Swing-district Democrats in need of a midterm reboot push leadership to break up BBB

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

House Democrats running for reelection in competitive districts, facing increasingly long odds of surviving a potential Republican wave, have confronted party leaders in recent days with demands for a new midterm strategy.

Among the requests of these so-called “front-liner” Democrats is to break up President Biden’s sprawling Build Back Better spending bill that has stalled in the Senate amid opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and hold votes on a series of politically popular provisions that would appeal to centrist voters and core Democrats alike.

These members have argued to top House leaders in recent days — so far, to no avail — that holding votes on narrow measures such as curbing prescription drug costs and extending the child tax credit would help Democrats make a case that they can improve voters’ lives economically despite soaring inflation and other issues that have dragged down Biden’s approval ratings.

The tension was surfaced in a meeting early this month with House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), the second-highest ranking member of their caucus. Members pushed back when Hoyer, reflecting the continued view of House leadership, argued that breaking up the spending bill would mean abandoning the potentially transformative giant package, which he said still has a chance of passage.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-bbb/2022/01/17/277e34da-7402-11ec-8ec6-9d61f7afbe17_story.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics

[dsc]

1. thanks to the filibuster we can't really do that

[brooklynite]

3. If you're going to hold votes and put Republicans on record...

...much better to do so with individual items, rather than a lump-sum bill.

[Lonestarblue]

2. BBB has no chance of passage because of Manchin and Sinema.

Holding out for everything and getting nothing makes no sense. Pass smaller bills and win more Democrats for the House and Senate so the major legislation can pass in 2023. Kowtowing to Manchin and Sinema has been a colossal waste of time because neither has negotiated in good faith and there is no indication that they will do so any time soon.

[dsc]

9. and how do you think the smaller bills will pass?

we can't do an infinite number of reconciliation bills. So at some point they would need 60 votes. And we won't have them.

[DallasNE]

15. This Is Exactly What Is Lost In The Debate

It has to be done by reconciliation protocol which requires paying for the legislation. BBB has the tax increases for those making over $400,000 a year to pay for it so it pretty much has to be a one and done deal. Breaking it up means the tax increases are lost, along with most of the other provisions. The filibuster results in death by a thousand cuts.

[HUAJIAO]

4. It hasn't "stalled in the Senate amid opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin II."

It has stalled because of fucking fascist republicans!

Damn WaPo !

[onenote]

5. We don't need any repubs to pass BBB

it's not subject to being filibustered.

What we need is all 50 Democrats to support it.

[HUAJIAO]

6. I just meant that the media NEVER blames it on republicans.

There are 50 of them and not a ONE will vote yay.

[brooklynite]

7. Its not their job to BLAME someone...

Its their job to report what's happening.

In the absence of Republican support, the Democratic policies are dependent on Democratic votes that either are or are not there.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

14. Yes, sir. The Wall of 50 is invisible to the mass media. Where they get that cloaking device??

And if you read the article it reads like a made up fairytale, full of speculation and even made up quotes from made up meetings thst may or may not have happened.

Really incredible poor journalism, tho it’s decent story telling.

[certainot]

8. predictions of a GOP wave are bullshit. the same dumbfuck analysts who've ignored rw radio for 30yrs

have missed the most significant blow to the GOP in recent history - the death of limbaugh.

trumpism rots with limbaugh's dead ass. republican disarray and loss of central messaging directly relates. then there's the investigations that are going to rattle many GOP congresspeople and senators - and limbaugh won't be there to lead the 1500 radio stations in the excuses and counterattack.

the only unified messaging the GOP has, echoed by much of the media, is that biden is a failure! and there's a GOP takeover coming.....

[oldsoftie]

13. You're not paying attention to the polls then.

I'm certainly NOT giving up, but the chance of losing the House is probably 75%. They only need 5 seats. And a ton of "retirements" arent helping either.
If gas prices & inflation havent improved by Nov, there's going to be trouble. Because THATS what the average voter will be looking at.
We have to watch the reality of the general public's opinions. DU isnt a representative of the GP.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

16. Probably 11 months to Election Day and the mass media can't ignore Sedition Day for

much longer….the Vegas odds right now are as flexible as a gymnast.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

17. Probably 11 months to Election Day and the mass media can't ignore Sedition Day for

much longer….the Vegas odds right now are as flexible as a gymnast.

[karynnj]

19. Retirements need to be considered carefully.

Many very senior people in very blue states are stepping down,. Those districts will be won by Democrats. For both Democrats and Republicans, we need to know how many are stepping down in purple districts or where it is only their personal appeal that let's them win in a district that really has a majority of the other party.

In addition, because of the census, most states are redistricting. The very early take was that this would be a disaster for us. The more recent take is it will be closer to a wash. Here, efforts to fight gerrymandering which have succeeded in some places have helped. In addition, the Republicans have done this for decades in many states and there was little more to gain.

At this point, Democrats are doing the important job of recruiting and supporting good candidates. Some of the issues that plaque us now will probably improve a lot. I think gas prices are already down. Inflation is just one metric of the economy. Economic growth, higher wages and lower unemployment are all to the good ... and to some degree, are consistent with higher inflation. At this point, I suspect that it may be the constant drumbeat on inflation that makes people respond as they do.

I hope that we are lucky and the covid numbers reach the low levels of June 2021 and that we are better prepared as the cooler fall weather approaches. I may be wrong, but I suspect that the unhappiness of many is that after staying safe until completely vaccinated, later getting boosters, we still hear of people close to us testing positive. My guess is that we all hoped we would be passed this. Even in highly vaccinated states, it is scary that the hospitals are again reaching their capacity. It does not really help to point out the hospitalization rate is FAR higher for the unvaccinated. It is still impacting our lives.

[oldsoftie]

20. All good points. I especially agree about the Covid.

It IS disconcerting that with the new variant you can be ding everything right and STILL get it.

[certainot]

27. RW media is driving the polls down and 1500 coordinated ALWAYS attacking dems drives a lot of

the negativity

the same shitferbrain liar blowhards that were calling covid and vaccines a hoax are going to keep blaming biden for the deaths and economic destruction caused by the pandemic. those stations will all continue to blame Biden/dems for everything but they will continue to lose unity and messaging power now without limbaugh leading the way. as the investigations ramp up and close in on trump he won't be there to keep all rw media and GOP reps in line or intimidate media in his defense.

as investigations ramp up and they start ratting on each other GOP rep resignations will overtake Dem resignations and some of those Dems will regret their decisions.

it will be a lot better for us if Dems actually stop ignoring rw radio until the ad industry has to start breaking up the monopoly

[oldsoftie]

28. Rush was alive when Trump LOST. Nobody listeing to him or RW radio is a Biden voter.

Most people dont pay attention to any politics until just around voting time.
On your other point, if you say you're not going to run for re-election isnt it possible for you to change your mind?

[certainot]

32. you have to be kidding. the only reason republicans can win outside a few very red areas is Dems

let them have rw radio. it wouldn't be close - that is the reason so many red states are red

at $1000/hr 1200 stations x 15 hrs a day = $90M/WEEK - FREE! for republicans until the elections. it doesn't matter what biden and Dems say or do or how much they tweak messaging. the RW think tanks just watch for progress that threatens their interests and send out a countering PR attack to the relevant local or national radio stations (not fox directly) - for FREE. endorsed by these 87 and other universities and pro sports teams

trump, llike bush, would never have gotten close to the WH in the first place without team limbaugh making excuses for him and attacking his opponents.

and this country is full of apathetic and too-lazy voters who vote at the last minute after absorbing months of rw radio buzz dominating their states and communities, wrapped around traffic, weather, news, sports, etc, and getting it second hand from friends and co-workers etc (politiccal experts who tell them single payer is communism, regulation increases prices, global warming is a hoax, hillary is corrupt, etc) who listen intently to what limbaugh and his parrots repeat

ignoring rw radio continues to be the biggest political mistake in history

[oldsoftie]

10. I've said that since day one. Singular bills.

Start with the most popular items & make the GOP show they are against them. NO add ons. Medicare drug negotiations alone. Repeat.

[Rebl2]

12. I agree!

[Rebl2]

11. Have been

thinking the same the last few days. They are just not going to get that large bill passed. Break it up and pass what you can.

[madville]

21. It's currently not possible in the Senate

The number of times reconciliation can be used in a fiscal year is limited by the Congressional Budget Act. So on a bunch of smaller individual bills they would need 60 votes in the Senate to get past the filibuster.

Probably the only individual thing that would have a remote chance of 60 votes would be extending the Child Tax Credit and I wouldn’t even consider that likely.

[PortTack]

18. Potential gqp wave...oh BS! The gerrymander they did is a wash, in fact if anything it ends up

Giving Dems more seats rather than them.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/?cid=rrpromo

[madville]

22. Independent voters are what will decide 2022

And recent polling shows independents #1 issue is the economy, specifically inflation and the prices of goods and services.

If prices continue rising or even maintain their current elevated levels, those voters will punish the party in power.

[PortTack]

24. A shift at midterms is common ..not arguing that.

It isn’t going to be a red wave due to gerrymandering

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/democrats-are-doing-weirdly-well-in-redistricting.html

[madville]

25. Gerrymandering is a popular boogie man

Both sides do it, California and Illinois have gerrymandered a few Republican seats away themselves, making GOP efforts more of a wash.

People say they want more “even and fair” congressional districts, that could actually increase volatility as far as control of the House, in any given election now there are potentially only 30-40 swing seats realistically in play, the rest are pretty safe.

[PortTack]

26. This

[oldsoftie]

29. It seems nobody wants to buy that

But I agree & its been proven time and time again

[madville]

30. Was just looking at some recent numbers today

42% of the voting public identify as Independents now, 29% as Democrats and 27% as Republicans. If Independents are most upset about inflation for instance, it better be a top priority for whoever wants to win this midterm.

[oldsoftie]

31. I agree, but the common refrain for that info is that most are "really republicans."

Because they "lean" that way. But I see them swinging back & forth. Obama voters voted for trump. Bush voters voted for Bill clinton.And I think these are also the people who dont spend a lot of time following politics until its close to election time.

[madville]

23. The Congressional Budget Act limits reconciliation

The Senate can only use it a limited number of times per fiscal year, like two or three. So multiple individual bills each would need 60 votes to overcome the filibuster, not very likely.

Is not succeeding on 10 individual bills much better politically than not succeeding on one large one? Not sure but they could at least get Republicans on record voting against the individual items.’