Biden official warns: COVID explosion imminent

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

New data from South Africa and Europe hint that Omicron cases are poised to explode in the U.S., where the vast majority of the population isn't well protected against infection.

Driving the news: A new analysis by South Africa's largest private insurer paints a picture of Omicron's clinical risk: Two doses of Pfizer's vaccine appear to be significantly less effective against severe disease with Omicron than previous variants.

But the variant is less likely to lead to hospitalization in adults than the original version.

What they're saying: "Everything points to a large wave. A large wave is coming," a senior Biden administration official told Axios.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/omicron-coronavirus-cases-europe-us-c85be94d-8edf-4d61-9f05-de924bff6760.html

[NJCher]

1. yesterday when I was shopping

Last edited Tue Dec 14, 2021, 01:20 PM - Edit history (1)

I observed how lax mask wearing was. While everyone had a mask, few were wearing it correctly. It seems clear to me that "covid fatigue" has set in.

Furthermore, even some who were wearing a mask correctly were not wearing enough protection, i. e., a single blue mask. That mask should be doubled, at the very least.

When I hear those figures of people who come down with covid, I know who it is.

[Traildogbob]

3. Have ya

Seen a college or pro football game or basketball game? Fans screaming and spewing, nut to butt ass we use to say in the navy when forced into an area like canned sardines. January’s have become deadly the last few years, Covid 19, insurrection and this year may blow past them both in horrific events. Saying happy new year with hope for better has gone down in flames before February arrives.

[NJCher]

7. yeah, I have seen that on tv

that is so far beyond the stretches of my imagination that I can scarcely comprehend it.

[madville]

32. Yeah, if it's not a N95 or better mask it's not doing much

The simple cloth and ill-fitting blue surgical masks don’t stop much as far as viral transmission goes so they’re pretty much just for looks anyway.

[jmbar2]

2. First confirmed cases just announced in Oregon

Mostly younger people who travelled - one to Canada, and one to Mexico.

[PortTack]

4. So anyone but me think the gqp anti vaxxer anti mask crowd will finally mask up and get jabbed??

NOT..more fake news...more dead ppl..at least it’s more of them then us!

[maxsolomon]

30. Is it?

https://covidtracking.com/race

[Delphinus]

31. Thank you

for that link!

[PortTack]

36. Yes it absolutely is!

Link to tweet

?s=21

[maxsolomon]

37. Note that that is Death RATE per 100K by county by Pres Vote.

If there's 1500 people in the county, and 1% die, that's 15 people. If there's 1,500,000, and 0.25% die, that's 3750. Blood-red GQP counties tend to be sparsely populated, as I'm sure you're aware.

Regardless, the link shows that African Americans & Asian Americans are dying at higher rates than Caucasoid Americans. Disproportionate impact on minority communities, possibly due to risk factors.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

5. Does Omicron even cause severe disease in most people?

The wave is coming, but I was hoping it wouldn't be as deadly.

[Ms. Toad]

10. Too soon to tell -

But there has been at least one death and in South Africa it is hiting 0-5 year olds hard (i.e. hospitalization)

[sybylla]

12. I follow Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist, on Twitter. You should check him out.

This thread from a few hours ago talks about the record hospitalizations in England today for children.

Link to tweet

And this thread talks about the fact that Omicron being a fast spreader is more problematic even if it proves out to be "milder" as some are claiming. Our hospital systems will be overwhelmed in no time. People won't be getting care they need.

Link to tweet

He also has some threads about the vaccine efficacy being reduced somewhat as well as with monoclonal antibody treatments against Omicron. But I haven't had time to investigate all his charts and sources. If it's true, Omicron will kick our butts. We'll be luck if we don't see our total deaths number hit 1M before the Ides of March.

[RobinA]

6. COVID

has been out there for two years now. Half that time, nobody was vaccinated. It goes up, it comes down. Vaccination doesn't seem to have made much difference in the number of cases. A year ago there was hysteria. Now there is hysteria. More and more people will become immune to the hysteria. All the fearmongering in the press is not helpful and may even be counterproductive.

[Ms. Toad]

11. The reason for the apparent non-change is, ironically, vaccination.

Delta is considerably more contagious than the variants around when the vaccines were developed. But for vaccination, we would be in the middle of a massive surge right now.

People need to grow up and stop treating accurate information as hysteria.

[sybylla]

14. Agreed.

I also think that we are well past the point of persuasion. People who aren't vaxed by now won't. They don't care. Those of us who do care will pay attention, ignore the cries of hysteria, mask up, avoid crowds and shop online or off hours.

Then there are those in the middle like my parents. They are vaxed because they trust their doctors, but they still watch Fox and think everything the government says and does is BS and that the pandemic will never end so why bother with masks or anything else. They think I'm a hysterical ninny for doing all I can to protect my 11 mo old unvaxed grandson.

People definitely need to grow up and stop treating accurate information as hysteria. The professionals have been saying from the beginning that COVID19 was likely to evolve into something worse if we didn't take measures to stop it. We didn't. And here we are. 800K dead with record hospitalizations and death counts 22 months into this pandemic. Our hospitals are full and medical staff are breaking down. I saw a report today that 96% of ICU beds in my state are occupied.

But sure, let's worry about hysteria.

[Ms. Toad]

16. 94% of the ICU beds in my county are occupied.

A friend of mine was held in the ER over the weekend because there were no ICU beds available.

[RobinA]

25. Worry About Hysteria

is not some side issue. Perceived hysteria has a huge effect on how people react to and handle information. In public health you depend on people trusting your information. When the population hears comments about how omicron could sweep the country in a matter of days, people don't hear the "could." Since omicron was discovered (for example) there has been a hail of "could" statements predicting all kinds of dire gloom and doom. No one had any information on omicron, it was all could this and could that based on speculation.

It feeds the people who think everything about COVID is hysteria and it tires the people who are willing to listen. South Africa discovered the variant and seems to have promptly informed the world. Then they find themselves in an onslaught of what omicron "could" do and cut off from that very world by travel restrictions. Will they (or anybody) be quite so quick to announce a new variant the next time? I'm thinking not. Was it at all reasonable to think that the microbes hadn't already made it to most of the rest of the world? Nope. Hysteria making the situation worse.

[sybylla]

33. So facts are hysteria?

Hysteria is a hugely problematic word chock full of misogynistic fluff, so I am admittedly riled a bit over this usage of it.

Perceived hysteria surely does what you say. On the other hand, telling a person they can't have a steak because a baby can't chew is censorship. (h/t Mark Twain) People can't handle the news shouldn't be watching. They should instead be consulting with medical professionals they trust.

I agree that Omicron was likely here before SA found it because in this country we test a very small percentage of positives for strains. I said early on that stopping travel at that point was stupid. Quarantine of travelers and testing were the best options, but no one in this country has the stomach for it.

I have been following doctors and epidemiologists from other countries on social media since January 2020, trying to find facts and stay on top of the truths about as COVID and our knowledge of it evolves. I did this so I could keep my 94 yo grandmother and my 9 yo grandson safe as well as my family informed since before it arrived here (in theory). I will continue to do so until it ever stops being a threat.

There are studies confirming the fast spread. Several. Plus actuarial data from countries who do a lot more dna analysis of strains than we do. It's a blessing that we have so much research so quickly. I've shared some twitter links on this thread. You should check them out. The hint that it was fast spreading was that it popped up almost simultaneously in so many countries. The people who were saying this weren't new to the game. They knew what Beta and Delta and all the other variants had done and saw early on that Omicron was different. Now there's proof.

I learned 18 months ago that those who don't understand science and how it works are doomed to believe all science produces is hysteria. I've also learned in the last 18 months that there isn't much you or I can do to change those opinions - I've got senior parents who buy all the Faux lies and there isn't a thing I can do or say to persuade them otherwise. Same with other extended family members.

I think it's far more important that we are honest with people about what is known and that anecdotal evidence is just that: anecdotal. And never stop pushing people to speak with their own trusted medical professionals, not Trump or Joe Rogan or Sean Hannity.

[karynnj]

15. Vaccination makes a huge difference in hospitalization and deaths given the number of cases

The NYT has charts that show the recent cases and hospitalization numbers per 100,000 by state. If you look at cases, Vermont and other northeastern states are nearly the worst,but if you look at hospitalizations though, Vermont is among the best. Vermont has one of the highest rates of people being vaccinated.

Now consider Vermont has an unusually high percent of older people. If the vaccine were not extremely helpful, Vermont would be among the worst in hospitalization.

[cadoman]

20. some fascinating info there, never realized Vermont/Maine/NH & Puerto Rico?? had so many!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age

I agree that it's important to follow through the case counts to the hospitalizations. I actually hate how often the case counts are used because the testing methodology is so helter skelter and doesn't really tell us what matters: how many are actually sick enough to need medical care?

[dalton99a]

8. Christmas and New Year's coming up

[Deminpenn]

9. It seems the virus is taking a natural course,

becoming more infectious, but less deadly.

The fact is, the majority of cases and hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated, another example of natural selection running its course.

[LisaL]

13. Omicron is infecting the vaccinated quite easily.

NT

[Deminpenn]

22. Except it's not making them especially sick

That is how viruses evolve, easier to transmit, but less deadly. Reportedly this mutation is closer to the coronaviruses that cause the common cold than to the original virus.

[LisaL]

23. It's not closer to the cold.

People still end up in the hospital. By early estimation omicron is 30% less lethal than delta. Since it's much more infectious it's not good news.

[Deminpenn]

24. People end up in the hospital from colds and flu every

winter. Some of them even die from those illnesses.

[Initech]

26. We're all going to get it, it is an inevitability at this point.

The question is do you want to get a mild cough and a sore throat or do you want to end up in the ICU on a ventilator with the possibility of dying? I know which fate I would rather choose. And I will keep taking the necessary precautions until that happens.

[Polybius]

17. I tested positive today

Fully vaccinated with Moderna. No booster yet though.

[hamsterjill]

18. Wishing you all the best.

Please take care of yourself.

[Polybius]

19. Thank you

I wear my mask everywhere, but I made the mistake of going to restaurants over the past week. Can't eat without a mask, and the servers were all maskless except for one.

[Dorian Gray]

21. Hope

it's just a mild case. I have a few friends here (in nyc) who also tested positive post vaccine pre booster. They did quite well, though one was in bed for three days.

I don't personally know anybody who had a booster who tested positive yet, but I'm sure we'll hear more about that soon.

Hope you have someone who can help out with food/etc. if you need it.

[Elessar Zappa]

27. Same here.

And I’ve had the booster. So far, it’s a mild case but I’m still nervous.

[StevieM]

29. I am glad to hear it is a mild case.

Being vaccinated and boosted probably played a big role in that.

I wonder if you have the Omicron variant.

[StevieM]

28. I hope you recover soon.

Getting the booster back in early November definitely made me feel more safe.

[ananda]

34. The "vast majority"?

I thought the majority were vaxxed.

[LisaL]

35. Omicron breaks through 2 doses of vaccines very easily.

Vast majority is either un-vaxxed or had two doses.