States line up for fight to go first in Democrats' next presidential primary

[brooklynite]

Source: Politico

More than a dozen states and at least one territory are applying to be among the first to vote for Democrats’ next presidential nominee — with the biggest pile-up coming out of the Midwest, where states are jockeying to take Iowa’s long-held early spot.

Fifteen state parties and counting, plus Puerto Rico, have submitted letters of intent to the Democratic National Committee ahead of a Friday deadline to be considered as a 2024 early state, according to a POLITICO tally. The process — the first major reimagining of the early-state presidential order in years — is being run through the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, which will hear pitches from different states in late June and recommend a new early-state lineup to the full DNC by July.

The roster of states looking to go early hails from all over the country, including New Jersey, Washington, Colorado and Georgia. But a particularly intense competition is brewing in the Midwest, where Iowa — whose lack of diversity and messy caucus process drew Democratic ire in 2020, sparking the new look at the calendar — has been forced to reapply for its traditional slot. It is under pressure from five other states seeking to be the regional representative in the early-state lineup, depending on how broadly the DNC defines the region: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The shakeup is part of a broader move by forces in the Democratic Party that want to eliminate caucuses and give more influence to voters of color. While Democrats moved Nevada and South Carolina forward on the calendar in 2008 to increase the racial diversity of the voters who get an early say on presidential nominations, the party voted this spring to fully reopen the nominating process, including the first two spots occupied for a half-century by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/06/democratic-primary-2024-dnc-early-states-00030560

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. My vote would go to Illinois or one of the Rust Belt states. Nt

[brooklynite]

2. Chicago is a very expensive media market

You’ll give the edge to candidate with a big war chest.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I was just thinking about demographics- so MI, MN, WI then.

IA and NH have got to be bumped down the calendar.

Shake up politics as usual, make the media earn their pay checks, instead of lazily crafting yet another Inevitability Narrative.

[brooklynite]

4. What inevitability narrative was there in 2020?

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Not as strong as in the past, more of an "electability" narrative

Which, in general, is a worthwhile discussion to have, but the media feeding frenzy in IA and NH amplified Electability over policy and governance discussions.

Some of that is bound to happen in open primaries with no incumbent, but I think shaking up the primary calendar will counter some the lazy journalism of the past few cycles.

[brooklynite]

6. Still waiting to hear what the "narrative" was that you think was occurring.

The media has discussed the "horserace" aspects for decades. That won't change because you start with a different State.

[867-5309.]

11. The first states have greater influence

and we need those states to be more diverse.

[brooklynite]

14. Name a candidate who faltered after IA/NH...

...and who would have done better elsewhere.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Biden was the only candidate who improved after IA/NH, and largely due to Clyburn/SC primary

Many candidates dropped out before the first primary.

Candidates spend a lot of money before the first vote is cast, and then two states who will have no impact on the outcome in the general vote, and those results, along with the media narrative, make it very difficult to raise money and stay in the race if you didn’t win one or both of those meaningless states.

Biden was only able to survive because he had a big war chest and entered the race later than most if not all the other candidates, (didn’t he miss the first couple debates because he hadn’t declared yet?) so spent less of his funds before the first votes were cast. That’s another reason to not only change which state goes first, but to move the first primary later in the calendar, say to March. That would be better for everyone except the campaign consultants.

[Demsrule86]

19. I am sorry the current primary schedule is outdated and needs to go. How many elections were

lost because a certain candidate won two small non-diverse states in the first round of primaries.

[brooklynite]

21. Answer your own question...

I don't see any different outcomes...

1984

Nominee: Walter Mondale
Iowa Caucus winner: Walter Mondale
NH Primary winner: Gery Hart
Other candidates:
Jesse Jackson
John Glenn
George McGovern
Reubin Askew
Alan Cranston
Ernest Hollings

1988

Nominee: Mike Dukakis
Iowa Caucus winner: Richard Gephardt
NH Primary winner: Mike Dukakis
Other candidates:
Jesse Jackson
Al Gore
Paul Simon
Gary Hart

2000

Nominee: Al Gore
Iowa Caucus winner: Al Gore
NH Primary winner: Al Gore
Other candidates:
Bill Bradley

2004

Nominee: John Kerry
Iowa Caucus winner: John Kerry
NH Primary winner: John Kerry
Other candidates:
Dennis Kucinich
Al Sharpton
John Edwards
HowardDean
Wesley Clark
Joe Lieberman
Dick Gephardt
Carol Moseley Braun

2016

Nominee: Hillary Clinton
NH Primary winner: Bernie Sanders
Other candidates:
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee

[Demsrule86]

22. It is rhetorical...Since Iowa has decided in all but two of the modern elections -Joe Biden

for sure and Bill Clinton too. Iowa is not a good state to have that much power...no diversity and no ties to the rust belt...and as you pointed out...GOP run.

[Demsrule86]

25. Hillary did win the Iowa Caucus and every candidate on that list lost the General.

Perhaps, if the election wasn't mostly over in the first three states, we would have had a better outcome...the elections you posted do not...make your case...quite the opposite. We have Iowa and New Hampshire and then the press declares it over. This is not a good idea, but I do appreciate your effort. That took a while and thanks for the discussion...but I remain unpersuaded.

[brooklynite]

26. "the elections you posted do not...make your case"

My case is that starting with any other States you choose wouldn't have advanced another candidate to the nomination.

[Demsrule86]

18. Well that was an exception wasn't it? The only other time was with Bill Clinton...so

no rustbelt states which are essential to winning the General get to pick the candidate ...already decided by the time most vote...the current map is outdated and must change...no more caucuses either.

All I heard after New Hampshire is how it was so over for Biden...and yet I do not believe any other candidate could have won a General. And one campaign was actually planning to earn around 30 % of the vote in a crowded field and manage a win-even though a key Demographic would have been unrepresented...it needs to end.

[Demsrule86]

24. Joe Biden ran the primary with very Little money. He could not even advertise in Super

Tuesday states.

[question everything]

7. Not much Iowa can do about diversity, but it would have a better chance, I think

replacing the caucuses with a primary.

Not only are caucuses bad because they disenfranchise the ones who cannot be at a specific time at a specific place, the votes are not secret. One has to stand in front of family and neighbors, perhaps even bosses, and be counted.

[brooklynite]

8. That's the one thing it CAN'T do.

The Republican Governor and State Legislature want Iowa to go first for the publicity and the financial infusion. The only way to do that and not get into a fight with NH is to keep a Caucus. They'll never approve a Primary.

[question everything]

12. In that case they will lose either way since the party is set - it is, right?

to change the way things were done.

I still think that rotating regional primaries is the way to go.

[brooklynite]

13. THEY will lose nothing...

The Republicans could care less whether Iowa has representation in the Democratic Presidential contest.

[Demsrule86]

20. Then they need to go at the end. Sorry.

[Demsrule86]

23. It is unfortunate...but there it is. Kick out the GOP and change it.

[867-5309.]

10. Kudos for FINALLY bucking the Iowa / New Hampshire nonsense

Minorities being fairly represented in those crucial slots is long overdue.

[slightlv]

15. I like this latest breaking news...

but unless they realize getting Womens rights out there as Human Rights and DOING something about it RIGHT NOW and not just letting it slip off the news as "yesterday's outrage" there isn't going to be an election in 2024 for anything...

This isn't going to mean a damned thing!

[Ligyron]

17. There was a time I would have called such talk alarmist.

Not so much anymore…

[slightlv]

27. Me, too...

Now I have to talk to my doc about finding a better med for my blood pressure before I stroke out!