Consumer confidence dips on worries over inflation and slowing U.S. economy

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: MarketWatch

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Consumer confidence dips on worries over inflation and slowing U.S. economy

Last Updated: May 31, 2022 at 11:08 a.m. ET
First Published: May 31, 2022 at 10:14 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

Consumer confidence index drops to 106.4 in May from 108.6

The numbers: A survey of U.S. consumer confidence fell slightly in May to a three-month low of 106.4, reflecting worries about high inflation and a slowdown in the economy.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to total 103.9.

The index was revised up to 108.6 in April.

Big picture: The U.S. economy is still growing, but government spending has tapered off and high inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to jack up interest rates. Higher rates could eventually slow the economy.

On the flip side, the strongest labor market in decades and rising wages have offset some of the damage from high inflation and allowed consumers to keep spending. Consumer spending is the main driver of the U.S. economy.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-dips-on-worries-over-inflation-and-slowing-economy-11654006453

[progree]

1. A non-paywalled link to the same article

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/consumer-confidence-dips-on-worries-over-inflation-and-slowing-u-s-economy/ar-AAXVuWY?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&cvid=d99ba0980e0d4a1ab72e0f40fef3d9a8

Unfortunately, it doesn't say a thing about whether these are good or bad numbers. But they say life sucks and then you die.

I did notice that it beat expectations (106.4 vs. an expected 103.9), but I'm not much of an expectations guy, but to some, that's almost all that matters.

[peppertree]

7. Great point as usual, progree. Historical context in key to these numbers

They're using Conference Board numbers, which are usually more 'upbeat' than the rival Univ. of Michigan numbers.

But they seem to be in what historically has been moderately bullish territory for this series (over 100).

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

(you'll note that 1985=100 - as '85 was a good year, all in all)

[progree]

8. Thanks much for the background and link 😊 nt

[peppertree]

10. You bet.

Thanks for research and keen insights.

[progree]

9. "usually more 'upbeat' than the rival Univ. of Michigan numbers."

For sure, those are in the toilet -- almost down to the Great Recession bottom

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. The UM numbers come out on Friday, June 10.

Final Results for May 2022
May Apr May M-M Y-Y
2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 58.4 65.2 82.9 -10.4% -29.6%
Current Economic Conditions 63.3 69.4 89.4 -8.8% -29.2%
Index of Consumer Expectations 55.2 62.5 78.8 -11.7% -29.9%
Featured Chart (PDF)

Next data release: Friday, June 10, 2022 for Preliminary June data at 10am ET

[peppertree]

14. God help us all

It's the modern-day U.S. variant on Nixon's "make the economy scream" regime change strategy:

Big Business jacks up prices (and profits), puts the squeeze on sentiment and the economy, and of course ramps up the media mouthpieces - just before a key election.

The inevitable result: a fascist takeover.

That seems to be the goal, anyway. I can only hope God's sense of humor has the last word.

[ancianita]

2. Which means corporations think they're winning their beat-down game. Next stage

is to heavily campaign against Democrats on this all summer when gas is highhigh by cranking up the FOX exposure in all travel hotels and restaurants.

[durablend]

5. "Need to craaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank up those gas prices some more!"

[ancianita]

6. Here in Red FL, gas is up to $4.59 a gallon. Wonder what it is in blue states. And it's only June.

[progree]

3. Found another non-paywalled - this from Reuters. But doesn't tell me if its bad or good

just that it's above pandemic era lows. Well, gosh, I'd hope so. Also, either this or the Marketwatch article said the current reading is at a 3 month low.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-consumer-confidence-edges-down-in-may-house-prices-soar-in-march/ar-AAXVv5M?ocid=msedgdhphdr&cvid=d99ba0980e0d4a1ab72e0f40fef3d9a8

[BlueGreenLady]

4. I've been wondering about the great housing bubble that is developing in my town.

I've also read about it in other cities. Real Estate Investors are buying up houses, remodeling them and doubling the market price for them. There are at least 3 empty houses being remodeled in my neighborhood now. I don't see how young, new home buyers can afford them and I don't see Baby Boomers buying them. So, who will be the buyers??

[womanofthehills]

12. Blackrock

Investment Firms Aren’t Buying All the Houses. But They Are Buying the Most Important Ones.

The median price of an American house has increased by 28 percent over the last two years, as pandemic-driven demand and long-term demographic changes send buyers into crazed bidding wars


https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.html

[BlueGreenLady]

13. Thanks

I will look a bit more into this. I'm wanting to downsize into a smaller place, but housing prices are out of sight right now.