China Might Have 65 Million COVID Cases a Week by June. How Worried Should the World Be?

[riversedge]

Source: time




Commuters wearing face masks make their way along a street in the central business district during the morning rush hour in Beijing. (Mark Schiefelbein—AP Photo)

By Chad de Guzman May 29, 2023 3:18 AM EDT

..................

..............
China has been facing a new COVID-19 wave fueled by the XBB variant since April. Data from Zhong Nanshan—a respiratory disease doctor who was among the first to confirm COVID-19’s easy transmissibility—provided a rare insight into how the disease could possibly be spreading in China almost six months after Beijing abruptly ended its draconian zero-COVID strategy.


Since pivoting to “living with the virus” policy from early December, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention stopped updating weekly infections. But the sudden relaxation of anti-epidemic protocols also led to an estimated 37 million new infections a day weeks later. By January, experts said they believed almost 80% of China’s 1.4 billion population had already been infected in this first wave.

For the second wave since April, Zhong’s modeling revealed that the XBB variant is expected to cause 40 million infections weekly by May, going up to 65 million in June. This goes against the grain of Chinese health officials’ estimate that the wave had peaked in April. In Beijing, the number of new infections recorded between May 15 and 21 grew four times in four weeks.

Chinese data a concern

With the virus continuing to circulate in China coupled with a waning public immunity, the possibility of a new, more dangerous sub-variant emerging still exists, Bennett adds, although the likelihood is much smaller now. The latest mutations in the genetic makeup of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have not been significantly different from the last major variant, Omicron, and the symptoms of infections are relatively milder. “It’s somewhat reassuring, thus, now a year and a half into Omicron, that we haven’t seen a major shift that’s either undermined our immunity, our testing capability, and importantly, antivirals,” Bennett adds..................

...........................

Read more: https://time.com/6283257/china-xbb-covid-outbreak/

---

Well, it seems this new variant is less of a concern here in the US. Yet, we have soo so so many unvaccinated --and the Trumpsters never take the jab. I stay away from large crowds.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[FarPoint]

1. I ask what vaccines they have been using all along...???

Did they use Pfizer/ Moderna Series or did they make their own which has not been effective???

We should be worried and I think every one needs the last two boosters out their for 65 and older and the immune compromised.

[Bengus81]

9. AFAIK they refused any of that "western" type of vaccine

You know,kind of like most Trump humpers. They keep dying to this day. We've had close to 500 die from Covid in Kansas so far this year.

[AZ8theist]

39. That's because the vast majority of Trumpanzes are like this:

[wolfie001]

11. They made their own and....

....I believe it was like 60% effective. Poor performance overall.

[LymphocyteLover]

18. 60% against the OG virus, at best... no doubt much worse against new strains

[Mister Ed]

31. China is pretty heavy into corporate espionage. If they must steal something...

...then I wish it would be our vaccines.

[LymphocyteLover]

40. haha, true!

[cilla4progress]

2. No. 6 shot

on deck!

Travel upcoming

[TexasBushwhacker]

12. I was thinking the same thing

Flying to Los Angeles on June 12th. Got my last booster last November. Hoping they have a new one I can get now. I'm 66 with a history of pneumonia.

[deurbano]

16. They've recommended (and approved) another bivalent booster for 65 and older.

I got it two weeks before I was attending a graduation.

https://www.uclahealth.org/news/new-covid-19-booster-authorized-people-65-and-older

[PSPS]

22. Plus another bivalent re-jiggered for the new dominant strains is due in the fall.

[deurbano]

24. That's good news! I hope they'll come up with the nasal spray sometime soon.

(And that it's not like the Jetson flying cars I was promised!)

[Pluvious]

29. Hopefully there'll be one for XBB 1.5 for us by Fall... nt

[FarPoint]

35. Also, immune compromised individuals also quality...

Don't be shy folks...stick out that arm and get your " Fauci Ouchi"....

[deurbano]

38. Yes, my daughter is in that category, and we got them at the same time a few weeks ago.

I was worried at first because I didn't get a fever (like I have every other time), but it was just delayed! (Of course, I know not getting a fever is not actually a problem...)

[moreland01]

3. The problem is STILL about having a lifelong disability from even a mild case.

And that having Covid multiple times can increase your chances of having multiple health problems for the rest of your life.

It's like everyone has forgotten about that.

I can't help but roll my eyes (with sunglass on) when I meet the "it was just a little sniffle" crowd. They have absolutely no idea what that virus has done to their insides, and may be continuing to do.

[CrispyQ]

4. Yes, I've also heard the "it was just a little sniffle so why are you so worried about it" BS.

Someone I know has had it three times.

[moreland01]

5. Google Ed Sheeran and Covid

He claims he's had it at least seven times.

[Traildogbob]

25. Whaaaat?

Is he a no Vax guy? His life is his lungs, hopefully he DOES Vax. And memory for all those lyrics.

[CrispyQ]

6. No one listens to the scientists, who are warning us, basically telling us,

contagious diseases are our new reality. If we listen to them as good as we did with climate change, well, 'nuff said.

[Evolve Dammit]

8. They're warning us about AI too. We don't seem to be equipped to deal with reality.

[COL Mustard]

13. Maybe the anti-vaxxers will trust what the AI

Says to do for COVID. They sure didn't trust the scientists.

Or maybe they'll just get sick and die.

[Rural_Progressive]

36. I'm thinking about creating a new fun device for the holidays

Going to call it "The Wheel of Doomocles".

With something new to be worried sick about each and every day I figure I'll just create a wheel you hang on the wall and rather than worry about everything, you give the wheel a spin and pick one thing to be concerned about each day.

Thinking about all the stuff that's coming at us all the time can send you into a corner with a blanket pulled over your head sucking on your thumb. Immobilization is not the answer but it's sure getting tougher to avoid.

[Evolve Dammit]

37. I think it would be a money-maker! A separate wheel would be what you should do about it.

Dig a hole, assume the fetal position, buy more guns, duct tape windows, etc., etc. A game: Call it "Doomsday 101"? I get some cash if you use that name!

[Orrex]

7. The most important thing is that billionaires continue to rake in profits

Hundreds or thousands or millions of deaths don't really matter; what matters is keeping businesses open and the $$$ flowing into the pockets of the wealthy.

But we shouldn't worry. We've seen that Americans are willing to step up to do what's necessary in a health crisis, so long as it doesn't inconvenience them in any way or cause the least discomfort or require even minimal effort.

[hay rick]

14. "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of a million is a statistic."

Billionareish wisdom from Joseph Stalin.

[Pluvious]

30. The Las Vegas Strip saw 8.3b in gambling revenues last year !

Wheeee

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

10. Is China actually putting out new numbers?

What they have on site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries hasn't been updated in at least a year.

[TexasBushwhacker]

20. I don't think so

That's the same figure that's on Ari Schiffman's website. He designed it while still in high school and refused to monetize it.

https://ncov2019.live/

Compare China's publicized figure if 500K vs India's 45M and the US with over 100M. Yeah, I don't think so.

[Martin68]

15. Sounds like Chinas is an intensive breeding-ground for deadly COVID variants.

[AllaN01Bear]

17. what could go wrong, go wrong, go wrong.?

[gordianot]

19. There are a couple Florida men one retired and the other still in office who could give China advice

Both have continuing leadership ambitions that would be very beneficial to China.

[IronLionZion]

21. More variants will come quickly that we don't know about

we're way past the point of no return on that. Take your shots, mask up in crowds, and hope for the best.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. How to handle it has always been complex

Shutdowns early were completely necessary and saved lives. We had no idea how bad it could have been without the shutdowns. Could have easily been several million dead Americans rather than just 1 million. Then as we learned more, could treat it better, and got vaccines to the public, it kind of needed to make its way through the population.

It was always going to be nuanced. It was always going to be time phased on what was the right strategy to use and when to use it.

China had a zero Covid policy for too long and now it exploded there because there was little natural immunity built up in the population bit by bit. Now GOOers, who are incapable of understanding nuance will look at this and go, “see, we should have never had shutdowns.” Shutdowns were appropriate, they saved lives, and they bought time for us to learn more about Covid. Mandating vaccines was correct too. Republicans were wrong about Covid at every turn and are still wrong now and will be wrong going forward. They can’t grasp nuance and precautionary measures when we had so many unknowns.

Covid ultimately weakened in mortality rate, like most viruses do. We’re still going to be dealing with its aftermath for years to come. But we’re also past it being a major disruption to life here for the foreseeable future.

[WA-03 Democrat]

26. I am going to China on Tuesday for a 2 week business trip

Screw me...masks masks and more masks. My friends that live in China have told me about this wave a couple of weeks ago. Had Covid over Christmas....I'm 56 and in good health but do not want to get it again. Laid me down for 3 weeks.

I have to go to 3 other countries. I used to go to Asia every month and this will be my first trip back. I miss it but not enough...advice??

[orleans]

32. don't go.

(you asked for advice & that's my first thought)

can this business trip be done over zoom calls?


otherwise: no eating/drinking in public places or around other people.

it always amazes me when someone says they just took their mask off to eat in a restaurant. well, duh, where the hell do they think they caught covid then? yet they always seem surprised -- just taking that mask off to eat in a (potentially crowded) restaurant isn't going to protect you or anyone from catching covid

have lots of kn95s with you. keep them tight on bridge of nose, under eyes, sides of face.

don't go into crowded places (stores, restaurants, tourist attractions, movie theaters)

mask even when you're outside

take plenty of hand sanitizer (ala bath & body works has little pocket ones and also little spray bottles -- all with delightful scents). then use it after touching door handles or any surface other people have been touching or coughing/sneezing/talking around

pack some hepa filters and an air filter machine or two. and use them.

my daughter has a small, portable one that plugs in to charge.

keep mask on during plane trips (and, of course, in the airport). no eating/drinking on planes.

same goes for taxi/cab rides.

or just don't go. (probably easier to just stay home)

when did you get the bivalent booster? google COVID booster effectiveness after 6 months

stay safe

[Traildogbob]

27. Damn

I still mask and avoid crowds like GQP audio, especially trump and Green. But I just got tix for myself and brother and SIL for Jason Isbell at the Orange Peel in August. I Will be getting every Vax between now and then and will mask. My first indoor crowd since the beginning. Not many I would take that risk for. But I love him and his wife Amanda so much. Just damn this monster and the fools that have let it stay. Maybe I will get ”St. Peter’s Autograph”.😉 Jason fans will understand.
Happy Memorial Day to all. Remember all those that died to keep Nazis the hell away from here. We must honor that lose by ending it again, especially inside our government.

[LW1977]

28. Thread trashed

[orleans]

33. ????? nt

[Peregrine Took]

34. Thanks so much for this -. 'Need to get a vaccine haven't had one since 9/22. n/t