Explosion at Nuclear Airbase Just 150 Miles From Moscow Opens Stunning New Phase of War
Source: Daily Beast
Deadly explosions rocked two bases deep inside Russia in a blistering new setback for Putin, who is already sustaining huge losses on Ukrainian territory.
Two explosions at major Russian military bases, including the Dyagilevo base near Ryazan just 150 miles from Moscow, mean the war in Ukraine has come right to Vladimir Putin’s doorstep.
The explosions—which may have been missile or drone strikes but that has yet to be confirmed—suggest that whoever is behind them wanted to strike fear right in the heart of Russia.
The second explosion struck the Engels-2 base, from which Tu-95 bombers have been pummeling Ukraine’s infrastructure over the last month.
A fuel truck explosion at the base near Ryazan killed at least three and wounded half a dozen and reportedly damaged Tu-95 bombers and Tu-22M long-range missile bombers, which have nuclear capability.
Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war
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Historic NY
(40,037 posts)
Ray Bruns
(6,362 posts)
ancianita
(43,307 posts)Russian media reports and video posted to social media indicated that an explosion occurred early on Monday morning at the Engels-2 airbase in Russia’s Saratov region, which hosts Tu-95 bombers that have taken part in cruise missile strikes against Ukraine...
Another explosion took place at the Dyagilevo military airbase near Ryazan, a city less than 150 miles from Moscow. Three people were killed and five wounded after a fuel truck exploded, Russian state media reported. That base also hosts Tu-95 long-range bombers.
Soon after the blasts at the airbases, Russia launched a long anticipated mass strike against Ukraine, involving air-and sea-launched missiles from the Black and Caspian Seas.
Ukraine claimed to have shot down 60 of a total of 70 incoming missiles, a new record in the effectiveness of its air defence systems. The Russian defence ministry claimed to have hit 17 targets.
In Kyiv, air raid sirens sounded, and people took shelter in underground metro stations, but no missiles hit the capital, and after three hours the all clear was sounded. The strikes plunged some parts of the country into blackout at a time when temperatures are well below zero, but they appeared to have been significantly less successful is disrupting the Ukrainian power grid than the previous Russian mass missile attack on 23 November....
mpcamb
(3,228 posts)Could be angry conscripts, intrenched anti-Putin forces within
or an excuse to enlarge the war on Putin's part.
machoneman
(4,128 posts)mpcamb
(3,228 posts)into Black Sea ports under Ukrainian control.
Make sure the support is overpowering.
There would be cheers heard round the world.
Yeah, it's a risk, but the timing is great.
Russia in disarray, Ukraine facing a bitter winter,
Democratic movements on the rise around the world.
Ford_Prefect
(8,610 posts)posted on MSN. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-nuclear-bomber-planes-damaged-in-successful-drone-attack/ar-AA14UUgJ
Gergana Krasteva 5 hrs ago
Footage has emerged appearing to show the moment an explosion damaged two nuclear bomber jets in Russia.
The Engels-2 airbase, near the city of Saratov, which is used to prepare attacks on Ukraine, is believed to have been hit by drones.
Videos circulating online show a huge flash at the high-security airbase used by Vladimir Putin’s strategic fleet.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)Ford_Prefect
(8,610 posts)I suppose it could be anti-war actions by anti-Putin Russians, although it seems a bit unlikely.
It could be some kind of false-flag operation by Putin's trolls to justify the missile attacks on Ukraine. I have some doubts about that but they have done it before.
It is possible that some kind of Ukrainian drone operation caused the explosions. It would make sense that way. However most of the drones operated by Ukraine are relatively short range units.
There is another way Ukraine could have achieved this if the drones were flown from inside Russia:
Ukraine is not known to have any loitering munitions that would allow it to attack hundreds of miles beyond the frontlines of the conflict, although there have been reports of such unmanned aerial vehicles under development.
As the two military installations were between 300 and 450 miles from the Ukrainian border, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said drones may have been launched by Ukraine from within Russian territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/explosions-russia-airbases-far-from-ukraine-frontline-bombers
Who knows?
ancianita
(43,307 posts)When the fog of war clears we'll find out what happened. But Ukraine retaliation for Russia downing its electrical grid sounds plausible, for now. We've not paid close attention for a while now, and a lot could have been shipped over there from the EU or elsewhere. Just sayin'.
Ford_Prefect
(8,610 posts)near the border attacking sites of Russian troop and equipment staging, ammunition and fuel depots.
The bases attacked are 300 and 400 miles inside Russia. They are well established military sites in areas aware of that situation. I would think that even skilled operators would have a hard time getting close enough to fly a drone weapon into them without being spotted while doing it, especially when launching.
However I'm not military myself and don't have any idea beyond a few news reels what it would take to pull this off nor how it could be disguised in the field.
This is a real war with people on both sides able and willing to do whatever it takes. I'm sitting in my living room on my laptop attempting to reason out how and what happened. Anything I say is just my best guess based on bits of information and commentary I've read by others more informed than I.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)terrible psychological cost and literal hardship on civilian Ukrainians by allowing Russia to continue war crimes AND a war of attrition.
Just how much do we allow for Ukrainian suffering. That shouldn't be even part of our support equation, but it looks like it is more and more.
Kennah
(14,578 posts)But from what I've read, being sneaky is one of the most valuable skills that SpecOps engage in. Tough, macho, shoot well, yes. But if you can get in and get out without anyone seeing you, that's Gold. Navy SEALs are the stereotypical badasses, but this is something SEALs on YouTube have touted. Sneaky, undetected, in and out.
DENVERPOPS
(13,003 posts)"It could be some kind of false-flag operation by Putin's trolls to justify the missile attacks on Ukraine. I have some doubts about that but they have done it before".
This "attack" could well be a phony move to be a false flag operation. It would make it appear to his people that they are under attack and Putin would then get his people to back him. Also it would give him an excellent reason for increased attacks on Ukraine. If nothing else, he wants to destroy Ukraine to the point they cannot financially afford to rebuild.....and to make the hardships unbearable for every citizen in Ukraine...........
We have been informed that before Biden gave Ukraine missiles they were reprogrammed so as to not be able to be used to assault Russia, only areas of the Ukraine......The use of drones, I have no idea about......
This escalation of this conflict is extremely disturbing to say the least. I feel that once again, a conflict between Russia vs. U.S. is taking place on another country's soil........This conflict is soooo screwed up. I don't fear the U.S. using nuclear weapons, (except in retaliation) but I seriously worry about Putin. He is full of anger and hostility that he has been harboring since the Cold War ended. With any luck at all he and his Russian Military Buddies will be removed before he goes over the edge.......Putin's threat is nuclear weapons, you can bet if he didn't have them this conflict would have ended a year ago, or may not even have been attempted by Putin.....
As with much of what is happening today, I also feel that the people of the U.S. have little knowledge of what we or NATO are doing in the shadows. Be thankful Trump is no longer in charge, he would have not allowed any weapons from being sent to help Ukraine OR NATO, in order to be praised by his Most Bestest Buddy, Putin......
Ford_Prefect
(8,610 posts)It has been said that the HIMARS systems were programmed NOT to allow attacks inside Russia's borders.
The Ukraine has weapons and aircraft manufacturing capabilities. I don't know how much adapting a third party drone would need to do this job nor how well it could cover the distances without detection.
The large Reaper drones the US military uses are capable of cruising at 194 mph, and a 1200 mile round trip. I think something with less than half that capacity could have done the job flying from Ukraine but I'm only speculating on performance. I have no idea how difficult it would be to fly it through Russian airspace and accurately hit a target.
Mister Ed
(6,927 posts)... instead of valuable military assets. That would infuriate and inflame the Russian public.
DENVERPOPS
(13,003 posts)excellent point........(You were correct!)
I am sure that Putin would love to destroy what remains of his decades old, obsolete war crap. It would help him explain to his people why there are no newer conventional weapons and equipment. Money not spent that was grifted and given to Putin, His Politicians, and Oligarchs....rather than being spent on the military as Putin was probably claiming.......
************************************
Edit: just posted on DU:
Ukraine Pulled Ex-Soviet Recon Drones Out Of Storage, Added Bombs And Sent Them Toward Russia
Source: Forbes
The drones that Ukrainian forces used to strike two Russian bomber bases 300 miles inside Russia on Monday weren’t the satellite-controlled, missile-armed Bayraktar TB-2s that Ukraine acquired from Turkey.
No, they reportedly were Tupolev Tu-141s, ex-Soviet antiques that last saw front-line use in the 1980s, flying photo-reconnaissance missions for the Soviet air force.
As developments of the first-generation recon drones that the U.S. Air Force deployed in the Vietnam War, the jet-propelled Tu-141 wasn’t very sophisticated by 1980s standards. It’s even less sophisticated today.
But it’s simple, speedy and big enough to haul a warhead weighing hundreds of pounds, making it much more powerful than a TB-2 with its 49-pound missiles. The Tu-141 works. So it should come as no surprise that the Ukrainians are sending their Tu-141s on one-way missions to blow up Russian bombers.
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/05/ukraine-pulled-ex-soviet-recon-drones-out-of-storage-added-bombs-and-sent-them-hurtling-toward-russia/?sh=2e6b7d2a3348
Wicked repurposing by Ukraine.
And pathetic that Soviet era antiques aren't being stopped by Russian air defenses.
brush
(61,033 posts)standing with the Russian people, and even more importantly with the other Kremlin bigs who might begin to plan a weakened Putin's ouster and the end of the war.
I mean if operatives can pull off successful operations that close to Moscow and the Kremlin, and in addition just a few months ago Dugin's daughter was killed in Moscow by a car bomb...probably meant for Dugin, a close Putin associate (he switched cars with his daughter at the last minute), what's next?
It's a daring risk that risks an escalation of the war. Are the Ukrainians trying to achieve that, make the West do more?
jaxexpat
(7,794 posts)I'm thinking at this point the Ukrainians are not too concerned with escalating the war. I think they were trying to stop the bombers who lately have taken to escalated bombing of their cities. I expect them to do this as often as they can.
Perhaps they're not amenable to the approach forced onto Spanish Republicans during their late 30's civil war. They just got bombed by superior forces and lacking aid from their fellow Europeans, they were forced to give up.
brush
(61,033 posts)will immediately be tightened on all military installations to prevent any more attacks.
Methinks they're going for psychological terror of the Russian people...and a goading of the West to do more to help with winter coming and the continued brutality of the Russian bombings of power and heat installations.
Ukrainians are suffering immeasurably.
jaxexpat
(7,794 posts)The Ukranian military is doing everything they can to cause the Russians to cease their invasion(s). Meanwhile the west is cautiously optimistic Russia will not succeed in starving and freezing NATO members in the coming winter. That's a tremendously destabilizing factor in this, the 21st century version of the "Great Game".
The Ukrainians will continue to suffer, as you say, immeasurably while western armies desperately and stealthily seek means to defeat Russia's nuclear strike capability. A nation of Russian speaking, citizen/military personnel conveniently located and highly motivated is, perhaps, an opportunity too good for western strategic planners and schemers to pass up. Could be that critical entity, the element that could change the balance of the MAD scenario, is being tested or even implemented as we speculate. These are tense times. It may not be a coincidence that a top-level Ukrainian language speaking American, Whitehouse based, military intelligence officer was exposed to the world in Trump's first impeachment hearing. He's reassigned himself to retirement since then, I think. His twin still serves. There's a hell-uv-a story there, folks.
Putin has successfully brought personnel in the government of the US into his suzerainty. There are probably "Putinic" moles in every European government as well. More lays on Joe's plate than most realize and even more would be comfortable knowing.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)origin.
Bucky
(55,334 posts)1st, I expect Ukrainians are too smart than to attack Russia on its own soil, especially if that far away from the war zone.
2nd, I seriously doubt Ukraine has the tactical capability to hit anything in the Moscow area. Dugan's daughter was almost certainly killed by one of the feuding Russian extremist factions, despite her own rightwing politics, not by any pro Ukrainian group.
3rd, you may not be aware of it, but you don't want the violence brought home to Russia. Anything that would reinforce and harden the Russian Nationalist factions is a bad thing. The best hope for a free Ukraine is for the growing Russian anger to be focused on Putin in his generals' ineptitude, not there Ukrainian victims we've already been thoroughly vilified in Russian media.
Like, imagine if in the middle of the US-Vietnam War, the Viet Cong were able to bomb the San Diego shipyards. That would have massively undermined the anti-war the sentiment that ultimately allowed Vietnam to win the conflict.
One of the ugly realities of this conflict is that, as much as we all want Russia to lose. It would be very much against international interests for Russia be so devastated in its loss that were to start falling apart as a nation state. Russia today is far more like Yugoslavia was in 1992 then it is like the Soviet Union in 1991. If Russia becomes perceived as a weakening state, the whole of northern and central Asia could degenerate into a dozen regional ethnic conflicts.
Just like George HW Bush was wise not to drive into Baghdad after Gulf War 1, it's very much in US and Western interests for Russia remain a cohesive entity that's threatening to its dominated neighbors. As bad and vindictive as the Russians are, any other regional power asserting control over that area--whether Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, India, or China would probably be worse and could potentially trigger a 21st century Great Game struggle for dominance, only with loose nukes mixed into the prizes being sought.
Evolve Dammit
(21,774 posts)Jack from Charlotte
(2,372 posts)*
Mister Ed
(6,927 posts)Clearly, the purpose of the strike was not "to strike fear right in the heart of Russia." The purpose was to destroy at least a few of the planes that have been used to mercilessly pummel Ukrainian civilians with missile strikes.
Fully legal military target. Tu-95s that have been attacking Ukraine.
Light them up.
brush
(61,033 posts)Security will be tightened immediately to stop more attacks.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 5, 2022, 03:18 PM - Edit history (1)
It's certainly a fair target. But it also sends a message to civilians and elites supporting Putin that they are not safe from the war.
Mister Ed
(6,927 posts)The Ukrainian military has (for now) confined itself to targeting only the actual planes and bases that have been raining down destruction on Ukrainian civilians. But, just as you say, they are also demonstrating to Russian civilians and leaders that they are not immune to attack.
PSPS
(15,321 posts)LudwigPastorius
(14,724 posts)
NJCher
(43,164 posts)of the war in Ukraine, supposedly in the Donbas, which he considers occupied by his forces.
Maybe this drone strike is a hint: if Ukraine can strike like this, why not when he's visiting the so-called "frontline."
Note: this visit was announced yesterday and the following observation is from a former CIA chief in Russia:
"I don't think it is an indication of his security, I think it is an indication of his really strong desire to show Russians that this is part of Russia.
"Remember, he told Russians that he had annexed this part of Ukraine but he does not really control the annexed territories."
Lithos
(26,638 posts)They just announced the rollout of a new kamikaze drone having a 75kg bomb payload and a range of 1000 km. This airbase is easily within reach - so is Putin's Dacha
momta
(4,197 posts)This is at the very end of the story. Great quote.
Escurumbele
(4,094 posts)Of course, there is always the possibility that Putin maybe doing it to his own country to try to rally up people into signing up for the invasion...Hitler did the same and crazy dictators who have no sense of consequences do it all the time.
mahina
(20,645 posts)rogue parties in Russia getting their hands on nuclear material.
I’m sure this scenario was in the professional Peoples possible outcomes here but it never occurred to me that we have to worry about the actual head of state of Russia selling off nuclear material before.
llashram
(6,269 posts)throw in China's hegemonic desires that include most of the world and all hell is going to break out.
70sEraVet
(5,482 posts)
Shermann
(9,062 posts)Slava Ukraini!! Heroyam Slava!!
Kennah
(14,578 posts)Being sneaky is perhaps the highest value in Special Ops.
Dorn
(562 posts)Nuclear weapons should have 'fail safe' devices to prevent a nuclear explosion if the conventional HE explodes. The U.S. has had accidents (aka "Broken Arrows"
where 3 of 4 fail safe devices failed and a nuclear detonation was avoided by the narrowest of margins. I recall one broken arrow in North Carolina.
Given the quality of Russian weapons this event scares the shit out of me.
LaMouffette
(2,640 posts)From the website "Military.com":
https://www.military.com/history/russias-dead-hand-soviet-built-nuclear-doomsday-device.html
In a crisis that might mean a first strike from the United States, high-ranking government officials or military commanders could activate the Perimeter. Perimeter would guarantee that the Soviet Union (and now, Russia) could respond even if its entire armed forces were wiped out.
Once switched on, the Perimeter system can launch the entire Russian nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack. It was part of the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction, a means of deterring nuclear attacks by ensuring the side who initiated a first strike also would be annihilated.
As you say, given the quality of Russian weapons, what if their Perimeter system, instead of getting switched on by a government or military official, was triggered by a strike close to one of their nuclear bases?
As Danielle Ellsburg says in his book The Doomsday Machine, the human species is not to be trusted with nuclear weapons.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)Especially not in middle of two nation war, bordering each other, where one side has sensibly no Weapons of Earth Destruction. WEDs.
LaMouffette
(2,640 posts)
Warpy
(114,615 posts)The ones still in use have been modified to carry cruise missiles, not drop old fashioned carpet bombs. They're relatively low and slow and too easy to shoot down. The article seemed to be clear as mud on this account.
The fuel truck explosion could have been accidental, poor maintenance strikes again, small leaks creating a cloud of fumes waiting for a spark and could have been part of the disastrous outbreak of careless smoking.
Or this could be sabotage by the Russians, themselves, military guys who want the war to end so they don't have to die in it.
I don't think Ukraine has missiles that could possibly make it to a base outside Moscow. The base outside Rostov, yes. Moscow, no.
BidenRocks
(3,266 posts)Please explain the B 21.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)The military explanation for more and more amd more expensive weapons always fails the logic board test.
Why needed, come again? What few ask!
Missiles.
Going deep into enemy territory to drop a load of bombs is no longer viable. They are too vulnerable.
Besides, the Pentagon is not well known for restricting their spending on useless systems and redundant hardware. It's how corrupt Congressmen "bring home the bacon" by awarding fat military contracts for unnecessary and obsolete crap.
EX500rider
(12,583 posts)Networked stealth bombers not so much.
Tu-95 Bear:
B-21
Kennah
(14,578 posts)
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)My first thought
Warpy
(114,615 posts)Some have been deep in Siberia, out of range of anything the US, Turkey, or Australia has produced and WAY out of range of Ukraine.
While it's not completely inconceivable that Ukrainian special ops forces are busy within Russia, it's unlikely. They're needed at home.
republianmushroom
(22,325 posts)orthoclad
(4,728 posts)to justify escalation or atrocities. Like the deadly apartment bombing which justified the Chechen war.
I think Ukraine action is more likely, but this possibility must be considered.
When nukes are involved, deliberation and caution is necessary.
John1956PA
(4,964 posts)orthoclad
(4,728 posts)Or is it limited to sacrificable elements?
Fog of war.
Kennah
(14,578 posts)orthoclad
(4,728 posts)Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)would be toast. Does Not compute at all.
XorXor
(690 posts)Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)Kraken lawsuit level stuff.
orthoclad
(4,728 posts)in bombings of apartment buildings in 1999. This lead to the Second Chechen War.
There are suspicions that Putin arranged these bombings in order to solidify his power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory
Not proven. But he's obviously willing to commit atrocities.
Ukraine action is more likely, I think, but we can't rule this out, in light of his objective and suspected history. In the fog of war, all probabilities should be considered.
XorXor
(690 posts)If Putin/Russia wanted to and COULD escalate then they'd do so without a creating a false flag justification.
orthoclad
(4,728 posts)XorXor
(690 posts)if not hundreds of thousand of Ukrainians. They don't need justification to commit atrocities. I just find it hard to imagine a situation where Russia benefits from using using nuclear weapons. I totally understand how they benefit from making everyone think they will use them if they don't get their way. I've even found myself falling for their narrative when I expressed concerned that Putin may freak out after Ukraine made those huge advances recently. But I realized that only plays into their hand. If they use nuclear weapons then they will lose any support they currently have. They barely even have China's support right now. I would imagine in that situation China would be far more likely to stop buying Russian oil/gas even with the huge discount Russia is selling it.
I suppose Russia could use some smaller tactical nukes on some military formations, but what is the real gain for them? It's obvious the Ukrainians have no intentions on surrendering. That will only serve to strengthen their resolve, bring in more assistance, and alienate Russia even further. And for what? Destroy and irradiate territory they claim is Russia just to take out couple thousand Ukrainian soldiers and civilians who happen to be in the area? I dunno, I'm not buying Russia "we soooo crazy" act.
orthoclad
(4,728 posts)Effete Snob
(8,387 posts)It is shocking how careless they are with smoking.
Raster
(21,010 posts)...oh wait... again!
Kennah
(14,578 posts)XorXor
(690 posts)
cstanleytech
(28,471 posts)and not a war of defense against the Ukraine as this is a war the Russians started.
FakeNoose
(41,631 posts)