Supreme Court to Issue Opinions Monday, Possibly Ruling on Texas Abortion Case

[Polybius]

Source: Bloomberg News

The U.S. Supreme Court scheduled Monday as the first opinion day of its term, opening the possibility of an imminent decision on challenges to Texas’ ban on abortion after six weeks.

The court said the justices won’t take the bench and instead will release any opinions online starting at 10 a.m. Washington time, as has been their practice since the Covid-19 pandemic began last year. The court doesn’t say which opinions will be issued on particular days.

The high court is considering separate bids by abortion providers and the Justice Department to block the Texas law, the strictest in effect in the nation. The Supreme Court let the measure take effect Sept. 1 on a 5-4 vote, pointing to an unusual mechanism that puts enforcement entirely in the hands of private parties.

The provision has complicated efforts to block the law since judges usually take that step by ordering the responsible government officials not to enforce a challenged measure.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-19/supreme-court-sets-monday-as-opinion-day-abortion-case-possible

---

I'm not one to blindly say we'll win (see my VA pre-Election Day posts), but this one I'm confident on. The Texas abortion law will be struck down, possibly even 6-3.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Sure hope you're right! A lot is riding on this. n/t

[Polybius]

2. I'm pretty sure that I will be

I'm a total realist here. I often get blasted for making perditions that a lot don't like, but I'm usually spot on. My only question is whether it will be 6-3 or 5-4. I'm leaning 6-3.

[JohnSJ]

6. Then why allow the law to take effect before the ruling? That is why I am not optimistic at all. i

think the odds favor the same 5-4 vote that allowed the Texas Law to take effect, will also favor the end of Roe V Wade

I think there is a good chance that the republic ended with the 2016 election

[Polybius]

10. Kavanaugh and ACB probably didn't want to go too hard on anti-abortionists

They compromised, but one or both will side with the liberals (and Roberts). The suing part is what they they'll be against. We'll see though. I hope I'm right.

[JohnSJ]

11. I hope you are right also, but I don't see why they would feel the need to compromise now.

Trump did a tremendous amount of damage, and the conservative majority will be in power for the foreseeable future, unless something truly unexpected happens.

We had a real chance to change that dynamic in 2016, and it didn’t happen

[Polybius]

12. Kavanaugh asked some tough questions

He compared it to lawsuits on guns. I see no way that he goes along with this.

[JohnSJ]

13. Maybe we will know on Monday

[Polybius]

15. I hope so

The soon it's stuck down, the better.

[homegirl]

25. Alas Babylon

How close are we to civil war?

Those we do not inform themselves, who do not register and who do not vote are to blame.

Interesting fact: Sweden a Social Democratic country for decades has a 94% participation rate in elections.
Campaigns about six weeks, very low key and certainly not the money making industry it is here in the USA.

[NYC Liberal]

9. I agree with you.

I think the main reason will be that if they allow this attempt at a “loophole” to stand, any state could use it to infringe on any right. What happens if a state passes the same law but for guns instead of abortions?

This will be the reason it’s struck down; not because the right wing justices are ok with abortion.

[maxrandb]

14. LOL - they'll simply say that bounties for abortion is OK, but bounties for guns is NOT

And there's not a damn thing we can do about it.

We had a chance, BUTTER EMAILS!

The Federalist Society and wingnut Retrumplicans haven't spent 50 years corrupting our courts for nothing.

Anyone who is expecting reason and fairness to win out haven't been paying attention.

[iluvtennis]

17. +1. n/t

[regnaD kciN]

3. I tend to think you're right on this decision...

…but that it will be no predictor of how they will vote later this term on the Mississippi case that calls on them to overturn Roe altogether.

[Polybius]

4. Oh, the Mississippi case bars most abortions after 15 weeks

While it doesn't call for Roe to be completely overturned, I feat that will be allowed to stand by the Supreme Court. 15 weeks will be the new minimum allowed for states to ban them.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. If that's what they're ruling on, they see a need to do something quickly

or they could just say 'stand your ground' in all things. That seems to be the trajectory the country rides on.

[JohnSJ]

7. Since the SC let the Texas Law take effect before the ruling, I don't think that bodes well

[oldsoftie]

19. If you look at WHY they let it go, you'll get it. It should've been 9-0

There wasnt anyone to be an actual plaintiff in the common sense.
But now that there is, I agree with the OP; it'll get tossed. And maybe by more than 5-4

[JohnSJ]

20. I hope both your assessments are right

[Freddie]

8. They'd take away our rights to control our bodies in a heartbeat

I do think they don’t like the vigilante justice aspect.

[DownriverDem]

16. I've seen

that the Mississippi case that will end Roe v Wade.

[oldsoftie]

18. I agree with you; on the 6-3 too.

And i know a lot of folks that will be pissed off at the "traitors"

[Princess Turandot]

21. Last term, Kavanaugh was in agreement with Roberts as to the judgment on the cases 94% of the time..

That was highest rate of agreement among any 2 justices. (By comparison, the sons of Scalia voted together 82% of the time.) Roberts voted for the injunction; it's not likely that he will backtrack on that.

For what it's worth.

Per SCOTUSblog, Agreement in judgment is defined as two justices voting for the same outcome – affirm or reverse – even if they do not join any part of the same opinion (it encompasses partial and full agreement). Justice agreement data is from here: https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Agreement-7.2.21.pdf

Also, the Court nearly always announces when opinions will be issued at least a day in advance. So, that announcement doesn't signify anything in particular re: the Texas case.

[DallasNE]

22. They Will Not Rule On The Texas Law Until After They Rule On The Mississippi Law

They will rule in favor of the Mississippi law and then rule that the "unusual mechanism" in the Texas law is unconstittuional but leave in place the 6 week ban. That will set off a rush of other states, including Mississippi, to put in place a 6 week ban. Roe v Wade will technically still be the law but with a huge chunk carved out of it.

All speculation, of course, but you heard it here first.

[J_William_Ryan]

27. The only issue before the Court

with regard to the Texas law is its "unusual mechanism,” not the six-week ban.

The Court will invalidate the unusual mechanism.

The Court will then rule to uphold the Mississippi ban, rendering the Texas ban moot.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

24. In a criminal trial, the state must prove its case "beyond a reasonable doubt."

In Texas, the jury for a criminal trial consists of 12 members who must reach a unanimous verdict. The jury in a civil case consists of six members, and agreement of just five-sixths of the jurors is sufficient to reach a valid verdict.

The Texas scheme removes abortion cases out of the criminal court system and into the civil one, where the burden of proof is lower.

[rsdsharp]

26. I learned long ago not to try to out guess a court, let alone a jury,

but since predictions are being made, I think it will be 5-4 to uphold. They are doing it on a Monday (if it does come down), when they aren’t physically present on the bench, so the don’t have to read it aloud. I think it will be per curium so they don’t have to put their name on it, but with 4 dissenting votes.

I hope I’m wrong, but they could have stopped implementation of the law weeks ago if that is what they wanted to do.

[BigmanPigman]

28. 60% of Americans support abortion rights

but the SCOTUS doesn't represent the US. And they say they aren't partisan...BS!