U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected
Source: CNBC
Published Fri, Nov 3 2023 8:30 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago
The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000. The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000.
A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point. The labor force participation rate declined slightly to 62.7%, while the labor force contracted by 201,000.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html
Good morning all! Stay tuned for DU's economy analysts for the deep dives. TGIF!
From the source -
Link to tweet
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
Payroll employment rises by 150,000 in October; unemployment rate changes little at 3.9% https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
#JobsReport #BLSdata
8:30 AM · Nov 3, 2023
Article updated.
Previous article -
The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000.
A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point.
Average hourly earnings, a key measure for inflation, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% forecast, while the 4.1% year over year again was 0.1 percentage point above expectations.
Original article -
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to grow by 170,000 in October, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate.
This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.
progree
(13,076 posts)Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:
# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001
# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000
# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001
# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)
# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
# Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
# White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------
# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000
# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639
# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000
# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000
# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619
# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620
# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted
LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097
LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062
More LFPR links including by race: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695870
ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097
Data series finder (employment/unemployment related): https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . Regular CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Core CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Energy: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF1?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food at home (groceries): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
. . . One Screen Data Search for CPI components: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu
Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789
Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.
BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)I had heard on the radio yesterday and this morning (Bloomberg business report on KYW here) that there were expectations for 180,000. I also heard this week that the auto worker strikes the past month or so might have had an impact.
progree
(13,076 posts)=====================================================
REVISIONS: August and September combined were revised down by 101,000
NEWS RELEASE https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
So we have only 49,000 more nonfarm payroll jobs than were reported in last month's report released October 6 (150-101 = 49)
The separate Household Survey reports a 348,000 decrease in the number of employed.
Jerome Powell:
"It's working, bwa ha ha ha"
(I made up this quote
BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)LOL @ the "quote" (in quotes).
(this does suggest that they may be done with interest increases for the year now)
progree
(13,076 posts)BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(70,702 posts)Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, November 3, 2023
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2023
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million, changed little in October. However, since their recent lows in April, these measures are up by 0.5 percentage point and 849,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change in October. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 164,000 over the month to 1.6 million. The number of persons on temporary layoff changed little at 873,000. (See table A-11.)
In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.8 percent of all unemployed persons. (See table A-12.)
Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.2 percent, changed little in October. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)
In October, the number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.4 million, little different from the prior month. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.4 million in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 416,000. (See Summary table A.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, below the average monthly gain of 258,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment in manufacturing declined due to strike activity. (See table B-1.)
Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000).
Social assistance added 19,000 jobs in October, compared with the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in individual and family services (+14,000).
In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000), about in line with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and construction of buildings (+6,000).
Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity.
In October, employment in leisure and hospitality changed little (+19,000). The industry had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment in professional and business services was little changed in October (+15,000) and has shown little net change since May. Employment in temporary help services changed little over the month (+7,000) but is 229,000 below its peak in March 2022.
In October, employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed (-12,000) and has shown little net change over the year. Over the month, warehousing and storage lost 11,000 jobs, while air transportation added 4,000 jobs.
Information employment changed little in October (-9,000). Employment in motion picture and sound recording continued to trend down (-5,000); the industry has lost 44,000 jobs since May, at least partially reflecting the impact of an ongoing labor dispute.
Over the month, employment showed little change in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; and other services.
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $34.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.19. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in October. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 8, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
{snip a bunch of tables 'n' stuff.}
BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)for the previous 2 months.
And good Friday morning!
progree
(13,076 posts)Hi mahatmakanejeeves,
By any chance would you have links to prior LBN DU reports on the monthly jobs numbers? I haven't updated since July, when I became ill. You used to post links to prior reports, I'm wondering is you still collect those. Thanks
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439
MAY 2023 (dated 6/2/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143082170
APRIL 2023 (dated 5/5/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143070519
MARCH 2023 (dated 4/7/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143056808
...
BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)JULY 2023 (dated 8/4/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143109301
AUGUST 2023 (dated 9/1/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143123973
SEPTEMBER (dated 10/6/23): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143140332
progree
(13,076 posts)BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(70,702 posts)I'll do something about that this weekend.
And good afternoon.
progree
(13,076 posts)FakeNoose
(42,391 posts)Some are so desperate for new hires that they're posting the starting hourly wage on exterior signs. "You can start working here at $14.00 per hour!" and so forth.
LetMyPeopleVote
(182,006 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(70,702 posts)I'll have to update this.
Fri Jan 6, 2023: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 5, 2023: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Dec 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Nov 30, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Nov 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Nov 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Oct 7, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Oct 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Sep 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Aug 31, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Aug 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Aug 3, 2022: ADP has suspended its report until September.
Fri Jul 8, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jul 6, 2022: ADP has suspended its report until September.
Fri Jun 3, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jun 1, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri May 6, 2022: Links to earlier reports
Wed May 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Apr 1, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Mar 30, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Mar 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Mar 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Feb 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Feb 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 12, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Sat Dec 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Dec 1, 2021: Links to additional earlier reports:
Fri Nov 5, 2021: (I had to split the links into two posts, due to "Forbidden 403" issues)
Links to earlier reports:
Links to additional earlier reports:
Wed Nov 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
-- -- -- -- -- --
[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]
Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Lets look at some earlier numbers:
Fri Jan 6, 2023: Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2022:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in December, as strong jobs market tops expectations
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2022:
Wed Jan 5, 2023: Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2022:
Payrolls rose by 263,000 in November, more than expected despite Fed rate hikes
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2022:
Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2022:
U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2022:
Private payrolls rose 239,000 in October, better than expected, while wages increased 7.7%, ADP says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2022:
Jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 263,000 in September, unemployment rate falls to 3.5%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2022:
Businesses added 208,000 jobs in September, better than expected, ADP reports
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2022:
August jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 315,000 last month
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2022:
Private payrolls grew by just 132,000 in August, ADP says in reworked jobs report
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2022:
Employers added 528,000 jobs in July, as the hot labor market powers on
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2022:
ADP has suspended its report until September.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2022:
June jobs report: Payrolls rise by 372,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2022:
ADP has suspended its report until September.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2022:
May jobs report: Payrolls rise by 390,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2022:
U.S. Treasury yields fall as data show slowest job growth in pandemic recovery
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2022:
April jobs report: Payrolls rise by 428,000 as unemployment rate holds at 3.6%
[ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2022:
U.S. Companies Added 247,000 Jobs in April, ADP Data Show
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2022:
U.S. economy adds 431,000 jobs in March
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2022:
Private payrolls rose by 455,000 in March, topping expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2022:
February jobs report: Payrolls rise by 678,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.8%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2022:
Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2022:
January jobs report: Payrolls jump by 467,000 as unemployment rate rises to 4.0%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2022:
Companies unexpectedly cut 301,000 jobs in January as omicron slams jobs market, ADP says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2021:
December jobs report: Payrolls rise by 199,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.9%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2021:
December private payrolls rose by 807,000, far exceeding expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2021:
U.S. economy adds just 210,000 jobs in November
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2021:
November private payrolls rose by 534,000 topping expectations: ADP
BumRushDaShow
(172,207 posts)some formatting options have been added for DU4 - notably the "monospace" font to help with trying to create table-like posts (without having the table option). I only played around with it a little bit during the beta testing though. The yellow highlight and the strike-through are probably the more obvious additions!
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