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Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:10 PM

Supreme Court to Issue Opinions Monday, Possibly Ruling on Texas Abortion Case

Source: Bloomberg News

The U.S. Supreme Court scheduled Monday as the first opinion day of its term, opening the possibility of an imminent decision on challenges to Texas’ ban on abortion after six weeks.

The court said the justices won’t take the bench and instead will release any opinions online starting at 10 a.m. Washington time, as has been their practice since the Covid-19 pandemic began last year. The court doesn’t say which opinions will be issued on particular days.

The high court is considering separate bids by abortion providers and the Justice Department to block the Texas law, the strictest in effect in the nation. The Supreme Court let the measure take effect Sept. 1 on a 5-4 vote, pointing to an unusual mechanism that puts enforcement entirely in the hands of private parties.

The provision has complicated efforts to block the law since judges usually take that step by ordering the responsible government officials not to enforce a challenged measure.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/supreme-court-sets-monday-as-opinion-day-abortion-case-possible



I'm not one to blindly say we'll win (see my VA pre-Election Day posts), but this one I'm confident on. The Texas abortion law will be struck down, possibly even 6-3.

28 replies, 2396 views

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
Reply Supreme Court to Issue Opinions Monday, Possibly Ruling on Texas Abortion Case (Original post)
Polybius Nov 19 OP
CaliforniaPeggy Nov 19 #1
Polybius Nov 19 #2
JohnSJ Nov 19 #6
Polybius Nov 19 #10
JohnSJ Nov 19 #11
Polybius Nov 19 #12
JohnSJ Nov 19 #13
Polybius Nov 19 #15
homegirl Nov 20 #25
NYC Liberal Nov 19 #9
maxrandb Nov 19 #14
iluvtennis Nov 19 #17
regnaD kciN Nov 19 #3
Polybius Nov 19 #4
bucolic_frolic Nov 19 #5
JohnSJ Nov 19 #7
oldsoftie Nov 19 #19
JohnSJ Nov 19 #20
Freddie Nov 19 #8
DownriverDem Nov 19 #16
oldsoftie Nov 19 #18
Princess Turandot Nov 19 #21
DallasNE Nov 20 #22
J_William_Ryan Nov 20 #27
DallasNE Nov 20 #23
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Nov 20 #24
rsdsharp Nov 20 #26
BigmanPigman Nov 20 #28

Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:18 PM

1. Sure hope you're right! A lot is riding on this. n/t

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:21 PM

2. I'm pretty sure that I will be

I'm a total realist here. I often get blasted for making perditions that a lot don't like, but I'm usually spot on. My only question is whether it will be 6-3 or 5-4. I'm leaning 6-3.

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Response to Polybius (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:36 PM

6. Then why allow the law to take effect before the ruling? That is why I am not optimistic at all. i

think the odds favor the same 5-4 vote that allowed the Texas Law to take effect, will also favor the end of Roe V Wade

I think there is a good chance that the republic ended with the 2016 election

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:48 PM

10. Kavanaugh and ACB probably didn't want to go too hard on anti-abortionists

They compromised, but one or both will side with the liberals (and Roberts). The suing part is what they they'll be against. We'll see though. I hope I'm right.

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Response to Polybius (Reply #10)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:52 PM

11. I hope you are right also, but I don't see why they would feel the need to compromise now.

Trump did a tremendous amount of damage, and the conservative majority will be in power for the foreseeable future, unless something truly unexpected happens.

We had a real chance to change that dynamic in 2016, and it didn’t happen

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:53 PM

12. Kavanaugh asked some tough questions

He compared it to lawsuits on guns. I see no way that he goes along with this.

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Response to Polybius (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:55 PM

13. Maybe we will know on Monday

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 05:00 PM

15. I hope so

The soon it's stuck down, the better.

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 12:40 PM

25. Alas Babylon

How close are we to civil war?

Those we do not inform themselves, who do not register and who do not vote are to blame.

Interesting fact: Sweden a Social Democratic country for decades has a 94% participation rate in elections.
Campaigns about six weeks, very low key and certainly not the money making industry it is here in the USA.


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Response to Polybius (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:47 PM

9. I agree with you.

I think the main reason will be that if they allow this attempt at a “loophole” to stand, any state could use it to infringe on any right. What happens if a state passes the same law but for guns instead of abortions?

This will be the reason it’s struck down; not because the right wing justices are ok with abortion.

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Response to NYC Liberal (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:56 PM

14. LOL - they'll simply say that bounties for abortion is OK, but bounties for guns is NOT

And there's not a damn thing we can do about it.

We had a chance, BUTTER EMAILS!

The Federalist Society and wingnut Retrumplicans haven't spent 50 years corrupting our courts for nothing.

Anyone who is expecting reason and fairness to win out haven't been paying attention.

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 05:22 PM

17. +1. n/t

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:21 PM

3. I tend to think you're right on this decision...

…but that it will be no predictor of how they will vote later this term on the Mississippi case that calls on them to overturn Roe altogether.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:24 PM

4. Oh, the Mississippi case bars most abortions after 15 weeks

While it doesn't call for Roe to be completely overturned, I feat that will be allowed to stand by the Supreme Court. 15 weeks will be the new minimum allowed for states to ban them.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:26 PM

5. If that's what they're ruling on, they see a need to do something quickly

or they could just say 'stand your ground' in all things. That seems to be the trajectory the country rides on.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:39 PM

7. Since the SC let the Texas Law take effect before the ruling, I don't think that bodes well

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 06:10 PM

19. If you look at WHY they let it go, you'll get it. It should've been 9-0

There wasnt anyone to be an actual plaintiff in the common sense.
But now that there is, I agree with the OP; it'll get tossed. And maybe by more than 5-4

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #19)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 06:31 PM

20. I hope both your assessments are right

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 04:47 PM

8. They'd take away our rights to control our bodies in a heartbeat

I do think they don’t like the vigilante justice aspect.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 05:21 PM

16. I've seen

that the Mississippi case that will end Roe v Wade.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 06:08 PM

18. I agree with you; on the 6-3 too.

And i know a lot of folks that will be pissed off at the "traitors"

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Fri Nov 19, 2021, 08:34 PM

21. Last term, Kavanaugh was in agreement with Roberts as to the judgment on the cases 94% of the time..

That was highest rate of agreement among any 2 justices. (By comparison, the sons of Scalia voted together 82% of the time.) Roberts voted for the injunction; it's not likely that he will backtrack on that.

For what it's worth.

Per SCOTUSblog, Agreement in judgment is defined as two justices voting for the same outcome – affirm or reverse – even if they do not join any part of the same opinion (it encompasses partial and full agreement). Justice agreement data is from here: https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Agreement-7.2.21.pdf

Also, the Court nearly always announces when opinions will be issued at least a day in advance. So, that announcement doesn't signify anything in particular re: the Texas case.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 12:02 AM

22. They Will Not Rule On The Texas Law Until After They Rule On The Mississippi Law

They will rule in favor of the Mississippi law and then rule that the "unusual mechanism" in the Texas law is unconstittuional but leave in place the 6 week ban. That will set off a rush of other states, including Mississippi, to put in place a 6 week ban. Roe v Wade will technically still be the law but with a huge chunk carved out of it.

All speculation, of course, but you heard it here first.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #22)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 04:13 PM

27. The only issue before the Court

with regard to the Texas law is its "unusual mechanism,” not the six-week ban.

The Court will invalidate the unusual mechanism.

The Court will then rule to uphold the Mississippi ban, rendering the Texas ban moot.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)


Response to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 11:31 AM

24. In a criminal trial, the state must prove its case "beyond a reasonable doubt."

In Texas, the jury for a criminal trial consists of 12 members who must reach a unanimous verdict. The jury in a civil case consists of six members, and agreement of just five-sixths of the jurors is sufficient to reach a valid verdict.

The Texas scheme removes abortion cases out of the criminal court system and into the civil one, where the burden of proof is lower.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 02:02 PM

26. I learned long ago not to try to out guess a court, let alone a jury,

but since predictions are being made, I think it will be 5-4 to uphold. They are doing it on a Monday (if it does come down), when they aren’t physically present on the bench, so the don’t have to read it aloud. I think it will be per curium so they don’t have to put their name on it, but with 4 dissenting votes.

I hope I’m wrong, but they could have stopped implementation of the law weeks ago if that is what they wanted to do.

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Response to Polybius (Original post)

Sat Nov 20, 2021, 11:42 PM

28. 60% of Americans support abortion rights

but the SCOTUS doesn't represent the US. And they say they aren't partisan...BS!

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