Trump beats Biden by 6 points in 2024 matchup: poll

[discocrisco01]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Lasher (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: The Hill

Former President Trump leads President Biden by six points in a 2024 presidential race hypothetical matchup in a new survey shared Friday with The Hill from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll.

The poll found that 45 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump if the 2024 election were held today between the former president and Biden, while 39 percent said they’d support Biden. A separate 15 percent said they were unsure or did not know.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4054317-trump-beats-biden-by-6-points-in-2024-matchup-poll/

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My eye rolls when I see this one

[TomDaisy]

1. the media has nothing to say unless they have a horserace. Red Wave 2.0.

[walkingman]

2. My brain explodes when I see this.

[kimbutgar]

3. I call BS on this poll

And would like to see the methodology they used to get this result. The orange maggot already has two indictments with 3-5 more coming.

Talk about wanting to influence people with propaganda.

[live love laugh]

9. ✔️

[NoMoreRepugs]

4. I call Bullshit.

[Meadowoak]

5. +1

[JohnSJ]

17. It is bullshit. It is an online poll

[LakeArenal]

6. I don't believe it. I just don't. My poll loving friend thinks I'm ignoring reality.

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. This is not a uniform poll result.

I just heard yesterday that Biden beats Trump by 4-6 points in a separate poll. But other posters are right. The weight of other indictments haven't hit the polling market. And polling results due to major events takes from 10-14 days to register with national polling efforts.

[Ellipsis]

8. Oh, fuck that.

I'm sorry first thing that popped into my head.

[PortTack]

41. Mine too...that's utter nonsense

[LiberalFighter]

10. This is bullshit!

[JohnSJ]

11. USA today had a poll a few days ago which reversed what these numbers are.

"President Joe Biden holds single-digit edges over both former President Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential race, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds, but nearly 1 in 4 voters say they would support a third-party candidate if the election was held today."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/13/biden-trump-desantis-2024-poll-third-party/70310496007/

I really question these polls, not only because of the sampling process, but the fact that a lot of people don't answer phone calls anymore because of so much spam.

Just who were these people that would vote for a conman, racists, sexist, autocrat?

ALSO THIS IS AN ONLINE POLL:

"The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

[orleans]

24. online poll? is it one of those where you can vote a hundred times? nt

[JohnSJ]

27. Probably not, but it seems the selection process to determine who is to participate in this online

is questionable, since they don't report a probability confidence interval.

"The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll was conducted between June 14 and June 15 with 2,090 respondents surveyed. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

[orleans]

33. thanks for all of your posts on this thread JohnSJ

i appreciate it.

[JohnSJ]

35. You are very kind

[live love laugh]

12. Why TF is Harvard polling to bolster a traitor?

[JohnSJ]

19. It is an online poll without even a probability confidence interval. It is crap, and should be on

LBN

"The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

Here is another poll which has Biden beating both trump and desantis

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/13/biden-trump-desantis-2024-poll-third-party/70310496007/

[Joinfortmill]

13. i certainly hope not, but let them keep thinking it.

[JohnSJ]

15. This does NOT belong in LBN. It is a ONLINE POLL, without a probability confidence interval.

Screw that

"The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

Typical of The Hill try to stir things up with a poll that is very shaky

[BOSSHOG]

16. The power of Russian-trumpian collusion

As we chat this evening, magas are consuming Russian propaganda on Facebook and elsewhere.

Ya know, stupid people whom trump loves.

[LiberalFighter]

18. Nearly 5 million that voted for him in 2020 will be dead by Nov 2024.

There will be many in prison and can't vote.
There will be some that have served their time but have a felony and in some states those with a felony can't vote.
There will some that say they are fed up with him.

[orthoclad]

40. And some that died of covid,

because the vaccines got Dem cooties.

[FloridaBlues]

20. Isn't this the online poll? There was another one today Biden up by 4.

Way toooo early for general election polling

[elleng]

23. Yes, and Yes.

[JohnSJ]

25. Yes it is. It indicates in their sample that only 77% Democrats would support Biden, while 86%

republicans say they would support trump.

That alone tells me this online poll distribution is questionable at best.

"The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll was conducted between June 14 and June 15 with 2,090 respondents surveyed. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll."

"The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

[dem4decades]

21. I guess that's a fact then, or just a bunch of bullshit.

[elleng]

22. Someones are confused.

[andym]

26. Reagan should never have beaten Jimmy Carter: but high inflation and the Iran hostages were too much

Carter was and is highly intelligent and capable, who accomplished much, while flaky Reagan was spouting Readers Digest ideas such as trees were a major source of pollution. "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people..." (likely HL Mencken created some version of this saying)

[JohnSJ]

28. It was the Iran hostages, and the Reagan deal with Iran not to release the hostages until after the

election.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/expert-analyzes-new-account-of-gop-deal-that-used-iran-hostage-crisis-for-gain

[andym]

37. The hostages were certainly in the news every night back then: "America Held Hostage, Day xyz"

made Ted Koppel and Nightline household names and did Jimmy Carter no favors.

[orthoclad]

43. Don't forget the killer rabbit

Pics of Carter slapping a canoe paddle at a swimming rabbit becaus he thought it was rabid.

Also: MEOW -- Moral Eqivalent of War, aka energy crisis
and so on.

There was less corporate media back then, but it was still the voice of the ruling class.

[RandySF]

29. I'm not going to panic in the middle of 2023.

[Mysterian]

30. LOL

Thanks for sharing, sparky.

[Lonestarblue]

31. Even the mainstream media is trying to tank Biden by constantly bringing up his age.

As if Trump is a super young man who doesn’t enough baggage to sink another Titanic-sized ship. My God, does the media truly want another Trump presidency? I feel like I’m living in the Twilight Zone where nothing makes sense!

[Ford_Prefect]

34. They are being very well paid to observe nothing but their own ageist bias. They are selling soap...

There is no average voter nor does the data support such a fanciful statistic. In the end people vote the issues which most affect them personally. ALL of the polling companies know this.

IMO If you run the exact same poll next September you'll get a remarkably different answer.

[sheshe2]

32. Why is this being posted here?

[EarthFirst]

42. This x 10,000

This is garbage “LBN”

[thesquanderer]

36. Besides the other flaws mentioned... popular vote does not win elections.

Any poll which doesn't calculate who's ahead in each state is pretty useless.

[LudwigPastorius]

38. Real Clear Politics' average of polls has...

Trump leading by 2, which is within the margin of error.

Essentially, Trump and Biden are tied at this point.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

[PortTack]

44. RCP is right leaning

RIGHT-CENTER BIAS


These media sources are slightly to moderately conservative in bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appealing to emotion or stereotypes) to favor conservative causes. These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation

Mediabiasfact-check.com

[elias7]

39. If the media spent real time reporting on Biden's accomplishments and Trump's crimes,

then maybe the electrolyte would have a clue

[sheshe2]

50. Reporting accomplishments of both Biden and Harris!

This! Thank you, Elias.

[Beautiful Disaster]

45. This poll is junk.

1. it's consistently had Trump leading. Every poll they've released, Trump has led. Their last poll had Trump leading by 7.

2. All these polls are meaningless this far out. Why? Because 15% is a ridiculously high uncertain number. For all we know, 70% of those who are uncertain will vote for Biden in the end. That basically puts him at 49% in this poll - or within the MOE.

[hay rick]

46. bullshit. nt

[Man Burns Own House]

47. The SHILL???

Haha! Now that's funny!

[vercetti2021]

48. Haha ok sure

The minute PA and MI are called for Biden on Nov 2024. It will be over. Both are now solidly blue states. AZ, GA or WI puts him over the top.

[lees1975]

49. B.S.

I was on an MSN poll yesterday asking whether you supported or didn't support the indictments against Trump and 78% of those respondents supported them. And a YouGov poll, on whether or not the GOP should nominate Trump again showed 71% saying either absolutely not, or probably not. There was not a single favorable comment in a long list of comments.

I believe the days of landslide politics are over for a while. But any poll that says Trump is six points ahead of Biden head to head is bogus. Biden's a good bet to win 55% of the vote, and pick up over 300 electoral votes.

[Lasher]

52. Locking, we don't usually allow polls in the LBN Forum