Job growth totals 253,000 in April, beating expectations even as the U.S. economy slows

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Fri May 5, 2023, 09:56 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Job growth fared better than expected in April despite bank turmoil and a decelerating economy, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for the month, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969. A more encompassing number that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.6%.

Average hourly earnings, a key inflation barometer, rose 0.5% for the month, more than the 0.3% estimate and the biggest monthly gain in a year. On an annual basis, wages increased 4.4%, higher than the expectation for a 4.2% gain. Both numbers raise the chances that the Federal Reserve could decide to raise interest rates again in June, though markets were only pricing in a small probability following the jobs report.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/05/jobs-report-april-2023-job-growth-totals-25300-in-april.html

---

From the source -

Link to tweet

BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
Payroll employment rises by 253,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 3.4% https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
#JobsReport #BLSdata
8:30 AM · May 5, 2023

LOL (big swing and a miss compared to expectations )

Good Friday morning and please stay tuned for DU's economy watchers and their deep dives into the data.

Article updated.

Previous articles -

Job growth fared better than expected in April despite bank turmoil and a decelerating economy, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for the month, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969. A more encompassing number that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.6%.

Average hourly earnings, a key inflation barometer, rose 0.5% for the month, more than the 0.3% estimate. On an annual basis, wages increased 4.4%, higher than the expectation for a 4.2% gain.

Job growth fared better than expected in April despite bank turmoil and a decelerating economy, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for the month, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969.

Average hourly earnings, a key inflation barometer, rose 0.5% for the month, more than the 0.3% estimate. On an annual basis, wages increased 4.4%, higher than the expectation for a 4.2% gain.


This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Original article -

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 180,000 in April, according to Dow Jones.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. So the slowing economy continues to grow and employment increases?

[BumRushDaShow]

2. What I think is happening

is that the sectors that got hit the worst during the pandemic shutdowns - "hospitality/travel" - are STILL trying to recoup. They, of all industries, were probably considered the most "non-essential" and when the lock-downs happened, many in fact went under. There is now a demand for this "leisure" and you even have new startups in the restaurant/vacation industry, although loans now will be more expensive.

However the rest of the job categories are slowing, although I think home-building might start picking up a bit.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. That's not true

From report:

In April, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services
(+43,000). Over the prior 6 months, the average monthly gain in the industry was
25,000. In April, professional, scientific, and technical services added 45,000
jobs. Employment in temporary help services continued to trend down over the month
(-23,000) and is down by 174,000 since its peak in March 2022.

Employment in health care increased by 40,000 in April, compared with the average
monthly gain of 47,000 over the prior 6 months. Over the month, employment continued
to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+24,000), nursing and residential
care facilities (+9,000), and hospitals (+7,000).

Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in April (+31,000),
largely in food services and drinking places (+25,000). Leisure and hospitality
had added an average of 73,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. Employment
in this industry remains below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 402,000,
or 2.4 percent.

In April, social assistance added 25,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly
gain of 21,000 over the prior 6 months. Individual and family services added 21,000
jobs over the month.

Employment in financial activities increased by 23,000 in April, with gains in
insurance carriers and related activities (+15,000) and in real estate (+9,000).
Employment in financial activities changed little in the first 3 months of this
year.

Government employment continued its upward trend in April (+23,000). Government
had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. Overall,
employment in government is below its February 2020 level by 301,000, or 1.3 percent.

Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction rose by 6,000 in April
and has risen by 102,000 since a recent low in February 2021. Nearly all of the
April job gain occurred in support activities for mining.

That's pretty broad growth across the many sectors.

And wages are up too, wages went up at 4 or 5 times the rate of inflation last month.

Something I think Biden needs to start talking about, is that his policies are effectively an unwinding of Trickle Down Economics. He's building an enomy from the ground up and the middle out.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. But it is in what you quoted and has been going for some time

particularly in locations where "tourism" is pretty much their main "industry" -

Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in April (+31,000),
largely in food services and drinking places (+25,000). Leisure and hospitality
had added an average of 73,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. Employment
in this industry remains below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 402,000,
or 2.4 percent.

This is an industry with a high churn...

[Johnny2X2X]

8. I was responding to this

"However the rest of the job categories are slowing, although I think home-building might start picking up a bit."

The rest of the categories aren't slowing, most are picking up, leisure and hospitality actually slowed some.

And we're at more people working that before the pandemic, we passed that mark several months ago. So the jobs market fully recovered and then some, it's just that people moved from lesire and hospitality into other sectors, probably because of better pay and benefits.

We're in the best job market in US history, there has never been a better time to look for a job than right now. And wage growth is starting to exceed inflation. We're in a great spot right now for jobs and it's because Democrats put working people first with all the big bills they passed the last 2 years.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. Okay thanks for clarifying

because my main thing was why the hiring keeps continuing and that contained a significant pump in the tourism/hospitality/leisure!

That industry IS "seasonal" so it's going to bop around - particularly in the colder areas in the CONUS where Memorial Day becomes the "official start of summer" and you get that hiring boost (including when schools let out and students are hired to staff leisure businesses (vending/recreational activities/amusement parks/resorts/pools for clubs and the public, etc.)).

But remember that even though we are back to the same or more "totals" for employment, there's a whole new "sub industry" (my term) of Amazon-like warehouse/distribution outlets that didn't exist to the extent that they do now, before the pandemic. So there was quite the build-up of that during and now as we go post-pandemic. However that might plummet to re-balance to more of a "just-in-time" model as the demand wanes, and they start to soften the "same day" / "next day" deliveries.

I had heard some biz reports the last week or two about the whole housing industry and construction of more rentals. I can't remember exactly what the context was although it may have been in relation to a slight downward trend happening for rental costs because of this.

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Agree

And the new warehouse and delivery jobs are a big reason why hospitality and leisure is still behind. People left restaurant jobs for Amazon and other Amazon like jobs. We've seen it big time in my city where restaurants are short staffed and their owners can't find people. Kitchen help especially. Well, cook jobs are not great. It's really hard work, with erratic hours, and few if any benefits. If you are a cook, you get cut when it gets slow, so getting close to 40 hours is tough, and the pay is usually not great.

People decided working in a warehouse, no matter how hard the work, for $20 an hour with some benefits and a steady 40 hour plus work week was preferrable to restaurant work. Cooks in my city aren't making $15 an hour on average, so it's no surprise that people got better paying jobs.

[progree]

11. Something is slowing - not that that's a bad thing

I don't want the Fed to tack on another quarter point hike



In the past 3 months job gains have averaged 222k/month, which is good. (Last 6 months: 278k/month average)

Source of graph: at the top of http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Rolling 3 month change (to smooth it out some), January 2021 thru April 2023
(monthly averages are 1/3 of what is shown)

[BumRushDaShow]

14. I think in this case

with more teetering west coast regional banks, they may be done for now (hopefully) and will wait until what things look like this 3rd quarter and decide in 4th quarter. There are banks holding low interest bonds that need to be unloaded somehow and they need time to get their assets re-balanced.

There's a bit of a "seasonal" wave thing going on in your first graph (peak in the summer then slow drop in fall with a 1-month winter spike and back to bottoming, followed by a slow rise leading to summer)!

[progree]

17. Well, they say these are seasonally adjusted numbers, but seasonal adjustment isn't a perfect

science. Just another source of error.

[BumRushDaShow]

19. For some reason

(goes back to my days in the lab with HPLC and GC plots) my brain fixates on peaks and patterns.

[progree]

21. "with more teetering west coast regional banks"

Regulators step in after PacWest and Western Alliance shares plunge as investors fear repeat of First Republic, SVB and Signature failures
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695835

they may be done for now (hopefully)

Let's hope.

My bank, US Bank, is one of the "regionals" that sometimes gets talked about. Fortunately it's a modest checking account that is massively below the $250,000 threshold.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. Yup

I know a couple more holes were poked in the wall yesterday, a day after that hike - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143070095

I had wondered who else after First Republic...? And I got my answer!

I am on my 5th bank after starting 40+ years ago with a (commercial) bank that had been around since the 1700s (First Pennsylvania). My parents had their mortgage and accounts there (before then, us kids had savings accounts at PSFS and then Western Savings).

Third Largest Bailout Set Up For Pa. Bank

By Nancy L. Ross
April 29, 1980

Federal financial regulators yesterday announced a $500 million rescue of First Pennsylvania Bank of Philadelphia, the third largest bailout in U.S. banking history. In addition, other banks have agreed to furnish First Pennsylvania with a $1 billion line of credit to help keep the bank afloat.

First Pennsylvania is the largest bank in Philadelphia and the 23rd largest in the nation. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Irvine H. Sprague said the bailout was essential to "providing general confidence in the banking system of our country." Sprague called First Pennsylvania an isolated incident and said, "we don't project additional significant problems."

Federal officials said the only bailouts bigger than First Pennsylvania were Franklin National Bank in New York in 1974 and U.S. National Bank in San Diego in 1973.

The federal rescue-plan is unique in that it is dependent upon assistance from the private sector. The $500 million aid package consists of a $325 million five-year loan from the FDIC plus $175 million in five-year loans from 22 major U.S. banks. This is in addition to the $1 billion line of credit. The FDIC refused to speculate what would have happened if these banks had not made the loans but stressed that letting First Pennsylvania go bankrupt was not considered.

(snip)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1980/04/29/third-largest-bailout-set-up-for-pa-bank/fe53f870-34ec-44bd-be2d-7043cefde2a1/

They eventually became "regional" as part of Corestates -

Corestates and First Pennsylvania to Merge

AP

Sept. 19, 1989

The Corestates Financial Corporation and the First Pennsylvania Corporation agreed today to merge in a $730 million deal.

The merger, which is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, would create a Philadelphia banking organization with almost $23 billion in assets. It would also be a force in the consumer, trust and credit card markets, and a leader in the processing of financial transactions in the mid-Atlantic region.

The tax-free $18.75-a-share stock-for-stock deal includes all of First Pennsylvania's nearly 39 million oustanding common shares and equivalents like convertible stock.

A rival bidder for First Pennsylvania, Meridian Bancorp Inc., said the deal amounted to less than its offer. The deal also ended an earlier agreement for First Pennsylvania to be acquired next spring by Marine Midland Banks Inc., the New York-based unit of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation of Hong Kong.

(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/09/19/business/corestates-and-first-pennsylvania-to-merge.html

Then Corestates was gobbled up by First Union - and First Union was munched by Wachovia, who was then taken over by Wells Fargo during that 2008 melt-down.

[toesonthenose]

3. Big revisions to Feb and March

March was revised 71,000 lower to 165,000 and February was revised 78,000 lower to 248,000.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Corporations are stockpiling bodies because of the marginal labor they already hired

LIFO (last in first out) may not describe the rounds of layoffs ahead. It's every man for himself and could you please give me a tax write-off for having to fire all these people? My human capital is diluted at a ratio of 3 per 8 employees, and most won't work weekends.

[progree]

5. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Last edited Fri May 12, 2023, 08:00 PM - Edit history (1)

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    # Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
    # Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
    # White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)

SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

More LFPR links including by race: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695870

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . The Data Series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
. . . . . . Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789

Data series finder: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

[IronLionZion]

9. This is all Biden's fault

Professional and business services led the job gains with an increase of 43,000. That was followed by health care (40,000), leisure and hospitality (31,000) and social assistance (25,000).

Despite serious banking industry troubles, jobs in finance increased by 23,000. Government hiring rose by 23,000.

He just keeps on creating jobs because of his leftist policies. Although GOP wants a recession really bad. Look forward to the GOP House being extra stupid on the debt ceiling.

[orangecrush]

12. And we

Will hang it around their necks.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. And from President Joe Biden

Link to tweet

President Biden
@POTUS
·
Follow
We just learned we created 253,000 jobs in April.

That's 12.7 million jobs since I took office, an unemployment rate that is the lowest since 1969, and the highest share of working age people in the workforce since 2008.

My plan to invest in America is working.
9:30 AM · May 5, 2023

[IronLionZion]

20. Biden's liberal policies are really destroying so many jobs

[BumRushDaShow]

22. In fact

it's "disaster socialism/communism".

[progree]

16. Well, damn. Nobody wants to work anymore, people say

Prime age labor force participation rate, age 25-54, thru April
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060



The ones the RW greed-bangers cite as proof of "nobody wants to work anymore" is, the age 16+ one (the official Labor Force Participation Rate), http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 , is still down from the pre-pandemic peak, and probably won't get to that point because of boomer retirements. That statistic includes ALL ages 16 and over, including centenarians.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. That's why the RW

have now shifted to staring at the southern border and "immigration"!

[DENVERPOPS]

24. I think all these new jobs

are in reality, a large number of people realizing that with the incredible inflation, they are going to have to get two jobs to even subsist......

"Sarcasm"!!!!!!!!!!!!! But maybe not...............

[LetMyPeopleVote]

25. Another strong jobs report in April

Link to tweet