Inflation cooled to 5% in March, but consumer pain is set to linger

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Wed Apr 12, 2023, 07:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: NBC News

Consumer prices climbed 5% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, down from 6% in February.

The latest inflation reading represents the ninth-straight month of easing price growth on an annual basis, and is down from a 9% high last June. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.1% — the lowest reading since last July.

But it's still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Among the key categories still seeing outsized price growth are food, which climbed 8.5% from March 2022 to March 2023, and rent, which hit 8.3% growth, its largest-ever 12-month increase.

As a result, cooling inflation won't prove much solace to consumers, who can still expect to feel the pinch in their pocketbooks for a while longer.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-rate-march-2023-is-it-better-or-worse-economy-rcna79150

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From the source -

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CPI for all items rises 0.1% in March as shelter increases https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
#CPI #BLSdata
8:31 AM · Apr 12, 2023

Article updated.

Previous article -

Consumer prices climbed 5% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, down from a 6% rate in February. The latest inflation reading represents the ninth-straight month of easing price growth, and is down from a 9% high last June.

But it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Among the key categories still seeing outsized price growth are food, which climbed 8.5% in March; and rent, which hit 8.3% growth, its largest-ever 12-month increase.

As a result, cooling inflation won't prove much solace to consumers, who can still expect to feel the pinch in their pocketbooks for a while longer.

Because inflation numbers are closely tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions about how high interest rates should be, a majority of investors are betting the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% again at its next meeting May 3.

Previous headline -

Price growth cooled to 5% in February, but consumer pain is set to linger

Original article -

Consumer prices climbed 5% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, down from a 6% rate in February.

The cooling inflation won't prove much solace to consumers, who can still expect to feel the pinch in their pocketbooks for a while longer.

The BLS reported last month that the consumer price index had climbed 6% year on year in February -- down from the 9% high last June but still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Because inflation numbers are closely tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions about how high interest rates should be, a majority of investors are betting the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% again at its next meeting May 3.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Great trend.

Below expectations. Hope it can make the Fed pause rate hikes for a month. But we’ve gone from 9.3% to 5.0% in 9 months. Should be pushing 2% by year’s end.

[IronLionZion]

2. The Fed forecasts just one more rate hike this year

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/the-fed-projections-call-for-just-one-more-rate-hike-this-year.html

One good thing about the Fed is they announce their plans and moves well in advance.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Read that

Would be great if they just stopped.

Here’s the great thing, we now have tools to fight any recession that results to make it very shallow. 6 months from now if we’re at 3% inflation and falling but the economy is faltering the Fed could ease monetary policy to fight a recession. Longer term they can start to lower rates again too.

Politically, we’re taking our medicine in 2023, so things can look great in 2024. Inflation might not even be a topic for 2024. If the economy is back growing and UE reskins low Biden will be running for re-election on a very strong economy.

[progree]

3. Links to data series with graphs. Note: the *CORE* CPI is +0.4% in March

Last edited Wed Apr 12, 2023, 11:06 AM - Edit history (2)

(it's a 4.7% annualized rate when calculated with the actual index values) and its rolling 3 month average is 5.1% annualized. This 3 month average was 5.2% annualized in February. So RECENT CORE inflation still seems stuck at around 5%. (Reminder: the Fed uses core measures to predict future inflation, whether we like it or not, although specifically they target the core PCE, not the core CPI https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143053501#post5 )



CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

CPI time series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
    Monthly increases: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth

CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
    Monthly increases: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2

Core CPI excluding shelter - I sure would like this time series, but apparently I haven't found one yet. It's said to be a Fed favorite.

Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) CUUR0000SEHA

SA is seasonally adjusted. NSA is Not seasonally adjusted

Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

In all of the BLS ones, one can change/add 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month and 12 month rolling averages by clicking "More Formatting Options" at the top right and checking the appropriate check boxes

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Felt when you started up the machinery

Meanwhile I had to bow to Rube Goldberg to get a quick article up that wasn't a "live update" -

[progree]

6. Oh, ha ha. I don't think I've ever had a reply like that before, but I'll check my notes 🙃

[BumRushDaShow]

7. See... I know stuff like this is being generated

[progree]

8. I just did an update of the CPI / CORE CPI bar chart in #3 above (March thru March) 😊

[BumRushDaShow]

9. I knew it!

The machinery is "well oiled".

[andym]

14. Chart shows little change in the pattern since October

probably because the economy hasn't slowed enough to quell demand according to the Fed's working theory. March looks like December.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Perfect storm for 2024

Inflation will not be a story in 2024. Any mild recession will be in the rear view mirror. UE will remain near historic lows. With any luck Ukraine will win their war. Republicans will continue their extremist pushes in the states. Trump will win the GOP nomination despite being criminally indicted in several courts.

The GOP will run against Biden in 2024 on one and only one thing, Biden's age. That's all they'll have while they run their own 78 year old candidate who will spend a lot of his time in court.

[The Mouth]

11. Inflation is the cruelest tax of all

IT hits the poor harder than the middle class and the middle class harder than it does the rich.

It's fine if you have investments that rise with it, or a job that the income goes up, it's a big giant 'Fuck You' to anyone on a fixed income from the assholes who consider anything above 1% or 2% acceptable in any way, shape, or form or for any reason.

If you aren't STRONGLY anti-inflation, you are anti poor and fixed income, no matter your other positions. There are no excuses or justifications.

[NullTuples]

12. Such polite wording for, "corporations are going to continue price gouging because they can"

[Bengus81]

13. True...prices have fallen here and there but are still sky high

on food and fuel. Hell,gas is once again jumping upward 20 cents or more.

Not one fucking thing to do with "supply issues" or the War in Ukraine. It's just unbridled GREED of corporations--especially in the food sector.

Notice how egg prices dropped like a rock when the mere mention of a investigation was talked over?

[Skittles]

15. I don't know of ANYTHING that went up by just 5%

SKY HIGH increases