Russian administrators leave second city of Ukraine's Kherson region
Source: Reuters
Nov 15 (Reuters) - Civil servants working for the Russian-installed administration in Nova Kakhovka, the second-largest city in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, have left along with thousands of residents due to fighting, officials said on Tuesday.
The city lies on the east bank of the Dnipro river, next to the huge Kakhovka dam, which both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling. It also adjoins the town of Tavriisk at the mouth of the North Crimean Canal, a crucial source of fresh water to the arid Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.
--snip--
Russia has already asked civilians to leave areas of Kherson province within 15 km (nine miles) of the Dnipro's eastern bank, and says its forces have taken up defensive positions on that side of the river.
Images published on social media on Tuesday appeared to show Russian troops had left the town of Oleshky, directly across the Dnipro from the city of Kherson, suggesting that one of the war's biggest retreats may not have ended at the water's edge.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-installed-civil-servants-leave-nova-kakhovka-ukraines-kherson-region-2022-11-15/
Looks like Russia is not stopping its retreat at the left bank of the Dnipro River, and plans to continue their pull-back further east and south. Both Oleshki and Nova Kakhovka are extremely valuable strategic locations, each situated on the Russian side of the river aalong the only two bridges across it. Russia's apparent intention to abandon both looks like a desperate move on their part. I can't think of anything that would prompt this move, so I suspect there is something going on behind the scenes, and we may hear more good news from Ukraine's Southern front.
niyad
(113,263 posts)Botany
(70,491 posts)This is really big and tells me that the Russians might be falling back through out the
Kherson Oblast. Their days having forces on the ground in Ukraine including Crimea
might be coming to the end.
OnlinePoker
(5,719 posts)The only thing that concerns me with this is if the Ukrainians move across the river into the low lying area on the other side, Russia blows the dam and drowns them all. I wouldn't put it past the Russians to have submersibles laden with high explosives just waiting for that opportunity.
Botany
(70,491 posts)... to be past the flood plain of the river in case the dam is blown and I think the Ukrainians and their allies
already also have some bridges in the city of Kherson too. I could see the Ukrainian troops crossing @
the city of Kherson and then working their way to link up with the forces that are now on the east side of
the river via crossing at the dam area.
I might be wrong but I think a lot of Russian troops are going to be trapped very soon.
Especially if the U.A. forces push through to take back Maripol and then they would have
lots of Russians trapped between their forces on 3 sides and sea.
I saw something that the Russian military was limiting the amount of ammunition that they were giving to
the Russian troops especially the conscripts because they liked to use it to shoot their senior officers.
FYI these are tough people.
Link to tweet
onetexan
(13,036 posts)Beastly Boy
(9,312 posts)If Russians blow up the dam before then, it will be the Russians drowning.
Quakerfriend
(5,450 posts)I dont think the Russians expected the UA to cross the Dnipro so quickly- social media videos show them crossing at dawn but, this has not yet been confirmed by the Ukrainian govt.
herding cats
(19,564 posts)They're extremely organized and not letting up in the least!
IronLionZion
(45,429 posts)Russia has been shelling it but it's still holding for now.
Beastly Boy
(9,312 posts)It's the only fresh water source for the whole of Crimean peninsula. Also, if the dam bursts, it will mostly flood their side of the river. They will not even have the time to steal ambulances and toilets from the civilians as they abandon the area.
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)is if the Ukrainian's are on the verge of recapturing Crimea.
On the other hand, that canal is an ace in the hole for Ukraine in any negotiations.
As in, leave the rest of Ukraine, and we will turn the water back on.
blue-wave
(4,352 posts)I read unconfirmed reports the other day that Ukrainian special forces crossed the Dnipro and are in control of the Kinburn Spit. If so, the Russians might be concerned about encirclement. Slava Ukraini!! Heroyam Slava!!
oldsoftie
(12,531 posts)Then again, they may all run away if told to go there
Kennah
(14,256 posts)Martin68
(22,791 posts)Russian currency and installing Russian administrators crumbles.
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown. Of the water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, while water for drinking and other public uses made up 18%.[1]
. . .
According to official Russian statistics, the Crimean agricultural industry fully overcame the consequences of the blocking the North Crimean Canal and crop yields grew by a factor of 1.5 from 2013 by 2016.[9] The reported rapid growth in agricultural production in Crimea is due to the fact that, with the help of subsidies in the order of 23 billion rubles a year from the budget of the Russian Federation, agricultural producers in Crimea were able to increase their fleet of agricultural machinery.[10][11][12]
These official statistics contrast with reports of a massive shrinkage in the area under cultivation in Crimea, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017,[13] and an empty canal and a nearly dry reservoir resulting in widespread water shortages,[14][15][6] with water only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021.[15] That same year, the New York Times cited senior American officials as stating that securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia into Ukraine.[16][6]
On 24 February 2022, the first day of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops advancing from Crimea established control over the North Crimean Canal.[17] The Head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, told local authorities to prepare the canal to receive water from the Dnieper river and resume the supply of water.[18][19] Two days later, Russian forces used explosives to destroy the dam that had been blocking the flow since 2014, and water supply resumed.[20][1]
Beastly Boy
(9,312 posts)It is the key to Crimea, and it flows from the dam near the city the Russians are apparently getting ready to abandon.
Russia is in a lose-lose situation here. If they blow up the dam, Crimea loses, and if they don't, Ukraine wins.
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)As a Civil Engineer, when your post noted it supplied water to Crimea, I had to take a look.
Kinda like a Soviet version of the Colorado-Big Thompson project. Carries water all the way out onto the Kerch peninsula.
Appears that Crimea, as an economic asset, is worth a lot less without the water it supplies.
Igel
(35,300 posts)It's well within range of standard artillery, and the city could be shelled heavily and repeatedly, esp. if the military has an active and non-trivial presence.
Since the Russian military seems to like to billet their troops in private residences, that "non-trivial presence" can be taken as a given.
Word was weeks ago that the Kherson admin had moved to some berg between Kherson and the Crimea.
Beastly Boy
(9,312 posts)First, Russia's administrative apparatus was evacuated. Then the civilians. This was followed by the Russian army leaving the city. As of today, the latter hasn't happened in Nova Kakhovka, but your arguments have merit. The reason I believe the Kherson scenario is likely to be duplicated in Nova Kakhovka is because it already happened in Oleshky, in the vicinity of the Antonivka Bridge. No Russian troops there. This doesn't inspire my confidencce in the Russian troops holding onto Nova Kakhovka.