Retail sales surge 3.8% in January, much more than expected amid inflation rise

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: CNBC

ECONOMY

Retail sales surge 3.8% in January, much more than expected amid inflation rise

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 16 2022 8:32 AM EST UPDATED 2 MIN AGO
Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528 https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

Consumer spending bounced back sharply in January as rising inflation and a post-holiday surge kept cash registers ringing, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Retail sales for the month rose 3.8%, much better than the 2.1% Dow Jones estimate.

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so the 7.5% rise in the consumer price index for the month helped push a reversal from the 2.5% decline in December, which was revised lower from the initially reported 1.9% drop.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/retail-sales-january-2022.html

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Predicted:

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ECONOMY * ECONOMIC DATA

Retail Sales to Show Consumer Appetite for Spending Amid High Inflation

Economists expect vehicle purchases dominated consumer spending at start of year

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-january-2022-retail-sales-11644963650

By Harriet Torry
https://twitter.com/HarrietTorry
Feb. 16, 2022 5:30 am ET

Americans are expected to have increased retail spending last month as the Omicron surge of Covid-19 eased and prices rose.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the Commerce Department to report on Wednesday that retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 2.1% in January, a sharp rebound from December’s 1.9% month-over-month decline.

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[question everything]

1. Our economy is dependent on service, including retail sale.

Economists want us to spend, not to save so this is good for the economy.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. They keep swinging and missing month after month

I swear, this pandemic has truly upended the "expectations" of both the medical and scientific communities as well as the economic and business communities.

They keep clinging to what were "known constants based on past precedents", to predict the future, and refuse to accept that we are in a whole other world where the previous "norms" are not applicable at this time, even if it turns out years from now, that we were merely living through a freak blip in history.

[LogicFirst]

3. The more people complain about how much everything costs,

the more they buy.

[SonofBen]

4. Who didn't expect it?

If last month I spent $100 on food, gas, clothing, electric and such, that cost me $107.50 this month for the same stuff am I supposed to take the news that retail sales increased more than expected as good?

And if my 5.5% increase in SS got eaten up in 1 month shouldn't I be pissed?

The problem is who will people blame?

Turn down the thermostat, put on a sweater.
Read my lips, no new taxes.

1 term.

[IronLionZion]

5. People are buying tons of stuff because they have good jobs and saved up income

that's part of what's causing higher prices for things like cars and houses and major appliances

[roamer65]

6. If your fiat money is losing significant value, you spend it as quickly as possible.

That’s how it’s done in high inflation countries.

Argentina, Brazil, Zimbabwe, etc, etc.

[progree]

7. Apparently there's been corrections -- 7.5% rise in the CPI FOR THE MONTH?

OP excerpt:

Retail sales for the month rose 3.8%, ...

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so the 7.5% rise in the consumer price index for the month ...

7.5% rise in the CPI in one month????????? That some real serious jumping and soaring!!

What the article at the OP link now says (clarifying the monthly rise was 0.6% and that the 7.5% is a year-over-year number: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/retail-sales-january-2022.html

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation; the 0.6% rise in the consumer price index for the month ... CPI was up 7.5% on a year-over-year basis in January.

On a year-over-year basis, retail sales overall rose 13%, pushed higher by a 33.4% surge in gasoline station sales and a 21.9% burst in clothing stores.

In nominal terms, real spending increased at a 3.3% annualized pace from October 2021 through January 2022, according to Capital Economics. However, the firm cautioned that, when adjusted for inflation, real spending actually declined at a 6.8% pace during the period.

It said "surge" and "burst" in the next to last paragraph so it can't be true

The last paragraph sure sounds suspicious, but maybe so:


1.033
------- = (1-0.068)
. X

X=1.108 meaning 10.8% annualized inflation rate during that period

That is, a 10.8% inflation rate turns a 3.3% nominal increase into a 6.8% decline

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. The article's been updated.

We're talking annual rates. That distinction sometimes gets lost in those articles made right after the report is released.

From the original article:

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so the 7.5% rise in the consumer price index for the month helped push a reversal from the 2.5% decline in December, which was revised lower from the initially reported 1.9% drop.

Hat tip, progree

ECONOMY

Retail sales surge 3.8% in January, much more than expected amid inflation rise

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 16 20228:32 AM EST UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528 https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

KEY POINTS
• Retail sales increased 3.8% in January, well ahead of the 2.1% estimate and much better than the 2.5% decline in December.
• Online shopping and furniture sales boosted the number, while sporting goods and gasoline sales totals declined.
• The numbers reflect an active consumer as well as rising inflation.

Consumer spending bounced back sharply in January as rising inflation and a post-holiday surge kept cash registers ringing, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. ... Retail sales for the month rose 3.8%, much better than the 2.1% Dow Jones estimate.

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation; the 0.6% rise in the consumer price index for the month helped push a reversal from the 2.5% sales decline in December, which was revised lower from the initially reported 1.9% drop. CPI was up 7.5% on a year-over-year basis in January.

Excluding auto sales, the retail gain was 3.3%, after falling 2.8% in the previous month.

{snip}

[durablend]

9. And you know what happens?

Retail CEO: "They're still spending--crank those prices up some more!"