US Jobless Claims Fall More Than Forecast in Tight Labor Market

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Bloomberg

Markets
Economics

US Jobless Claims Fall More Than Forecast in Tight Labor Market
-- Applications for unemployment insurance drop to 210,000
-- Fed raising rates may slow hiring or lead to layoffs this year

By Olivia Rockeman
May 26, 2022, 8:32 AM EDT Updated on May 26, 2022, 8:38 AM EDT

@livrockeman
https://www.twitter.com/livrockeman

Applications for US unemployment insurance declined last week by more than forecast, underscoring a persistently tight labor market.

Initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 210,000 in the week ended May 21, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a drop to 215,000.

{paywall}

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/us-jobless-claims-fell-by-more-than-forecast-last-week

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, May 26, 2022

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,750, an increase of 7,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 199,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending May 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 14 was 1,346,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,317,000 to 1,315,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,347,500, a decrease of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 17, 1970 when it was 1,340,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,362,250 to 1,361,750.

{snip}

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending May 7 was 1,317,178, a decrease of 54,282 from the previous week. There were 15,797,261 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.

{snip the rest of the ten-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 22-1012-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[David__77]

2. Media take capitalist perspective in seeing this is bad.

“Tight”, “shortage”, etc. They’d rather there be too many workers as a means to club people over the head and control them for fear of starvation.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Have you tried the World Socialist website? They might have a viewpoint more to your liking.

US/NATO-provoked war in Ukraine creates food crisis in Africa

[David__77]

5. Do you disagree with what I said and if so how?

…

[LiberalArkie]

4. What with a million plus people gone because of Covid, I would expect more jobs than people.

[former9thward]

7. The vast, vast majority of those who died were not in the workforce.

Elderly or disabled in some form where they were not working.

[LiberalArkie]

8. Maybe in other areas I guess. Down here many food plant workers were incapcitated or died, along

with hospital workers, nurses, truck drivers, home health workers.

[former9thward]

9. Cases are not deaths.

From the CDC:

Deaths 65 and older 747,000 out of the 1,000,2000. So about 75%. Those 50-64 335,000 (many disabled and not in the workforce).
Which is almost all the deaths.

https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true

[LiberalArkie]

10. Probably do not have to die to affect the work force. A truck driver can be alive and on oxygen the

rest of his life and be out of the workforce. An awful lot of people will never be able to work at what they used to do. A brick layer may only be fit to flip burgers when he gets well enough.

I have several people I know who now struggle to do their daily job after a brush with Covid, just tested positive, with cough and fever, no hospital. I hope in the years to come they get better, but it is hard for a 35 year old couple to do what they did before the Covid.

That probably plays in to the numbers a lot.

[Chellee]

11. Not to mention all the people that took early retirement.

I personally know five people that have retired rather than going back to work. It was earlier than they planned or anticipated, but Covid changed their priorities.

[progree]

6. Looks like we got another 50+ year low -- 4 week moving average of continuing claims

From #1, the BLS -

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ((aka continuing claims --Progree)) ... The 4-week moving average was 1,347,500, a decrease of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 17, 1970 when it was 1,340,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,362,250 to 1,361,750.

Unfortunately continuing claims went from 1.315 million to 1.346 million:

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 14 was 1,346,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level.

The big jobs report (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls) is in 8 days (Friday June 3)