Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases
Source: CNBC
Inflation fell to its lowest annual rate in more than two years during June, the product both of some deceleration in costs and easy comparisons against a time when price increases were running at a more than 40-year high.
The consumer price index increased 3% from a year ago, which is the lowest level since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%. That compared to Dow Jones estimates for respective increases of 3.1% and 0.3%.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis. Consensus estimates expected respective increases of 5% and 0.3%.
In sum, the numbers could give the Federal Reserve some breathing room as it looks to bring down inflation that was running around a 9% annual rate at this time in 2022, the highest November 1981.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html
From the source -
Link to tweet
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
#CPI #BLSdata
8:31 AM · Jul 12, 2023
Article updated.
Original article -
This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.
= new reply since forum marked as read
I have to go watch Fux news now and let them tell me what to think today.
though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.
First the regular headline CPI number, and the regular month-by-month increases (rolling 3 months stuff comes later) :
Now the CORE CPI number that the Fed is more interested in (though actually its the CORE PCE inflation gauge that historically has been their #1 gauge of underlying inflation trend to project FUTURE inflation)
Obviously a nice move downward in June. It is actually a 0.16% increase when calculated using the actual index numbers (1.91% annualized). But is it a "one off" outlier?
CORE CPI Rolling 3 month average thru June 2023:
A rolling 3 month helps smooth out month-to-month volatility, and since 3 months is an average of 3 data points, is less likely to be dismissed as a "one off" like a single month's increase could be.
It's been stuck in the 4 to 5% range since November, but has hit the bottom of that range (4.08% annualized calculated using the actual index numbers). Still 2X the Fed's target. So yes, more rate hikes are coming (next Fed rate-setting meeting is July 26-27)
Various series:
BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes
REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted
A happy progree means a happy me! 
including when they have gotten stuck and/or were just bouncing around what was basically a straight line so at least the "dropping" trend is holding. 
The CPI graph in #12:
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes
Last edited Thu Jul 13, 2023, 12:14 AM - Edit history (2)
So the purchasing power of the total U.S. stock market fund is up 1.10% since inflation began in about January 2021... that is, since inflation consistently above the 2% target began.
The market: VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (total U.S. stock market)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history
Using the Adjusted Close figures which are adjusted for reinvested dividends. Thus these are total return figures:
1/1/21: 91.66
7/12/23: 107.42
+17.19%
Inflation: CPI:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
1'21: 262.650 (1'21 means January 2021)
6'23: 303.841
7'23: 304.449 (I just made it 0.2% higher than 6'23)
+15.91%
Real (inflation-adjusted) market up 107.42/91.66 * 262.650/304.449 = 1.01104 => 1.10%.
As for when sustained inflation above the Fed's 2.0% target began: It went above the pre-pandemic approximately 2.0% trendline in around January-February 2021
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
IMGUR beginning May 2017 
One has to get their straight edge out -- I couldn't figure out how to draw a straight line on the graph at IMGUR or the Windows Snip Tool.
I've also looked at every CPI graph from month-by-month to rolling 3 month averages, 6 month averages, 12 month averages, even rolling 36 month averages, so I'm comfortable that January 2021 is close.
Another interesting thing about the above graph is that the inflection point where inflation began a marked slowdown is clear on the graph: around June or July 2022. That X-axis label that is obscured by the "i" in Picsart is July 2022, and that's about where the "kink" is. No surprise: the month over month figures in May 2022 is 0.9% and June is 1.2%, followed by 0.0% and 0.2% in July and August 2022 respectively, making for a rather sharp change in slope.
As for the current CPI and core CPI trends (in the past 13 months or so):
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143099462#post12
What I end up doing to annotate my graphs is to bring up the image in the old "Paint" program to circle, highlight or draw a line, etc (you don't even need to use the newer "Paint 3D" as the old "Paint" one is still there and is quicker/less complicated for doing the quick annotations).
For example I usually do the fed funds rate one. So the rate as of last month (the green ovals were showing the periods when the rates were 0% - 0.25%) -
You can pick the color and thickness of the lines (and shapes) and can even add text by selecting that tool to create a rectangle in the area where the text should appear and then add the text within that rectangle (and I think the font size/color is selectable too).