Russian economy 'won't be as it was,' central banker says

[andricv]

Source: AP

The head of the Russian Central Bank warned Thursday that the country’s economy faces pressure from abroad that could persist indefinitely, dampening hopes that conditions could return to what they were before Russia sent troops into Ukraine.

“It seems to me that it’s obvious to everyone that it won’t be as it was before,” Elvira Nabiullina said at a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual showpiece gathering aimed at investors.

“External conditions have changed for a long time indeed, if not forever,” she said.

Russia was hit by a wide array of sanctions after the start of the Ukraine military operation, including major banks being cut off from the SWIFT international payment system and Western bans on flights. Hundreds of foreign companies have suspended operations in Russia or pulled out entirely.

Read more: https://apnews.com/fa80aa4723bc8ec4e12a5ce559bf0055

[ffr]

1. Not to worry. The US is just one GOP positive election from restoring relations with Russia.

GOP = Russia

[Lonestarblue]

2. The Russian economy is unlikely to tank entirely, but it will not improve until Putin is gone.

With the support of China, some countries in Africa, India, Hungary, and other pro-Russian countries, their economy will survive sanctions. Sanctions will not stop Putin’s war. I see only two ways to stop the war: Ukraine gives up its whole eastern region as well as the entire south with all ports, permanently cutting off their access to the Black Sea, or NATO finally steps in to provide air power to Ukraine and allowing them to force Russian troops back into Russia.

The first option means that Putin becomes stronger, takes a few months to rebuild his army and weaponry, and goes back for the rest of Ukraine within a year, at which point the world is once again facing an illegal war with a stronger Putin.

The second option faces the risk of a nuclear response by Putin. He has used the threat multiple times to bluff the West into not preventing him from doing anything he wants. It’s a calculated risk for NATO to become involved, but one that may be worth taking. By not stopping Putin, the West is signaling to China that it will levy sanctions only but do nothing militarily to stop aggression. I’m sure Taiwan has taken notice. In addition, China now plans to station military troops in countries to “protect” its development. Through its Belt and Road initiative, China has developments in many countries where it can export its authoritarian ways. There’s a reason China is becoming more aggressive—Xi thinks he can get away with it because NATO forces are sitting on the sidelines not helping Ukraine in a way that could end the war.

Economic destruction is another reason to end this war, along with the crisis of food not getting to people who need it. Inflation is increasing around the world, and efforts to curtail it could very well lead to a recession and possibly even a depression as energy supplies and food become scarce. US inflation will likely contribute to Democratic losses in November, and if Republicans control either house of Congress that’s the end of aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the possibility of option 1. The longer this war goes on, the greater the economic risks become—all to appease a petty tyrant who started an unprovoked, illegal war.

So the question becomes which is the greater risk: possible use of a targeted nuclear weapon versus possible worldwide economic meltdown. The first has guaranteed retaliation that Russian officials must consider before launching an attack that could mean serious devastation for Russia. The second affects everyone but perhaps Russia less because they’re already cut off from much of the world.

[GregariousGroundhog]

4. Tanking the Russian economy completely wasn't the goal.

Back in January, Biden stated that the western world would impose "significant costs" on Russia, should they invade. Freezing $300 in Russian reserve currency, prohibiting Russia's import of western technology certain qualifies as significant costs in my book, and causing what will probably be a 10-15% retraction in GDP over the next year or two qualify as significant costs in my book. Some sectors were hit harder than other's, but Russia's aviation and automotive sectors are pretty much crippled by a lack of semiconductors at the moment. Biden's comments about significant cost were not an empty threat.

As to China, a lot of citizens tolerate a lack of civil liberties because of their continually improving living standards. Could China maintain social control absent that? Maybe. Hopefully they never invade Taiwan and force us to find out.

[yaesu]

3. Too bad ruskies, you will forever be a condemned for your dirty deeds, get used to it. nt

[Magoo48]

5. As always, the poor and working class have no say when told it's time to suffer again.

Russia makes the Ukrainian people suffer, the world makes Russian people suffer.

No body gets rich but the world’s arms manufacturers, and their lapdog politicians, and the undertakers.

Oh, I wonder who leads the world in weapons sales?
Market share of the leading exporters of major weapons between 2017 and 2021, by country

Characteristic Share of international arms exports
United States 39%
Russia 19%
France 11%
China 4.6%