IPCC report: 'now or never' if world is to stave off climate disaster

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: The Guardian

The world can still hope to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown but only through a “now or never” dash to a low-carbon economy and society, scientists have said in what is in effect a final warning for governments on the climate.

Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, and can be nearly halved this decade, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to give the world a chance of limiting future heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The final cost of doing so will be minimal, amounting to just a few percent of global GDP by mid-century, though it will require a massive effort by governments, businesses and individuals.

But the chances were narrow and the world was failing to make the changes needed, the body of the world’s leading climate scientists warned. Temperatures will soar to more than 3C, with catastrophic consequences, unless policies and actions are urgently strengthened.



Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/04/ipcc-report-now-or-never-if-world-stave-off-climate-disaster

---

Summary for Policymakers: https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

The cost of ending the climate crisis is small, the IPCC concludes. Global GDP is expected to double by 2050 and halving emissions by 2030, to keep on track for 1.5C, would shave 1-2% of that doubling. Taking into account the climate damages avoided and the savings in adapting to extreme weather, investing in emissions cuts saves money.
...
The IPCC also emphasises the inequality of global heating and the need for climate justice. The Least Developed Countries (LDC), a grouping of 46 nations, have contributed less than 0.4% of emissions since 1850. The Small Island Developing States, 38 countries that face disappearing under rising seas, contributed 0.5%.

In contrast, the IPCC states that, globally, the 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based emissions. North Americans have a CO2 footprint of nearly 20 tonnes a year, while people in Africa and South Asia are below five tonnes.

A net zero future can be achieved, the IPPC says, while bringing millions out of poverty, but the finance needed is missing: “Financial flows fall short of the levels needed to achieve [emission-cutting] goals across all sectors and regions.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/04/its-over-for-fossil-fuels-ipcc-spells-out-whats-needed-to-avert-climate-disaster

[CrispyQ]

1. "...it will require a massive effort by governments, businesses and individuals."

Like we did on Covid?

We're fucked.

[2naSalit]

4. +1

[Delphinus]

7. Pretty much.

They never talk about the 50 years of baked in warming we are facing. Even if we stop this instant, warming will continue for 50 years.

(I'm going to go find that chapter and insure it really is 50 years baked in.)

[femmedem]

20. Fortunately, scientists no longer think there is "baked in" global warming if we stop emissions.

"The first step is to get rid of an old idea that the public, the media and policymakers are not clear on—the notion that even if humans stopped emitting carbon dioxide overnight, inertia in the climate system would continue to raise temperature for many years. Because CO2 can persist in the atmosphere for a century or more, the argument goes, even if the concentration stopped rising, temperature would keep going up because the heat-trapping mechanism is already in place. In other words, some level of future warming is “baked into” the system, so it’s too late to avoid the 1.5-degree threshold.


But scientists discounted that idea at least a decade ago. Climate models consistently show that “committed” (baked-in) warming does not happen. As soon as CO2 emissions stop rising, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 levels off and starts to slowly fall because the oceans, soils and vegetation keep absorbing CO2, as they always do. Temperature doesn’t rise further. It also doesn’t drop, because atmospheric and ocean interactions adjust and balance out. The net effect is that “temperature does not go up or down,” says Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute—Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London. The good news is that if nations can cut emissions substantially and quickly, warming can be held to less than 1.5 degrees."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/theres-still-time-to-fix-climate-about-11-years/

That said, I'm otherwise pessimistic.

[Delphinus]

30. Oh, excellent!

Jared Diamond's book was, gosh, has to be close to twenty years ago. Good to hear this - thank you!

[femmedem]

33. You're welcome!

I remember my sense of relief when I read it.

[UT_democrat]

16. +1

Don't worry. If regular folks just keep recycling their plastic we'll be fine. This way big business won't have to make any changes in the way they pollute the earth!
🤬

[LudwigPastorius]

28. I'm doing my part by sequestering microscopic plastic in my bloodstream,...

to keep it out of the ocean!



https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/microplastics-detected-in-human-blood-180979826/

[sakabatou]

21. Yup.

[Random Boomer]

2. They're just guessing.

This whole "stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown by acting now" is a wildly optimistic guess and an assumption that we haven't overlooked even more feedback loops already in motion and tipping points already toppling over, processes that will continue inexorably onward regardless of what we do.

Since every new revelation falls into the "faster than we anticipated" side of the equation, I'm far less convinced that we haven't already passed the point of no return. But we're not even trying to hit the brakes, so it's all a moot point. We're doomed.

[Mickju]

6. I agree with you 100%.

[TeamProg]

11. It won't take that long to thaw most of the frozen methane on land and in the oceans.

I think the Atlantic Ocean conveyor of warm water has already begun to slow, meaning freezing temps for western Europe crops and more ice storms for our north-east, more flash floods for our south-east.

Plant-life and food sources cannot adapt quick enough.

Equatorial latitudes will be uninhabitable due to high wet bulb heat and humidity.


Yeah, it's not looking good.

[AllTooEasy]

3. Let me guess, Repukes chose "Never"

Nothing more.

[AllTooEasy]

5. Let me guess, Repukes chose "Never"

Nothing more.

[TeamProg]

8. "..Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible."

"""""Jim Skea, a professor at Imperial College London and co-chair of the working group behind the report, said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”

The report on Monday was the third and final section of the IPCC’s latest comprehensive review of climate science, drawing on the work of thousands of scientists. IPCC reports take about seven years to compile, making this potentially the last warning before the world is set irrevocably on a path to climate breakdown.""""""""


Expect massive environmental refugees, suffering food shortages, and relentless heat and floods because I can hear the GQP reponses now:

"The Radical Left wants to CANCEL our economy!"


"What did my diesel truck ever do to me? Did it attack me or kill me family?"


"Don't Say Global Warming!"

[Grokenstein]

9. Educated People: "We have to do something right now."

Republickscum Senator: "Don't listen. I have a snowball. Everything's fine."
Rightwanker Media Pundit: "Y ELEETIST LIBS HAET FREEDUM???"
'Murikan Voter: "Man, fuck the future. I just wanna roll coal for cheap."

[Auggie]

10. I believe some of the 1% wants "never." It's their long-awaited great Shock Doctrine opportunity ...

to pass legislation that favors and promotes their wealth.

I believe they think their money and connections will save them from the ugly reality of famine. A new Feudalism, with themselves as self-appointed Lords, is their ideal.

[oldsoftie]

12. Well then its "never". Because it aint happening in 30 months.

Especially with Putin spewing so much EXTRA shit into the atmosphere.

And not enough people are on board with nuclear; which is the ONLY way to even come close to doing what's needed

[orleans]

13. debbie downer here

i'm going to say "never"

i am so distraught by this topic i can't even stand to read about it anymore

[bucolic_frolic]

14. Was hoping for big things from remote work and cocooning

But I see pickups haulin' A everywhere and caravans clogging traffic.

[FreepFryer]

15. What jobs in what companies or organizations would be best to meet this goal? That's the failure imo

Retooling the economy to meet the urgent demand - and compensating the labor needed - is the solution, not mere cardboard targets of output.

Create the opportunities and people with commitment will follow thru.

[Moostache]

17. Anyone who is going to be alive in 2050 and beyond (a mere 28 years on...)

had best be prepared to fight for food, water and arable land to survive.

Society as it is currently conceived and constructed is going away between 2050 and 2075.
Massive resource wars and horrors that will make WWII seem like a dress rehearsal are coming.

Poor people living in coastal regions of place like China, India, Indonesia, Central America and wherever else poor people accumulate are going to die by the BILLIONS not with an "m"...BILLIONS, with a "b". Starvation, lack of clean water and war will thin the population sinificantly.

Homo Sapiens was unique among known life forms - he could understand temporal concepts and object permanance. He could contemplate his 'purpose' and understand the consequences of his actions. But the savanah-monkey brain never shook off greed and lust for power...

Tragic and sad, but also now inveitable.

[Jetheels]

18. A low-carbon economy? Doesn't sound like capitalism.

And all the major countries of the world coming together on climate change? Many don’t even believe it’s real. I doubt that’s going to happen.
So “never”.

[Achilleaze]

19. "Hell no. Solutions would mess up our key-bump sex orgies." - KGOP

Republicans are unwilling to sacrifice their secret drug and sex power orgies for the sake of life itself.

Rather short sighted, if you ask me.

[Escurumbele]

22. STEP 1. Stop Putin from throwing Bombs, then jail Putin.

[modrepub]

23. It Was Always Never

Unless you're going to pay the folks who own the reserves and capital to process fossil fuels, you never stood a chance. In the long run, buying them out would probably have been cheaper.

Trying a top-down approach was probably always bound to fail. It's too easy for a few folks to gum up the works. Better to apply small changes on a local level (and keep the bastard higher ups on the sidelines).

[muriel_volestrangler]

24. I'm not sure what "small changes on a local level" means

but unless the entire world makes significant changes, it doesn't work. Like: not using fossil fuels for home heating. Not using fossil fuels for transport. Not buying electricity from suppliers that generate it with fossil fuel.

I'm not sure how you think that would have been "approached", without going "top-down". Do you think the whole public in the world would have been poised to do all that without government intervention, but somehow aren't doing it now - and what reasons would you give for why we're not doing it now?

[modrepub]

32. We've Been Trying High Level Government Policies For Decades

It's not going to work (obviously). Democrats President/Congress, one Senator gums the whole works up (because he gets paid through a coal corporation he set up decades ago).

Better to take lots of little steps on the local level. Start with energy efficiency. Most big cities have housing stock that's 100 years old (and not energy efficiency). Set up a program to have older houses re-windowed or updated so they need less heating/cooling. A program like that will put local people to work and maybe teach them a trade. Increases the tax base, improves housing stock and lowers energy consumption

Along this line, make better building codes that stress energy efficiency. Repurpose older buildings to be more efficient. Better planning to reduce commute times. Keep road improvements in urban areas to decrease travel times (reduce emissions from idle or slow moving vehicles).

Have state collective programs like RGGI (regional green gas initiative) that will do on the state level what can't be done on the federal level.

Fricken encourage people to change their driving habits to increase their vehicle gas milage. Turn on you instantaneous gas consumption meter on your car and learn how to drive so that you aren't wasting fuel. I routinely get a few extra miles a gallon more than my other family members. If we all did that guess how much gas we'd save?

BUY STOCK and vote your proxy. Avoid mutual funds where someone else gets to express their opinions to the corporate boards. A lot of companies can be enticed to take climate actions if there are enough people participating in board elections to get them to notice. I met a cement company executive in the 90s who took it upon himself to find ways for his plants to reduce their carbon footprint because he took global warming seriously. There are ethical people in the business world (more so than politicians). Identify them, encourage them and promote them.

We all have a part to play. A lot of little actions can make a big difference. Yea the 800 pound Gorilla in the room is a nice deterrent but a nest of stinging hornets can be just as effective.

[Justice matters.]

25. Joe Manchin doesn't care.

Personal yearly earnings must prevail forever.

[hunter]

26. Europe can't even quit Russian fossil fuels in the face of war atrocities.

And look how U.S. Americans have responded to rising gasoline prices.

What would happen to any politician who said they were going to ban all fossil fuels within some meaningful time period, say twenty years?

They'd be roasted alive.

[LudwigPastorius]

27. I'm glad I never had kids.

...because their, and their kids, lives would be one long slide into a post-apocalyptic hellscape.

[maxsolomon]

29. It was always never.

We'll muddle through. Eventually the fossil fuels will run out, but the earth will be diminished.

[hunter]

31. I always take the long view.

In a few million years nothing will be left of humanity but a curious layer of garbage in earth's geologic record and bits of junk in outer space. Earth's ecosphere will be rapidly recovering from the mass extinction event that humans brought upon themselves.

Sure our species will muddle through for a while, but we were always a candle in the wind.

In the short term, say the next thousand years, I think we already have the technology and political ideologies we'll need to dig ourselves out of this mess. We just have to apply them.

The greatest threat to our species is anti-intellectual religions and political ideologies.