Real-world data from U.K. suggests omicron is less likely than delta to send people to the hospital

[former9thward]

Source: Washington Post

LONDON — Researchers looking at real-world coronavirus cases in Britain reported Wednesday that the omicron variant of the coronavirus appears to be less severe than the once dominant delta strain.

Early evidence from Scotland and England suggests that omicron is sending fewer people to the hospital.

That surveillance tracks well with the latest observations from South Africa, where public health officials have reported that omicron is tending to result in milder illness. Scientists had not been sure whether that finding would hold elsewhere.

“This is a qualified good news story,” said Jim McMenamin, National Covid-19 Incident Director at Public Health Scotland and one of the co-authors of the Scottish study.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/omicron-severity-uk/2021/12/22/303d4d26-6337-11ec-9b51-7131fa190c5e_story.html?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert&wpmk=1&wpisrc=al_news__alert-national--alert-world--alert-hse&pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.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.hHS-WXTrrLY2BVU22nVDcCH6w4lAONlGCy4z20nCo_M

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Good news, but S Africa is real world too (same story). I know, LBN requirement: exact headline. .nt

[progree]

2. Politico (no paywall)

Omicron causes less severe disease, studies from Scotland, England suggest
The studies are the first in the UK to show the risk of hospitalization from Omicron versus Delta is lower.

https://www.politico.eu/article/omicron-delta-study-coronavirus-variant-restrictions-hospitalization-vaccine/

Scottish data -- looks at people admitted to hospital: a 2/3 reduction in hospitalizations in vaxxed young adults compared to Delta

English data is broader -- looks at all visitors to a hospital, including people who visit an accident and emergency department for just a few hours of monitoring before going home,- a 15 to 20 percent reduced risk in requiring any hospital treatment, compared with Delta and a 40 to 45% reduction in risk of being hospitalized for a night or more

[beaglelover]

3. Let's hope we see the same results here in the USA!

[former9thward]

4. Another article in the Post says new cases dropping fast in South Africa.

It is behind a paywall so I won't link it but it just came out.

[RussBLib]

5. that goes for the unvaxxed too?

seems unclear

[moriah]

6. "Qualified" good news, of course, especially in the US as many aren't vaxxed.

While we can hope less morbidity/mortality in the vaccinated compared to Delta will help those who have done their part and gotten vaccinated....

Clearly it's still capable of causing severe illness/death in the unvaccinated, and in older individuals (the studies seemed to say not enough over 60 had been in the study to see how it will affect older adults). Just how capable compared to Delta may only come from US data, and that data (how much it's going to crush our ICU capacity in low-vax states) isn't going to be clear for at least three weeks.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best is still the best strategy with fast-spreading variants.

I desperately DO want to see the circulating strain of this virus diminish in morbidity. Over time, a variant will likely emerge as dominant mainly because it's managing to only cause a cold, like the other human coronaviruses that now only cause colds (and can be presumed to have caused pandemics when they first emerged, which would be difficult to tell in the historical record from influenza). That'd be the ultimate "evolution" for the virus -- because we are only going to focus vaccination for a virus like that on those for whom colds send them to the hospital.

But because it all depends on chance, and so we might have gotten lucky... and we may still have a way to go in these woods.

I hope the anti-vaxxers don't suddenly start saying they did the right thing by not getting vaxxed so we have a better control group to study in comparison to the vaccinated, but that's what I told people who said they didn't want to be in an experiment. "All of humanity is already in one, you're just choosing to be in the control group."

[FBaggins]

16. The UK isn't dramatically ahead of the US on vaccination rates

But both are dramatically ahead of South Africa in that regard - and the data from there also supports this good news.

[moriah]

18. Maybe I'm overly cautious. The WaPo article quoted....

... said this data was not yet good enough with regard to sample size regarding unvaccinated seniors.

The UK has an overall rate much higher than that of Arkansas, the community in which I live, as well. Per our dashboard we have less than 55% of our population over five "fully vaccinated" (and while it doesn't calculate a percentage, my rough math says 15% have been boosted) . That's worse than even London in that breakdown, which was the worst region for people in that article.

I have started tracking my state's hospitalizations, ICU admissions, vent numbers, and deaths -- like I did when Delta started blooming here (though as I didn't have currently active cases in the data I collected for Delta, I won't be collecting that for Omicron either).

And I will hope that we see fewer deaths and people on vents, and especially hope fewer in ICU, in comparison to those admitted -- we CAN take care of without using ICU beds. The weakest point in our state's system is the number of ICU beds we can create/staff, and if neighboring states (as they have when Beta and Delta bloomed here) are experiencing similar problems we can't medflight people out to a hospital in another state -- even if it's for something non-COVID related.

That's the scary thing here. I want to believe this is the first step toward COVID trying to become what coronavirus OC-43 is now. But even the first step towards that, as good of a sign as it is that we might eventually beat this thing, might still royally fark up my state given Omicron's known strong ability to reinfect those who had Beta or Delta strains.

[mysteryowl]

7. Gov. Walz of Minnesota (D) has the omicron virus and said...

it is like having a bad cold.

[PSPS]

8. But just as likely to impart "long covid" to anyone who gets it.

[NH Ethylene]

9. I think it's too soon to know if that is the case.

But if the disease process is the same, which is seems to be in spite of the differences in the structure of the new variant, long covid will loom for many after Omicron.

[PSPS]

11. Vaccinated Isn't Enough: Omicron Carries the Risk of Long Covid

Vaccinated Isn’t Enough: Omicron Carries the Risk of Long Covid

President Biden told the U.S. that if you’re triple vaxxed, you’re safe for the holidays. That’s not only not true, it’s dismissing almost 10 million Americans affected by a chronic disease.

By Elizabeth Yuko

When President Joe Biden took the podium on the afternoon of Dec. 21 to address the country amid the massive surge in Covid-19 cases from the highly transmissible Omicron variant, he promised to give it to us straight. But despite providing additional details and updates to his Covid-19 action plan, and making a World War II-era plea to unvaccinated individuals (“Honest to God, I believe it’s your patriotic duty [to get vaccinated]”), he didn’t deliver.

Taking great pains to avoid mixed messaging on the effectiveness of the existing vaccines — which, to be clear, are extremely effective in preventing severe illness and death — Biden stressed that “we should all be concerned about Omicron, but not panicked.” He noted that because the variant spreads so easily, some fully vaccinated (and boosted) people will experience breakthrough Covid infections — “potentially in high numbers” — but that they have “much less reason to worry.” It was almost as if he was suggesting a triple-dose could be a substitute for caution.

But in reality, the president’s message didn’t give it to anyone straight, or even accurately. That’s because Long Covid — a dizzyingly lengthy list of new, returning, or ongoing health problems some people experience for months (and in some cases, close to two years) following their initial infection — wasn’t mentioned as one of the potential outcomes of Omicron infection. In fact, Biden didn’t mention Long Covid at any point during his speech. Here’s why that’s a problem.

It’s still unclear how many people infected by the novel coronavirus end up developing Long Covid, but the researchers behind a recent study published in the journal JAMA Network Open estimate that at least 50 percent of those who survive their initial illness go on to experience a number of physical, psychological, and neurological symptoms for a minimum of six months.

Like Covid-19 itself, the symptoms of Long Covid can range from being relatively mild (e.g. becoming out of breath more easily, sleep disruptions, intermittent joint pain) to those that are so severe they leave some people unable to work — like debilitating exhaustion, loss of mobility, cognitive impairment, and drastic personality changes.

More: https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-commentary/covid-omicron-long-covid-risk-1274717/

[NH Ethylene]

14. The author is making the assumption that Omicron will result in Long Covid cases.

And it probably will.

Though much remains unknown about omicron, experts say the variant could lead to long Covid, even with a mild case.

"We should assume that this variant can do the same thing that previous variants have until proven otherwise," Lee, of CUNY, said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/omicron-symptoms-covid-what-to-know-rcna9469

[Jacson6]

10. This sounds like poppycock.

Last edited Wed Dec 22, 2021, 11:30 PM - Edit history (1)

The severity of Covid-19 has not been lessened by the severity of the disease.

[NH Ethylene]

15. I think it means the severity on society as a whole.

On the sheer numbers of the sick, on the health care system, etc.

While good news for individuals, less severe disease combined with much higher numbers winds up being just as severe in its impact on communities.

[Skittles]

12. honestly, it always seems like a crap shoot to me

don't take any chances with this virus: be fully vaccinated, mask up and stop doing stupid shit like Christmas parties

[Deminpenn]

13. AFAIK, the natural course of viruses is to become

more transmissible and less virulent. This appears to be what is happening with SARS-CoV2.