Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538

[packman]

Source: Newsweek

For the first time, political polling website FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrats with an edge in the race for the U.S. Senate in November.

The website late on Tuesday showed the Democrats were due to win 51 out of 100 seats, while the Republicans are slated to win 49.

There had been consensus for a long time that the Republicans will win back the Senate this fall, buoyed by high inflation and economic downturn under Democrat Joe Biden's presidency.

...

The website's Senate forecast has changed since it began polling in early June. Back then, the Democrats were only predicted to win 40 seats, with the Republicans winning a comfortable majority of 60. Since then, the Democrats have grown in popularity and now for the first time have overtaken the Republicans, and are on course to keep the Senate.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-favored-win-senate-first-time-538-1728325?piano_t=1

[Marthe48]

1. I hope we get 60 seats

tell mccconnell to shove his fillibuster up his can.

[wryter2000]

4. Don't think that'll happen

But we sure could get 52 and end the filibuster for human rights issues, such as reproductive rights, voting rights, and civil rights including marriage equality.

[Marthe48]

6. I just want manchin to be irrelevant

and I want forward progress on all the things mcconnell keeps blocking. Plus, any of the traitor senators ejected from office and people who will defend the Constitution of the U.S.A. elected to fill their seats.

I don't want much, do I?

[jaxexpat]

12. You want no more than what is prudent.

It's only in these times when we all live beneath the shadow of perpetual and all-pervasive propaganda that reasonability is deemed outrageous and radically extreme.

[Marthe48]

13. Thank you for saying so

I feel validated right now. Thank you.

[OMGWTF]

22. THIS! THIS! THIS!

[AllyCat]

24. Came here to say this!

Last edited Wed Jul 27, 2022, 06:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Manchin and Sinema and their shenanigans that work against what Americans say they want.

[musclecar6]

26. Don't

know what it is with those two. Maybe they are getting paid off to do all the stuff that seems counter to where the Democrats want to go to make substantive changes that will benefit our country. I would say most of the Democrats try to do good with their lives but unfortunately there are always a few out there that are just like the worst car salesman you can imagine. Ya know crooks liars and cheats just like the orange Nazi. Or maybe it’s just ego where they want everybody to kiss their ass and they still won’t do the right thing.

Either way if we don’t get two additional seats in the Senate we’re fucked as far as getting anything done.

[brooklynite]

35. Name 10 Republicans seats you imagine we could win.

[Marthe48]

40. I'd go after the retiring seats, anything leaning Dem

and any tossup. As hard as possible

Races, and Dem candidates:
Kansas (Mark Holland)
KY (Charlie Booker)
LA (Gary Chambers)
Missouri (Lucas Kunce)
North Dakota (Katrina Christiansen)
Ohio (Tim Ryan)
Oklahoma (Kendra Horn)
Penn: (John Fetterman)
Utah: (Evan McMullin) Ind.
Wisconsin: Mandala Barnes

I had to do some homework, and this is a rough list. I included some campaigns where incumbants who are probably invloved with the attempted overthrow of our country have the gall to run for reelection. Not sure I'd vote for a candidate who might be spending time in jail. It Dems GOTV, in spite of the barriers and outright stoppers, we could win many of these seats. Candidates need to talk about abortion bans, taxing the rich, expanding the s.c. moving economic legislation FORWARD. Aside from being crooks, the r's are not leaders, just slugs holding a place for future slugs, to keep obstructing anything that moves the U.S. back to leadership in the world.

Thank you for asking.

[brooklynite]

41. Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, ND, and Oklahoma aren't remotely winnable

McMullen in Utah isn't a safe bet for any Democratic legislation

Missouri will only be a stretch if Greitens is nominated.

[Marthe48]

42. My fantasy Senate

if the r's keep overreaching on limiting personal freedom, anything could be possible.

The frogs might jump out of the heating water :/

[brooklynite]

43. I never mix politics and fantasy....

I do hard, emotionless data analysis to determine what's actually competitive and what is not.

[Marthe48]

44. You are a reliable source of information for me

and many others on DU, probably in your life as well. Thank you!

[wryter2000]

2. How in hell

Did anyone ever think the Rs could win 60 seats? I’ve been thinking we’d pick up seats forever. Look at the morons they’re running.

[JudyM]

15. They have a big edge on us: pointed, potent messaging that's ubiquitous through many channels.

They’re liars and frauds, as well as some morons, but their lying, moronic messaging style and infrastructure excels, sadly enough.

[wryter2000]

17. True, but

There simply aren't 10 Dem Senators who are at any serious risk. People may be mad at Biden or Dems in general, but that doesn't mean they hate their incumbent Senator. If you look at the list of Dem Senators running, I don't see how you could pick 10 who would lose.

[JudyM]

23. Right, I agree.

We could probably pick up more seats if we upped our messaging game… it has to cut through their BS.

[DemocracyWins202]

3. It's still a toss up but our chances have improved since the model was released.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. Not enough seats

We need to neuter/neutralize Manchin and Sinema.

[LiberalFighter]

7. Need to have at least 52 seats.

[geardaddy]

8. I haven't trusted 538 ever since 2016.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. 538 actually had the most accurate prediction on the 2016 election

They gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning the weekend before the election.

Everybody else had 90+% chance of HRC winning.

[ColinC]

9. The projection is actually that there is a 51% chance,

and the projected outcome is a 50/50 Senate with Dems losing GA and picking up PA.

[Wednesdays]

38. Dems losing GA?

If Walker is to win the senate seat, he's got a huge hill to climb. He's polling at 39%.

[ColinC]

39. Still this is Georgia we are talking about.

Warnock had a perfect storm last election that got him in. As an incumbent democrat in Georgia, his chances are only slightly better than they were last time

[LiberalFighter]

10. To be clear the Democrats would not win even 40 seats or the Republicans 60 seats.

Just not possible. Only 1/3 of the seats are up for election each time. It would normally be 34 seats for 2022 not including special elections. Otherwise, there would be 33 seats up for election.

[whopis01]

20. It looks like the article was poorly written and later corrected.

The fivethirtyeight page showed a 40% chance of the Democrats winning and a 60% chance of the Republicans winning back on June 9th.

The article now correctly states that instead of saying it was 40 seats and 60 seats. My guess is that they corrected it after the OP grabbed the quote from the article.

[LiberalFighter]

27. By a political novice?

[whopis01]

30. So it would appear. n/t

[MichMan]

11. Where are all the posters who claim the pollsters all lie?

[Ace Rothstein]

16. They only say that when they don't like what the pollster is saying.

[wryter2000]

18. There's one in this thread.

Doesn't trust 538.

[Old Crank]

14. We still have to

Get our asses out and vote. Get people we know out to the polls.
Help people who can't get to the polls ballots and then turned in.

[whopis01]

19. The 40 / 60 numbers are chances of winning control, not the number of seats.

Assuming that you copied that last paragraph direct from the article, it looks like they have corrected the article now.

It now correctly reads:

"the Democrats were only predicted to have a 40 percent chance to keeping the Senate, with the Republicans 60 percent chance of taking it."

instead of

"the Democrats were only predicted to win 40 seats, with the Republicans winning a comfortable majority of 60."

[JohnSJ]

21. Only if people GOTV

[ColinC]

29. Emphasis on this

The title of the article and article itself are wrong and misleading. Dems are not even favored to win the Senate. There is slightly more than a 50% chance they will hold at least 50 seats. The projection is they gain PA and lose GA right now (both with barely a 51% chance of the projected outcome)

[Chicago1980]

25. Doesn't matter if Democrats lose the house.

If we want anything accomplished over the next two years, we need at least two more senators AND retain the house.

[Going to Canada]

28. I have heard we can get eight new seats!

8 new seats! Does anyone have a list at the tip of their fingers? I will look for the information.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. No chance at flipping 8 seats- 4 max.

WI, OH, PA, and maybe FL, but that’s a long shot.

And we have close races to keep seats in NV, NH, AZ and GA.

[ananda]

31. Please let it happen!

!!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. The GOP was NEVER going to get 60 seats. Nt

[Indykatie]

36. How the F**k Did 538 Ever Think GOP Would Win 60 Senate Seats?

That projection was batsh*t crazy even with the economy, gas and inflation issues. I think Dems at a minimum will hold all their current Senate seats and flip PA and OH. Fetterman and Ryan are perfect candidates for their states. Vance and Oz have helped by being sh*tty candidates and running awful campaigns.

[RussBLib]

37. even more good news

I think the J6 Committee is having an effect, and I love the way the J6 people are continuing to release a stream of new info during their "quiet" period until the next hearings in September. Keep it in the news. Drip, drip. Who needs another hearing?

The GOP are EXTREMISTS! is a good, winning message. Still plenty of time to expose these fascists.

[Yavin4]

45. I no longer put any faith in political polls.

They are meant to drive up fundraising. That's all. You can make a poll have any result that you want. The problem with them is that it's impossible to model turnout on election day. So, there will always be a bit of a disconnect between a poll and election day results.