Wed Mar 23, 2022, 01:57 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
Putin says 'unfriendly countries' must buy Russian oil and gas in rubles.
Source: NY Times
On Wednesday President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia came up with a way to get his opponents to help prop up his currency, by demanding that “unfriendly countries” use rubles to buy the Russian oil and gas that is still flowing. “I have made a decision to implement in the shortest possible time a set of measures to switch payments for … our natural gas supplied to the so-called unfriendly countries to Russian rubles,” Mr. Putin said on Wednesday. Sanctions aimed at the Russian central bank effectively froze hundreds of billions of dollars of assets. The actions immediately drove down the value of the ruble as people frantically rushed to turn their rubles into a more stable currency, like the dollar or the euro. ... Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the action means that every time a Western country buys a barrel of oil it would be “propping up his domestic currency.” “If you’re invoiced in rubles, you’ve got to go out and buy rubles,” he said. “I don’t know if there is workaround.” Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/23/business/stocks-oil-inflation-ukraine#putin-russian-oil-gas-rubles ![]() The Russians have said this demand also applies to current contracts for Russian oil and gas that is still being delivered to countries in western Europe. ![]()
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29 replies, 3036 views
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Author | Time | Post |
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bluewater | Mar 2022 | OP |
L. Coyote | Mar 2022 | #1 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #2 | |
Martin68 | Mar 2022 | #3 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #4 | |
Martin68 | Mar 2022 | #5 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #8 | |
Martin68 | Mar 2022 | #11 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #16 | |
Martin68 | Mar 2022 | #26 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #27 | |
Martin68 | Mar 2022 | #29 | |
paleotn | Mar 2022 | #14 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #17 | |
brush | Mar 2022 | #24 | |
Akoto | Mar 2022 | #6 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #7 | |
AZLD4Candidate | Mar 2022 | #9 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #10 | |
paleotn | Mar 2022 | #13 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #20 | |
bluewater | Mar 2022 | #21 | |
Post removed | Mar 2022 | #12 | |
WinstonSmith4740 | Mar 2022 | #15 | |
sakabatou | Mar 2022 | #18 | |
Beastly Boy | Mar 2022 | #19 | |
rockfordfile | Mar 2022 | #22 | |
Slammer | Mar 2022 | #23 | |
IronLionZion | Mar 2022 | #25 | |
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin | Mar 2022 | #28 |
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 02:08 PM
L. Coyote (51,127 posts)
1. Putin's last futile means of propping up the ruble for a short while.
Which may not even work very well.
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Response to L. Coyote (Reply #1)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 02:31 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
2. "Are the days of US dollar dominance drawing to a close?"
Financial Review
Mar 20, 2022 – 8.00pm Are the days of US dollar dominance drawing to a close? Concern is growing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will accelerate the demise of the international financial system, and dislodge the US dollar from its privileged status. For many, reports that China and Saudi Arabia are now stepping up negotiations to price oil sales in yuan provided confirmation that the US dollar has now begun its ineluctable slide. As The Wall Street Journal reported last week, Saudi Arabia is now in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, a move that would dent the US dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market. The report comes as a growing number of analysts warn that Beijing’s determination to diminish the US dollar’s privileged position at the heart of international finance will have been bolstered by the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and its allies. ... The problem is that if the US dollar and US government bonds are no longer deemed risk free, there will be a growing focus on assets that are presently outside the global banking system, such as gold and commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Zoltan Pozsar, global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse, says a crisis unlike anything since Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971 is now under way, which will lead to the creation of a new world monetary order. https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/are-the-days-of-us-dollar-dominance-drawing-to-a-close-20220320-p5a67o It's clear that not only Russia but also, more importantly, China are actively planning to upend the world's existing international financial system, to their own perceived advantage. ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #2)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:30 PM
Martin68 (20,365 posts)
3. If anyone thinks the ruble will replace the dollar, they are in for a rude awakening.
I might point out that for some time China has been suggesting the dollar should be replaced. The problem is, trust is the only thing that validates a currency of international exchange, and authoritarian governments just don't have that trust.
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Response to Martin68 (Reply #3)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:39 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
4. No one thinks that, they think the Yuan could very well be a competitor though.
As suggested in that article from the Financial Review.
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Response to bluewater (Reply #4)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:46 PM
Martin68 (20,365 posts)
5. China's economy is going through some rough waters. I don't think anyone is bullish on the yuan
anymore. But more to the point, China's government can do whatever they want regardless of the rule of law and international agreements. That mitigates strongly against trust in the yuan as an international currency.
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Response to Martin68 (Reply #5)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:57 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
8. "China... can do whatever they want regardless of the rule of law and international agreements"
The thing is, China is saying that is the same problem with the US.
They kinda have a point. ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #8)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:21 PM
Martin68 (20,365 posts)
11. No they don't have a point. The international monetary system depends on the US as a trustworthy
partner that follows the rule of law and international monetary agreements. The same cannot be said for China. We used to think it might work, but events have proven otherwise. Our system is one of the most transparent in the world, we honor our agreements, and we pay our debts. Companies that invest in the US know what the rules are. China can and does change the rules anytime they like. The government works so closely with "private" companies, there is really no line between them.
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Response to Martin68 (Reply #11)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:32 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
16. Does the Iraq war ring a bell? And all the treaties the US "withdrew" from?
Iraq war was illegal and breached UN charter, says Annan
The United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, declared explicitly for the first time last night that the US-led war on Iraq was illegal. Mr Annan said that the invasion was not sanctioned by the UN security council or in accordance with the UN's founding charter. In an interview with the BBC World Service broadcast last night, he was asked outright if the war was illegal. He replied: "Yes, if you wish." He then added unequivocally: "I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN charter. From our point of view and from the charter point of view it was illegal." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/16/iraq.iraq United States withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka Iran Nuclear Agreement)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/us-withdrawal-open-skies/index.html U.S. Withdraws From Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/ U.S. withdraws from international accords, says U.N. world court 'politicized'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-diplomacy-treaty-idUSKCN1MD2CP That's a partial list I googled in 5 minutes. You can add in the unprecedent scope and size of financial sanctions that the US has just invoked too, those are the reason China is claiming the US has "weaponized the international financial system." Little things like freezing a country's foreign reserves, sanctioning transactions of gold reserves have many countries feeling less sure of the US as a trustworthy partner. ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #16)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 10:05 PM
Martin68 (20,365 posts)
26. And that its related to the international monetary system how? Yes, the US has violated
international norms in the name of national security. I don't deny that we have been wrong in that regard. But you don't seem to grasp that monetary, trade, and economic norms are a different ballgame, and in many respects, far more important.
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Response to Martin68 (Reply #26)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 11:56 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
27. "the unprecedent scope and size of financial sanctions that the US has just invoked"
I had an auto-correct typo that I just fixed. The typo was "financial transactions" when it should have been "financial sanctions".
Sorry about that. In any case this whole last paragraph does relate to the US's trustworthiness in international finance but you ignored it in your response: You can add in the unprecedent scope and size of financial sanctions that the US has just invoked too, those are the reason China is claiming the US has "weaponized the international financial system."
Little things like freezing a country's foreign reserves, sanctioning transactions of gold reserves have many countries feeling less sure of the US as a trustworthy partner. Care to address that also? In any case, thanks for the discussion and have a good night. ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #27)
Thu Mar 24, 2022, 11:23 AM
Martin68 (20,365 posts)
29. I would suggest that the situation in Ukraine is an international emergency that requires
extraordinary measures. The US did not impose sanctions unilaterally - Europe supports the effort as well (this is the worst outbreak of military violence in Europe since WW II). This is a fight for survival, and any tool that can be brought to bear short of the use of WMD is justified. If that means to you that the US is not a trustworthy partner, then I'm afraid we just disagree. China is not "many countries." How many countries feel that the US is a less trustworthy partner because of sanctions against Russia? Russia and China have both refused to be constrained by the rules and conventions that the rest of the world have agreed upon for the sake of international harmony and trust.
Thank you for engaging in this discussion with me. I hope my passion is not interpreted as disrespect. |
Response to bluewater (Reply #8)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:24 PM
paleotn (15,790 posts)
14. PPFFFFFTTTTtttt!
Um, no.
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Response to paleotn (Reply #14)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:41 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
17. The Illegal Iraq War? US Abrogating treaties? So, um yes.
Iraq war was illegal and breached UN charter, says Annan
The United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, declared explicitly for the first time last night that the US-led war on Iraq was illegal. Mr Annan said that the invasion was not sanctioned by the UN security council or in accordance with the UN's founding charter. In an interview with the BBC World Service broadcast last night, he was asked outright if the war was illegal. He replied: "Yes, if you wish." He then added unequivocally: "I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN charter. From our point of view and from the charter point of view it was illegal." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/16/iraq.iraq United States withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka Iran Nuclear Agreement)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action US formally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty that bolstered European security
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/us-withdrawal-open-skies/index.html U.S. Withdraws From Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/ U.S. withdraws from international accords, says U.N. world court 'politicized'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-diplomacy-treaty-idUSKCN1MD2CP That's a partial list I googled in 5 minutes. ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #17)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 08:37 PM
brush (46,938 posts)
24. All of that in post after post but the dollar is still the international standard.
Last edited Thu Mar 24, 2022, 01:28 AM - Edit history (1) That should tell you something. There is trust in the dollar. Other currencies don't have that.
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Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:48 PM
Akoto (4,260 posts)
6. Why would they give China that power? Why not price in Saudi riyal?
Response to Akoto (Reply #6)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 03:54 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
7. For the same reasons they started using dollars, the size and stability of their economy
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:13 PM
AZLD4Candidate (4,526 posts)
9. Will crap stained used toilet paper work, Vladdie? They are both worth about the same.
Response to AZLD4Candidate (Reply #9)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:17 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
10. The ruble is doing surprisingly better, actually.
I am shocked at how well.
Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ruble was trading at ~78 rubles to 1 US dollar, as it was pretty much for the previous year. On March 7th during the invasion of Ukraine, the exchanged rate reached its most unfavorable value hitting 135.5 rubles to 1 US dollar. After Putin announced Russia is now demanding payment in rubles for its oil and gas, the exchange rate improved considerably and today is 89.5 rubles to 1 US dollar. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/currencyconverter/fi-avys2w?ocid=ansMSNMoney11&duration=1D ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Reply #10)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:23 PM
paleotn (15,790 posts)
13. Wait until the default.
Response to paleotn (Reply #13)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 05:08 PM
bluewater (5,376 posts)
20. "US Treasury to allow Russia's $117 million bond payment to go through in dollars"
Russia says it made a $117 million bond payment — a move to avoid defaulting on its debt — and the US Treasury Department said it would allow the installment.
Russia's finance minister told state-run media Thursday that the country fulfilled a debt obligation, and noted that it's up to the US as to whether the payment would be allowed. The Treasury said it would let the payment go through. Reuters reported Thursday that correspondent bank JPMorgan received the payment and made a credit to the paying agent Citigroup, which is responsible for distributing the money to investors. ... Putin's forces launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine last month, unleashing a wave of sanctions from the West that have largely cut off Russia from global financial markets and blocked it from accessing about half of its $640 billion in foreign currency reserves. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-treasury-allow-russia-bond-payment-go-through-avoid-default-2022-3 Well, Russia has enough Foreign Reserves to meet its relatively small foreign debt obligations AND the US has allowed the latest payment to go thru on March 16 even though it said those funds were frozen. Perhaps because not doing so would cause too much financial pain to western investors. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see what transpires. Oh, and enjoy your day. ![]() ![]() |
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Post removed
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:30 PM
WinstonSmith4740 (2,975 posts)
15. Sounds like a freaking deal.
Isn't the ruble worth, like, nothing? Even at that, it's too much to pay that monster. He can eat his oil and gas reserves.
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Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:42 PM
sakabatou (40,316 posts)
18. Might as well use Monopoly money by now.
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 04:44 PM
Beastly Boy (5,906 posts)
19. I am trying to picture the logistics of this transaction.
A barrel of crude for two barrels of rubles?
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Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 06:50 PM
rockfordfile (8,584 posts)
22. bitcoin is a threat to National Security of our country.
All of these attempts to "replace the dollar" is a threat to our country.
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Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 07:42 PM
Slammer (712 posts)
23. Turkish lira
That might have been a good idea at the beginning of the sanctions. But now, the EU has barred countries from transferring Euros into Russia and the US has barred dollar transfers. It's not going to have as strong of an effect for countries to go out and buy the Turkish lira or the Mexican peso and use that to buy rubles. In fact, buying the Turkish lira might be a good idea. They're scrambling to stabilize their currency by bringing in foreign currency after having 73% inflation last year. Use Turkish lira to buy rubles. Use rubles to buy gas and oil products. Russia at the end of it is still stuck with a currency that'll lost a large chunk of it's value by the end of the year. |
Response to bluewater (Original post)
Wed Mar 23, 2022, 08:54 PM
IronLionZion (42,076 posts)
25. If rubles are cheap, buyers might get a discount
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Response to bluewater (Original post)
Thu Mar 24, 2022, 02:04 AM
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (97,357 posts)