July was so hot that scientists think it has already been the hottest month ever

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: NBC News

The first three weeks of July have been so warm that it’s almost certain the month will become the hottest ever recorded, the World Meteorological Association announced Thursday.

Last month was the hottest June ever.

“Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures,” Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a news release, adding that human-caused emissions are the “main driver” of rising temperatures.

Copernicus, part of the European Union’s space program, performs satellite observations of Earth. The new monthly record is based on climate reanalysis data, which combines on-the-ground observations, satellite data and climate modeling to produce estimates of temperatures across the Earth that date back decades. The approach fills gaps in the observational record, and it is used by scientists worldwide to evaluate the impacts of climate change.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/july-hottest-month-record-scientist-rcna96475

---

PRESS RELEASE

July 2023 is set to be the hottest month on record

Published 27 July 2023


Bonn and Geneva, 27/07/2023 (Copernicus and WMO) - According to ERA5 data from the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is on track to be the hottest July and the hottest month on record. These temperatures have been related to heatwaves in large parts of North America, Asia and Europe, which along with wildfires in countries including Canada and Greece, have had major impacts on people’s health, the environment and economies.

We don’t have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board, » said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year, » Mr Guterres told journalists at UN headquarters in New York.

For vast parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe – it is a cruel summer. For the entire planet, it is a disaster. And for scientists, it is unequivocal – humans are to blame.
All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of the change, » said Mr Guterres.

More: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/july-2023-set-be-hottest-month-record

[róisín_dubh]

1. This is giving me so much anxiety, despite...

having had probably the crappiest July here in England. It's been cool, cloudy, windy and rainy nearly the entire month with no end in sight. Which is odd in itself, I think. I wish we could swap some of our rain to the Mediterranean in exchange for just a bit of their heat.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Mother Nature

always attempts to "come into equilibrium" so for every "stuck" High pressure system, there is a flanking "stuck" Low pressure system.

You usually need some kind of a "trigger" to move out of these types of pattern configurations.

I had anecdotally observed that patterns tended to hang around for about 6 weeks but in recent years, they seem to be sticking around for longer before getting kicked into a different pattern.

[Deminpenn]

5. Yes, those of us in north eastern seaboard states are well

aware of the "Bermuda High" that sets up around the island of Bermuda and tends to pump hot, sticky air into this area for weeks. It seems to me that these areas of high pressure have been sitting in places other than over Bermuda the last few years, though.

Or conversely, the "cut off low" that twirls around bringing cloudy skies and precipitation.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Well the "Bermuda High" can move around

so usually it is further east in the winter (although when it nudges west, it can set up some mild periods during that time). But it has a tendency to move this way for summer and can establish dominance.

We have been under the "ridge in the west / trough in the east" pattern that has kept that heat dome out of this area until now, when the trough has lifted some up into Canada. I think it is supposed to re-establish next week with cooler/more seasonable air.

[Deminpenn]

8. Even out here in western PA, we have a heat advisory

for today and Friday due to the Bermuda High.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Well in your case

it's not just the Bermuda High but being closer to a series of highs that are congealing with the "heat dome" highs in the middle of the country and southwest.

We have a Heat Advisory today and an Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow as the Canadian High lifts and allows the the southern highs to become dominant while the Bermuda high begins to back into the area.

Right now, my weather station is reading 91 with a disgusting dewpoint of 79.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

13. True, but it's actually been quite nice

We normally have 4-5 days over 90 degree here, and I think today will be the 2nd.

[Deminpenn]

35. Agree

Not much rain in June, but it was really nice with low humidity.

It's rained in July, but not real hot until the last two days. My lawn is usually browned out by the end of July, but greened right back up after the July rains came and looks great.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

17. I just read about the glaciel periods in north america

and as the glaciers melted, they pooled into mammoth lakes of fresh water. When the ice damn broke and unleashed the water to the north Atlantic, it stopped the North Atlantic cycle, and spurned a period where the glaciers actually started expanding again (no heat from the Gulf to warm things up).
With the warm temps now and the fresh water from Greenland, it's forecasted that the northern hemisphere may get really cold - and the kicker is that geological records show it happened back then in as little as 10 years until the fresh water froze, the warmth came back up north, and the glaciers retreated once again.

As you say, from hot to cold to find that equilibrium, but what surprised me was how fast it could happen.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. If you look at a geological map of North America

and then overlay the prevailing jet stream/winds over that over time, you will see how those flows get reinforced.

You will often see the "ridge in the west" where there will be a strong high pressure off the coast of the PNW and the jetstream will ride over top of that and plummet down and under the Great Lakes in some configurations, or will ride along the Continental Divide in a more "amplified" configuration with an Omega Block (with low pressure systems anchoring either side).



vs

[Deminpenn]

36. The earth's climate is always changing

Sometimes I wonder how well understood that is.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. I'm not that surprised at the speed of the change

What we're seeing may be at the 'early' end of the models from say, 10-20 years ago. But those models were built with suppositions that we might actually, you know, do something about the problem soon. This current situation is what was predicted as 'possible if we do little or nothing'. And that's about what happened.

[Chainfire]

4. Oh come on now; that is just liberal science.

They are just trying to take our freedom. The same kind of bogus attack as Covid. (which was just a cold) I will give up my F-450 Diesel when they pry my cold dead fingers from the steering wheel. No amount of lying evidence will every sway my opinion!

As silly as it is, I see post like this every day. They laugh at the ignorance of people who warn against climate change.

[ancianita]

6. NYT has maps (sorry, can't load them, though)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/world/global-heat-map-tracker.html

[BumRushDaShow]

11. I could pull up an image but without the scale

But here is a snapshot -

[ancianita]

14. Thanks. Looks pretty bad. Makes me dread next year.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Well it depends on whether El Nino sticks around or not

We had an almost unprecedented 3-peat of La Nina (with cooler Pacific Ocean water) and that triggered all kinds of devastating floods and hurricanes. One of the hopes with El Nino is that it will be harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic due to a strong Pacific jet that often sheers storms apart before they get going. But if one manages to survive the sheer, look out!

[ancianita]

19. I get that, too.

I'm dreading that the dynamics of Earth's reaction to gigatons of emissions will become so unpredictable, though, that even 3-peats of El Ninos and Ninas can become a yearlong reality. When the centuries of Earth atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms stop, or even slow, we're in for lifelong suffering, imo.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. What is going to have a major effect

that is still ongoing and not completely understood (at least yet), was that massive volcano explosion near Tonga back in early January 2022.

That, like the erruption of Mt. Pinatubo and even Mt. St. Helen's, will alter the atmosphere with the clouds of dust, which had spread around the globe and as it disperses, can create a "sun filter" (reflecting back to space) that cools the atmosphere below.

[Blues Heron]

23. The Tonga eruption lofted mainly water not dust - it may actually have a warming effect

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Oh there was quite a bit of dust

The later analysis reports (and investigations are still ongoing) indicated not only record-breaking water was spewed, but record-breaking amounts of dust, reaching a record-breaking altitude, accompanied by a record-breaking amount of lightning. So I think at this point, they really don't know what the medium-term (several years) effect will be. I can imagine the volcanologists are in their glory and in awe.

This was published just last month -

The shocking things scientists found about this extremely powerful volcanic eruption

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai submarine volcano produced a record 2,600 lightning flashes per minute


By Kasha Patel
June 25, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT



Like crime scene investigators, scientists are retracing what exactly happened on Jan. 15, 2022, near the Tonga archipelago in the South Pacific. At the time, the bare facts were obvious: An underwater volcano erupted, and it was enormous. Since then, scientists keep making remarkable discoveries about what turned out to be one of the world’s most powerful volcanic eruptions.

“It was clear right away that this was going to be a showstopping scientific event,” said Alexa Van Eaton, a volcanologist at the U.S. Geological Survey. “It’s several orders of magnitude larger than anything we’re used to looking at. … This eruption clearly was going to teach us something new.”

The climactic awakening of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai submarine volcano lasted less than a day and took the lives of a handful of people, including as far away as Peru.

The volcano has already broken several records: The powerful blast was bigger than any U.S. nuclear explosion. Tsunami waves overwhelmed shores. Ash flew up into the third layer of Earth’s atmosphere, higher than any other recorded volcanic eruption. An unprecedented amount of water, enough to fill nearly 60,000 Olympic-size swimming pools of water, shot up in the atmosphere and could warm our atmosphere in the future.

Now, a new study led by Van Eaton reveals more details of this puzzling event by analyzing lightning data. Researchers found the plume created its own massive weather system — and the most intense lightning storm ever recorded.

(snip)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/25/tonga-volcano-eruption-lightning-record-study/

[BlueWavePsych]

10. July 2023 could be hottest month in 120,000 years

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/27/july-2023-could-be-hottest-month-in-120000-years/

July is set to be the hottest month on record and possibly in 120,000 years after heatwaves on three continents, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said.

The first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is set to break records “by a significant margin”, according to data from the EU’s Copernicus service.

Parts of the US and China have experienced temperatures above 50C, while Europe has battled wildfires during an intense heatwave and highs of 45C.

The temperatures have been driven in part by record-breaking global average sea surface temperatures since May.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

16. I was going to post to the OP

but even those reports only go back to 1979 - and extrapolated the other hundreds of thousands of years. In the OP, the ERA5 numbers only go back to 1940, and went under recent "reanalysis" to get the headline.

There is way to much bloviating with these news articles to get clicks and money that is dilutes the real science. There is also an El Nino - the first in what, 8 years - so this is expected to a large extent. Do I think things are warming up? Absolutely because the earth is still warming up from the last ice age. Can humans accelerate that, yes. Is the US going to stop it, no way on God's green earth because the problem is the other 85% of the emission from everyone else. I mean China burns more coal than the rest of the planet put together, with India and SE Asia right behind.

[republianmushroom]

12. It is only starting. It will get hotter.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

18. How do we filter out the bloviation?

The ERA5 was another "reanalysis" of data only back to 1940, just like the other "reanalysis" of data in the news going back to 1979. These hundred thousand year statements are essentially click bait for their extrapolations.

Are things warming up, yes, as they should be even if we weren't here. Faster, sure, but the geologic record says we're warming from the last Ice Age anyway along with the first El Nino in 8 years as the sun is getting more active.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. I know there have been a number of researchers

doing tree ring and core sampling of the ground to look for what was happening during past climate periods.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that the Earth has been "warm before", which was obviously back pre-mammal with the dinosaurs. So it can sometimes be difficult to compare now to the remote past, let alone immediately identify what could be long-period cycles of temperature shifts.

[Blues Heron]

25. The radiative forcing from manmade CO2 pollution is like 900W space heaters every 72 feet

across the entire surface of the earth in all directions, blasting heat 24/7/365

thats going to add up to a lot of heat.

That is in addition to the background warming you mentioned.

[Blues Heron]

26. It's all perfectly normal, don't mind that 100 degree seawater or those billowing clouds of smoke

Too funny

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

27. Didn't say it was normal

just that there are huge forces we don't have control over (especially "we" being the US)

[Blues Heron]

28. The US is responsible for 25 percent of total ghg emissions to date, and is currently number 2

We are a huge part of it with a leading role to play.

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

29. Simply not true

I don't know how to post pictures, but this site has the numbers:

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

The US is 18% of the emissions currently, and all the emissions from the US since 1900 has been eclipsed by what is going on now.

I guess we're splitting hairs. What the US emitted historically is insignificant compared to today's numbers globally, and the rest of the world is the biggest problem as they ramp up. I mean, China burned more coal than the rest of the planet last year. Can we be a role model, sure, but that doesn't move the numbers we need.

[Blues Heron]

30. Here's where I found those numbers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_the_United_States

[Skittles]

31. so are you denying climate change

or just relieving humans of any responsibility

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

33. What? Not what I said

I'm being realistic in what can be done, that's all.

[NickB79]

32. Studies show inter-glacial warming peaked 6000 yr ago

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0530-7

The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05).

Without humans, we'd be cooling, not warming.

We've literally cancel the next Ice Age for 50,000-100,000 yr.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/13/scientists-say-humans-have-basically-canceled-the-next-ice-age/

As for solar activity? The recent upswing in flares and sunspots is unrelated to modern temperature spikes. How do we know this? Because recent activity is actually weaker than previous cycles. Blaming the Sun is a long-discredited linchpin of climate change denial.

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/sun-is-ramping-up-activity-but-still-within-predictions/

[BlueIn_W_Pa]

34. I'm not blaming the sun for climate change

what I'm saying is while temperatures are rising due to CO2, the sun has been pretty quiet recently, and from NASA, "The amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs".

My point is as this cycle ramps up, it's going to get even worse because they'll be even more energy reaching earth, not that the sun is responsible for climate change. Global temperature and solar irradiance had a pretty close relation until the 1970's, when they diverged. Temp going up without coming back down, but you do see that at solar minimums, the temp rises more slowly, and maximums, it rises more quickly.

Thank you for the research paper. I was looking at the larger Quaternary, but I guess geologic time doesn't help when talking about the last 6,000 yrs people started multiplying is more important. I guess that's why they are proposing a new epoch due to human influence on the earth. We may end up in another mini ice age in the north as the fresh water melt slows down the Atlantic "conveyor belt". What concerns me (and I'm trying to get the link) is that the researchers said it has happened in as little as 10 years :/