Disease experts warn White House of potential for omicron-like wave of illness

[jgo]

Source: Washington Post

The White House recently received a sobering warning about the potential for the coronavirus to come roaring back, with experts reaching a consensus that there’s a roughly 20 percent chance during the next two years of an outbreak rivaling the onslaught of illness inflicted by the omicron variant.

A forecast from one widely regarded scientist pegged the risk at a more alarming level, suggesting a 40 percent chance of an omicron-like wave.

White House officials spoke with about a dozen leading experts in virology, immunobiology and other fields about the prospect that the virus would again develop mutations that allow it to evade protections from vaccines and treatments. Those discussions, not previously reported, came as the administration planned for the May 11 end of the public health emergency that was declared at the dawn of the pandemic.

Some experts based their conclusions on existing research, and at least one, computational biologist Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, conducted new statistical analysis about the potential for a coronavirus wave.


Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/05/05/covid-forecast-next-two-years/

[marble falls]

1. I think that is a realistic prediction. Like the second round of Spanish Flu.

[Larissa]

12. What a coincidence

Just tonight I took out my copy of John M. Barry's The Great Influenza. Few things have freaked me out as the description of the speed with which this second wave of the virus killed people, sometimes within twelve hours after the initial infection. Some people would literally drop dead in the street hemorrhaging blood from their ears, eyes and mouth. Because of the swiftness of the virus at this stage, many had the bodies of loved ones in their homes as the authorities were unable to keep up with corpse removal.

It just so happens that tomorrow I am getting my second bivilant booster.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

[iluvtennis]

17. Thanks for the link. Scary stuff. n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

23. In this case, given we know how to sequence the variants

we had this happen with COVID-19. Basically producing at least 7 "waves", the worst being the initial appearance and onslaught of Omicron after Delta ravaged the populace.

[intrepidity]

2. Well, with everyone thinking it's all in the rearview mirror

I won't be very surprised when another wave comes roaring in.

Trevor Bedford knows what's up, I 'd pay attention.

[NJCher]

3. still wearin' that mask

I'm one of few, but far from the only one.

[Laffy Kat]

6. I do, too.

It's now optional at the clinic where I work and I'm one of the very few who still don one. I get asked about it daily by both patients and coworkers alike. I told one especially obnoxious patient that I think of it kind of like wearing a seatbelt. His response: "Why would you wear a seatbelt?" I answered that I used to be an EMT and I saw what happens when you don't wear one, plus, it's the law. He just rolled his eyes.

[iluvtennis]

16. Love the seat belt analogy. n/t

[tanyev]

25. Wow. Why wouldn't someone wear a seatbelt?

[Laffy Kat]

41. Beats me.

Doesn't like the "gov-mint" telling them what to do, I guess.

[wnylib]

38. Masks are optional at the local hospital

and at my primary care office. I was at the local hospital on Wednesday and I was the only person there wearing a mask. At my primary care office, almost no patients wear them. With the staff, it's about 50-50.

My supermarket has a senior discount day once a week. When I go there, about 1/3 of the shoppers wear masks. What surprised me was that almost half of the cashiers wear masks there and most of them are pretty young. I asked one young cashier (about mid 20s) why she wore a mask, thinking she'd say that she just got over covid since people are advised to return to work after 5 days, but wear a mask. But she said that she's pregnant (which was not immediately obvious under her smock) and does not want to take risks for herself or the baby since she has to be in close contact with people on the job.

In my senior apartment building, where we are all at higher risk due to age, NOBODY wears a mask except me. One of my neighbors asked me a few days ago, "What's with the mask? Nobody wears them any more." I said that I have serious underlying conditions. Another neighbor overheard me and made a snorting sound before telling me, very authoritatively, "Covid is over. It has been for a long time. You just look silly."

[PlutosHeart]

10. I still wear mine.

Will continue to.

[NullTuples]

13. Same, & fully vaxxed.

[yaesu]

19. I had my first negative comment about my mask wearing the other day, a tRumper ask sarcasticly

if I planned on wearing that all my life, I asked him if he planned on being nosey all his life, he just walked away.

[barbtries]

21. I'm another one.

I'm 67 with comorbidities and my plan is to continue masking from here on out. The last URI I had laid me out sick as a dog for 9 whole days and I don't know if I'll survive the next one. I don't know how it is that my son who lives with me and I have escaped it this long.

[AllaN01Bear]

32. same.

[Tikki]

36. We do, also.

Husband had a heart attack in the middle of it all, he’s fine, but we are wearing our masks until, probably forever.

The Tikkis

[area51]

44. I'm also still masking.

[niyad]

47. Still wearing mine. About 20 percent masking where I go.

[JudyM]

4. Important article, thanks for posting it, jgo.

No paywall: https://archive.ph/xMOb8

[littlemissmartypants]

5. ❤️

[Hekate]

7. KnR

[speak easy]

8. coulda, shoulda. woulda

Time will tell.

[sakabatou]

9. How many people will die because of their egos?

[Rebl2]

34. If they

refuse vaccination I hope many will.
I remember a three years ago a friend said her husband had super immunity (whatever that is) and they refused to be vaccinated. Early last year they both got sick from what ever the current Covid was at that time. Guess he wasn’t so super immune after all.

[Skittles]

11. because most people (fucking morons) are behaving like it no longer exists

that's pretty much a certainty

[NullTuples]

14. Historians may look back and ask, "They had vaccines, why didn't they immunize everyone?"

"They understood how it was transmitted, why didn't they social distance?"

[Captain Zero]

24. Because they believed a Fascist Liar

will be the short answer. Unless Fascism wins and erases history.

[speak easy]

15. maybe, babe,

maybe hype-othetical. Maybe not. It's Joe's call. I trust this man.

[BigmanPigman]

18. I look at Worldometers and the past 3 years

are at the lowest level since 2020. I just made my appointment for the next booster since my last one was in Oct. and I still wear my N95 every time I am around others, not because I want to protect others but because I am concerned about my own health and I don't trust humans to mask up if they are sick. I just watched a film about David Crosby who died in Jan 2023 (3 months ago) from complications from Covid.

"Crosby had died in his sleep from complications of COVID-19. "He was on his fifth day, went to take a nap, and never woke up."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[C Moon]

20. Wow!

[bucolic_frolic]

22. The disease will do what it's going to do. Prepare MAGA Purge, The Encore

You can't make fools behave in ways that help them or society.

[Blues Heron]

26. Its funny how we never got the all clear on the shoe bomber - we still have to take our shoes off

But we get nothing but all clears on COVID (no masks required if vaxxed, no masks required on planes, emergency over , back to work! in the office! etc etc. )

When is the all clear on shoe bombers? its been 20 years? WTF?

[tornado34jh]

27. I feel like we are at the point where we know it is be endemic worldwide

It will never go away, but will come in waves. If we wanted to stop this virus, we should have done so a long time ago. But you know, there is something to be said about how we are never prepared for this. Granted, I probably should be putting my mask on, seeing as I work in a grocery store, but in a stressful job where it is difficult enough to get there, I never get the time to bring one. But then again, it's Florida where no one really takes it that seriously. Ironically, a lot of the people moving here are from up north.

[mollie8]

28. Well...

Called my sister yesterday. She said, "I have covid." They found out their neighbors had it so they tested, and she was positive. She sounded very congested, said she was mostly sleeping and felt bad. So it is not totallly sleeping.

[orthoclad]

30. Infection stats are unclear

due to all the unreported home tests, but I know of three recent confirmed cases. I think the infection rate is fairly high right now. The only reliable current stats are the hospitalization and death rates, which are low relative to the infection rate because of improved care.

[GopherGal]

43. The Boston Wastewater Monitoring

isn't showing any recent uptick since the one around New Years...

I'd say that's one of the better monitoring metrics we have at this point.

https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm]

[orthoclad]

49. Wastewater monitoring

is a good proxy for community-level spread.
I don't see any central reporting of that stat, like the infection rate and mortality stats on Worldometer. National testing of wastewater would be an economical and efficient gauge of infection rates.

[orthoclad]

29. Short attention span and political exploitation,

along with exhaustion, will make a new wave deadly.
Fortunately, there should be a reserve of immunity from vax and infection. I hope. A wildly deviant variant could escape immunity.

We'll have bio-terrorists coughing in people's faces, selling counterfeit masks, and doing everything in their power to make it worse.

[AllaN01Bear]

31. it never left wear your masks and update your vaccines . pox the idiots .

[Bayard]

33. Still masking here

Though I rarely see others doing it anymore.

Too many health conditions to take the risk.

[ificandream]

35. Thanks for this.

I'm 71. I wear my mask everywhere outside the house. Even if I'm walking and no one's around. I don't give a shit who looks funny at me.

[hueymahl]

37. I feel bad for those who live in a constant state of fear.

[LuckyCharms]

39. Explain please?

[wnylib]

40. And how do you feel about those who live in ignorance?

Young, healthy people have little to be concerned about with covid if they are vaccinated. If they get infected, they can take one of the meds, like Paxlovid, and recover in a week or two, IF they don't get long covid and nobody knows who will or won't get that.

But, for people 65 and older, and anyone of any age who has diabetes, blood clotting issues, organ transplants, lupus, a thyroid disorder, cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, kidney disease, takes steroids for any reason (allergies to inflammatory illness), or is pregnant, covid is a very serious illness likely to kill them or do severely crippling damage.

It's not a matter of "living in fear" for us. It's a matter of common sense precautions based on medical science. And lack of a death wish. I take precautions, like keeping up to date on boosters, sensible distancing, and wearing a mask when indoors outside of my home. If I were living in fear, I'd stay home. But I don't. I get out and about, but with common sense and medical science precautions.

[appalachiablue]

53. ++

[Blues Heron]

42. Everyone should have a healthy fear of this virus- we've seen what it is capable of

I can’t imagine being afraid of a scrap of cloth or a life saving vaccine though.

[orthoclad]

50. Someone used that on me.

I rescued her when she was literally trembling in terror because a harmless cicada was on her mailbox, then she told me I was living in fear and insecurity because I had the COURTESY to put on a mask first.

[DashOneBravo]

45. How soon before the authoritarians start locking things down?

[dickthegrouch]

46. Those vaccinations and Paxlovid

Probably saved my life.
We finally caught it a couple of weeks ago.
I have comorbidities, my partner doesn’t. We’ve both pulled through fine so far. But I’m not taking my mask off for anything except the dentist and to eat, isolated for many more months yet.

The fear of looking different or foolish or afraid is far outweighed by my potential inability to continue supporting my family.

[SouthernDem4ever]

48. There are plenty of anti-vaxxers to keep it going

Thanks to them, there will be more variants.

[orthoclad]

51. Indeed.

I was in a store discussing vax and mask with another guy in line, and a rumper broke into the conversation with "You trust the govmint that much?"

I side-eyed and said "More than I trust you."

It's in the interests of the oligarchy to keep the chaos rolling. Look at the huge fortunes made during the pandemic - enough for multiple space tourisms, for instance. Follow the money.

I hope the worst is over, but i'm not putting any money on it.