Russia's Notorious Wagner Group Is Being Disbanded. Here's What That Means for Ukraine

[Kennah]

Source: Time

In the wake of a tumultuous weekend that saw Russian President Vladimir Putin survive the biggest test to his leadership in 23 years, the disbandment of the mutinous Wagner Group appears to now be underway, the BBC reported.

Russia’s defense ministry has said that the Wagner Group will surrender its supply of weapons and hardware, and its fighters have been invited by Putin to join the Russian army instead. Failing that, mercenaries can flee to neighboring Belarus, which has been involved in mediating an agreement between the two parties since Wagner’s rebellion on Saturday.

The mercenary group seized control of key military sites in Rostov-on-Don during an armed event that saw at least 13 pilots killed, according to news reports citing pro-military bloggers. Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his fighters decided to turn back before reaching Moscow and entered a deal—brokered with assistance from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko—that saw the charges against Prigozhin dropped in exchange for him leaving the country.

A private jet linked to Prigozhin arrived in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, on Tuesday morning. But it has not yet been confirmed if the Wagner chief was onboard, and the Kremlin has said it has no information on his whereabouts.

Read more: https://time.com/6290536/russia-wagner-group-disbanded-ukraine/

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Two questions:

1. Did that private jet have any windows?
2. Was the no smoking sign on?

[Alexander Of Assyria]

1. One year contract. Expired. March on Moscow for new contracts... Not renewed, for obvious reasons,

Mercenaries supporting dictators should stick to their guns and not meddle in politics, get burned!

[BComplex]

2. Belarus, where Putin just gave Belarus dictator Lukashenko a bunch of nuclear weapons.

And Lukashenko just offered them to anyone who wants them.

Holy shit.

[pandr32]

4. Are you suggesting Putin is setting up a scapegoat to blame...

if nukes are used?

[CanonRay]

3. Imagine having your own private jet

and no where to go but Minsk.

[CaptainTruth]

5. Certainly not disbanded in Africa?

This article seems misleading, it makes it sound like the entire group is being disbanded.

In reality I believe it's more accurate to say the Wagner Group in Russia & Ukrane is being partially disbanded. I say partially because I would think some troops will remain loyal Prigozhin & join him in Belarus, so there will still be a Wagner Group there. It will certainly be smaller & less well armed, & what they might do remains to be seen.

And what effect does Prigozhin leaving Russia & Ukraine have on the Wagner Group's extensive operations in Africa? Certainly there're not being disbanded there, they're too strategically important to the group & a lucrative source of income. Are those troops loyal to Prigozhin, or Putin? Is there going to be a power struggle between Prigozhin & Putin for control of Wagner's African operations?

I have more questions than answers & it seems like our media has done a poor job reporting on it all.

[yardwork]

6. The report keeps saying that Belarus brokered a deal.

I don't believe that.

[GregariousGroundhog]

15. Lukashenko had a part to play

We have to take everything said with a grain of salt. That said, the reported story is that Putin and Prigozhin refused to return each other's calls, that Lukashenko called Prigozhin and told him that Putin planned to "crush him like a bug," and that Lukashenko called Putin and told him that "a bad peace is better than any war".

I suspect that Putin eventually realized that he had no quick or easy way to arrest/kill several thousand well-armed soldiers. I also suspect that Prigozhin eventually realized that while the Russian military wasn't terribly inclined to stop him, they weren't going to support him either.

[oldsoftie]

7. I doubt most Wagnerites will take that deal. "Turn in their weapons". HA

They wont want to start taking orders from a far more incompetent command.

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Perhaps by the end of the week, Prigozhin will be the new president of Belarus.

[Xolodno]

16. Could be possible, but not in a week.

Lukashenko wants Prigozhin to train their troops, with his Mercs that "join" him, now that they are battle hardened and experienced.

Another advantage, Putin now has plausible deniability. Prigozhin could do a raid into Ukraine and Putin just says "knew nothing about it, we aren't on speaking terms, remember?" Despite rumored off the books business deals.

And Lukashenko did have health problems recently.

Prigozhin going to Belarus is damn suspicious. He could have called any Western Capital and offer to the spill the beans on everything in exchange for protection and immunity.

[Warpy]

9. It means that military contractors on the ground who knew what they were doing

are going to be dispersed within an army and have to take orders from a power structure that doesn't know its thumb from its bum..

They aren't going to like it. My guess is that they'll choose exile in Belarus rather than fulfilling their duty to get shot up for the motherland. From there, I think they'll likely join the anti Putin forces in Belgorod.

As for Prigozhin, his lifespan is likely to be very short. Putin has had time to think things over now and he's furious.

[Joinfortmill]

10. 👍

[bluestarone]

11. Would it be possible that POOTY threatened the leader of the Wagner group

If they didn't turn immediately the would be NUKED? (THE WHOLE BUNCH)

[Martin68]

14. Extremely unlikely. The use of a nuke on Russian territory would turn the entire country against him

[Warpy]

12. Wagner was killed of when the FSB raided their HQ in Moscow

and took the money, the gold, Prigozhin's stash of fake passports, and the lists of fighters still being paid by the organization. I don't know what they're going to do about the Wagner forces across the planet or if or how they'll retrieve them.

They do know Prigozhin is a threat, even broke (which he won't be) and living in Belarus.

Some people have thought he will be sitting in Lukashenko's chair soon, the new strong man there. I rather doubt that, if only because Putin is rethinking the whole thing and is furious about how close he came to being pitched out a window. He might use Prigozhin and the remnants of the Wagner forces as the muscle behind the next corrupt bastard he installs there, but he won't want Prigozhin to have any direct power.

Still, the one thing we can all be sure of is our consistent record of getting Russia wrong, almost as consistent as their record of getting the west wrong.

[Martin68]

13. There is concern that Prigozhin may reconstitute his force in Belarus where he's been given a

military base. If that happens it would have serious repercussions for Belarus, Ukraine and other neighboring countries.