassailable advantage. Van Orden really sucks.

[sybylla]

13. The district also looked far different historically than it does now.

Since 2012, the GQP shoved as many Dem-leaning cities/counties into the district as they could. Basically, the Dems have the Madison area, the Milwaukee area, and the 3rd District. I don't see how you can compare today's 3rd with the 3rd of 1942, 1972, or even 1992.

Eau Claire has leaned or been strong D for decades. There used to be a strong union presence there, but not so much now. The district now also includes Stevens Point/Plover area, which has historically been very strong D.

There used to be a few rural counties that were reliably Dem, but now most of the rural areas are as ugly and stubborn as Death Desantis' Florida. So many signs for TFG still up along with anti-abortion, pro gun, god is real billboards.