Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won't go away

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Tue Feb 13, 2024, 11:53 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, Feb 13 2024 8:31 AM EST Updated 45 Min Ago


Inflation rose more than expected in January as stubbornly high shelter prices weighed on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of the prices shoppers face for goods and services across the economy, increased 0.3% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On a 12-month basis, that came out to 3.1%, down from 3.4% in December.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual gain of 2.9%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI accelerated 0.4% in January and was up 3.9% from a year ago, unchanged from December. The forecast had been for 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html

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From the source -

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CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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8:30 AM · Feb 13, 2024

Article updated.

Previous articles/headline -

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, more than expected, as the annual rate moved to 3.1%

Published Tue, Feb 13 2024 8:31 AM EST Updated 2 Min Ago


Inflation rose more than expected in January as stubbornly high shelter prices weighed on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of the prices shoppers face for goods and services across the economy, increased 0.3% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On a 12-month basis, that came out to 3.1%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual gain of 2.9%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI accelerated 0.4% in January and was up 3.9% from a year ago. The forecast had been for 0.3% and 3.7% respectively.

Published Tue, Feb 13 20248:31 AM EST Updated 2 Min Ago


Inflation rose more than expected in January as stubbornly high shelter prices weighed on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of the prices shoppers face for goods and services across the economy, increased 0.3% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On a 12-month basis, that came out to 3.1%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual gain of 2.9%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI accelerated 0.4% in January and was up 3.9% from a year ago. The forecast had been for 0.3% and 3.7% respectively.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Original article -

Published Tue, Feb 13 20248:31 AM EST


The consumer price index was expected to show a 0.2% increase in January, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

[mobeau69]

1. Not good.

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. Full employment, rising wages - corporate America sees no reason to stop raising prices.

[mucifer]

4. greed is good.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. 3.1% is fine

With wages increasing at between 4 and 5%, this is just noise. We're heading back to 2%, this just menas rate cuts are still a few months away.

Real wages are higher now than before Covid, so it's very real that people are ahead now of what they were before Covid.

[onenote]

5. People aren't yet ahead of where they were before COVID, but the trend is in the right direction

There were months and months -- almost two years -- where inflation grew more rapidly than wages. Closing that gap requires months and months of wage increases growing more than inflation. The recent trend of monthly wage increases exceeding inflation, which began last year, is closing the gap that was created by months of inflation exceeding wage growth, but estimates are that this trend will have to continue for most of this year in order to get things back to where they were pre-pandemic.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Not true

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households#:~:text=Real%20weekly%20earnings%20for%20the,in%202019%2C%20despite%20higher%20prices.

"Real weekly earnings for the median worker grew 1.7 percent between 2019 and 2023. This means that one week of pay for the median worker now buys more than a week of pay did in 2019, despite higher prices."

This takes into account all prices, food, housing, rents, transportation. People are ahead right now from what they were in 2019.

[sybylla]

12. This isn't true for retirees, though.

It's hitting them hard - insufficient increases in social security means they are losing ground in this economy of greed-flation.

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Also not true

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-

COLA for social security has been greater than inflation by a substantal margin in 2021 and 2022.

A person on SSI who got $1000 a month in 2019 now gets $1203 in 2024. If their expenses were $1000 a month in 2019, their expenses are now $1124 a month.

[Polybius]

14. Whether it's true or not, people perceive it to be true

I certainly was doing better before March, 2020.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. That's a problem

And I am sorry for your situation, but the data suggests you are in the minority and more people are doing better now than in March of 2020. I am certainly doing much better now than then, but that has no real bearing on what the data shows.

[Polybius]

17. It's the same thing with crime

Data suggest that it's down everywhere, but a huge amount of people think it's up.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Thank you

Yes, I routinely publish the crime data here on DU and people still dispute it. We're at or near 60 year lows in crime, property and violent crime, but people just cannot accept that because of what they see in the media and on social media.

Cime is incredibly low right now. Safest we've ever been from crime in most cities.

[Polybius]

20. The stuff people say is insane

I was telling my friend that I was on my way to Manhattan, and he was like "whatever you do, don't take the subway! You can be killed!" Well, I took the subway, and I'm still typing.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. Nextdoor

A neighbor who I know from my subdivision was on Nextdoor posting about how awful crime is in his subdivision and how he doesn't feel safe anymore. This guy is a great guy and lives across the street from me. Our city police department has a "crime maps" site, I showed him the results for this crime map for our actual subdivision, there has literally been 0 crimes reported in our subdivision in over 6 years. Not a break in, not a domestic violence issue, not even a single porch pirate. There is literally 0 crime in our neighborhood, none.

His response, "well, people don't even report it anymore..." Which is demonstrably false, crime is less likely to go unreported now than ever because of technology.

So you can literally show someone that there is no crime in their neighborhood for 6 years, and they won't believe you because of what they see on social media. It's an emotional repsonse.

And what's most frustrating to me is that here on DU the resistance to the actual data is so strong. We can't even convince DUers that the economy isdoing great right now, how is Biden going to convince the general public?

[former9thward]

34. The reason crime is not reported has nothing to do with technology.

I can't believe that was written. Companies do not report crime when they know it will not be prosecuted. Individuals do not report crime when they know it will not be prosecuted or that the police will not attempt to solve it. Where I live in Chicago no one I know would report a minor crime. The police would not attempt to solve it.

[Igel]

37. It's also an average figure.

What's the standard deviation?

If other words, if Mr. X got a 10% bump, from $100k to $110k, but Mr. Y got a bump from $35k to $36k, that's not a bad "average increase". Mr. Y, on other other hand, isn't feeling the love as he's under water economically.

[Johnny2X2X]

39. Median

They don’t use mean average. They use median.

[spooky3]

26. SS has kept up better than have pensions and investment income

2022 was horrible for stocks, and bonds have done badly for years.

SS was never intended to be the sole source of retirement income, and it isn’t, for most retirees. So her point about retirees’ losing ground to inflation is valid.

I think she just wants us not to ignore the fact that nearly a fifth of Americans are on disability or retired, so we shouldn’t focus only on whether wage growth outpaces inflation.

[Johnny2X2X]

30. Valid points on pensions

Pensions that don’t have a COLA felt the inflation. Disability went up with the same raises as regular social security. And people living on investment income are in a golden age right now, it’s the best 4 year stretch for investors ever.

The bigger pony though is that most people are doing better now than they were 4 years ago, but no one talks about it.

[spooky3]

31. Disagree with you about investments. Most retirees followed advice to

Diversify and put at least 40% in bonds and cash, which have done badly in recent years. 401k target funds for 2025 and nearer term are required to put a substantial amount in bonds, and must invest in international funds as well as domestic funds. According to some analysts, these are the primary reasons that near term target funds have lagged far behind the S&P 500.

And anyone who retired and had to start drawing money out in 2022 was screwed. Even though 2023 bounced back, historical domestic returns are ~8 percent per year. That’s a lot of ground lost that still has not been made up, and layer on 9+% inflation, and the picture is clear. They aren’t keeping up as wage earners are.

Go back to 2018, which wasn’t as bad as 2022 for domestic stocks, but was still bad. And many retirees had an entire decade of low returns starting around 2000 that forced them to save more or postpone retirement.

Looking at only the past 4 years in the domestic stock market therefore is misleading.

On edit: the Vanguard 2025 target fund, a low cost fund with good ratings, had a share price of 19.98 on January 6, 2020, about 4 years ago. Today, it’s 18.34. That is a loss, before inflation. Taking inflation into account since then, retirees and savers have lost about 20%. If you think this is atypical, research similar target funds. It’s not.

[Igel]

36. Not everybody gets social security.

I guess they don't count.

[Johnny2X2X]

38. Who doesnt get SSI when they retire?

Even if you paid in nothing you get a minimum amount.

[spooky3]

40. State workers, teachers, etc., in certain states nt

[CousinIT]

7. Any discussion of inflation without simultaneous discussion of corporate profits

....is misleading.

Corporate price gouging, hedge funds buying up property/housing inventory and driving housing prices up by remodeling then selling/renting them at ridiculous prices, grocery items jacked up .40 cents in a month amidst record corporate profits, junk fees - ALL OF THAT - none of which is under control of the Fed but purely corporate greed-driven, is what is driving CPI/inflation up.

You can't reasonably discuss inflation without discussing corporate profits, junk fees, hedge fund housing purchases nationwide and sales/rentals. When you look at all that, then it's clear where it's coming from and who needs to be targeted about it and blamed for it. (hint: It's not Joe Biden).

[BumRushDaShow]

8. What is unfortunate

is that Congress (and of late, just the Senate since that is under Democratic party control) will hold hearings to discuss this, will drag various CEOs in to testify, will then use that info to draft legislation to do something about it, and then the GOP makes sure it dies.

[CousinIT]

11. Republicans don't want to help Americans (or anybody but themselves) or solve problems.

Last edited Tue Feb 13, 2024, 02:52 PM - Edit history (1)

They just want to campaign on those problems. They're all about - themselves.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. 100% agree

Most of inflation was corporate profits rising.

But also, you can't talk inflation without wage growth. Much of inflation, even at its height, was off set with high wage growth. And in fact "real wages" today are higher than before Covid and inflation. And that goes doubly for people at the bottom of the income scale, low wage earners saw wage growth well in excess of inflation throughout.

[moniss]

35. Excellent points

and I did see one article that pointed out that restaurant prices went up a tiny fraction. I'm sure we all remember how supposedly a drive through burger was going to shoot through the roof and cost us $15 at the cheaper places if we increased minimum wages. Another scary financial prediction bites the dust. McD's raised their prices and gouged everybody for a short term gain and then saw volumes drop. Now they're lowering prices. I'm a cheap old skinflint and I don't like spending a big amount on food that is just "filler" with little nutritional value. So I order off the "dollar menu" at the drive through and get two of the cheap chicken sandwiches for $3. No fries and I bring my own soda in a bottle. Breakfast is more challenging there since they eliminated the parfait. The oatmeal thing is kind of meh.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. 10-year Treasury yield shoots higher as January CPI is hotter than expected

Last edited Tue Feb 13, 2024, 12:56 PM - Edit history (1)

BONDS

10-year Treasury yield shoots higher as January CPI is hotter than expected

PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 13 20245:42 AM EST UPDATED 11 MIN AGO

Lisa Kailai Han
@LISAKAILAIHAN
Alex Harring
@ALEX_HARRING
Karen Gilchrist
@_KARENGILCHRIST

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged on Tuesday after January inflation data came in stronger than expected. ... The 10-year Treasury yield added 11 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed nearly 14 basis points to 4.61%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

{snip table}

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January from December, while the annual rate moved to 3.1%. Economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated the key inflation gauge to increase 0.2% in January and 2.9% on an annualized basis.

Market participants have watched for any signs that inflation has cooled enough to allow the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates. But Tuesday’s data added to doubts that the central bank would be able to lower the cost of borrowing several times this year, which has been a centerpiece of equity market bullishness in recent months. ... Some investors are even anticipating 10-year yields moving back above 5.00%.

{snip}

Later in the week, January retail sales figures are slated for release on Thursday, while the January producer price index comes out on Friday.

{snip}

[PSPS]

10. Correction: "as greedflation won't go away"

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. 3.1%, down from 3.4% in Dec. ReichWing headlines: "Inflation Roars Back: Dow Jones Plummets"

Inflation Roars Back: Dow Jones Plummets Over 400 Points as Economic Concerns Escalate
Citizen Watch Report ^

Posted on 2024-02-13, by davikkm

Just as confidence grew that inflation was tamed, it rears its head again, sending shockwaves through the markets. The Dow Jones takes a nosedive of more than 400 points following January's inflation report, which significantly surpassed expectations.

Economists find themselves puzzled as both Core CPI and headline CPI register higher than anticipated for the second consecutive month. The unsettling reality extends beyond these headline figures,

[ClimateHawk]

29. They sound desperate.

[twodogsbarking]

23. I'm headed out to buy toilet paper.

Let's all panic.

[moniss]

24. I know you didn't write the headline but the writer is ridiculous because

inflation almost never "goes away" unless you're in a major collapse like the Great Depression or like the 2007-2008 collapse which collapsed us to the point we finally hit negatives by a very small amount by 2009. The truth is inflation is moving downward significantly year over year but we don't really see many writers reporting that and a tenth of a per cent is meaningless and all of these financial writers know very well that these numbers get revised as more and more data comes in. The charts typically use December to December for annualized numbers. I've included a link. The rate of inflation decreased by more than 52% from the 2022 annualized figure of 6.5% to the 2023 rate of 3.4%. That is the real story of inflation and what has major impact rather than a tenth of a percentage point difference on a not yet finalized number.

I have no problem with writer Jeff Cox and CNBC saying that .2 was expected and it came in at .3. That is factual. It is not factual to give people an impression that inflation is something that "goes away". It can go up or down but for the most part, except for things like I mentioned, it will always be on the positive side and that is different than "going away". Going away means gone. Now if he and CNBC meant to talk about the difference between a Fed target and a projection using this number then fine as long as they indicate the fairly useless practice of taking a one month not finalized number and then projecting that out over 12 months even though history shows us that the numbers change month to month and so this month's projection is changed by the numbers from each ensuing month down the road. It is also disingenuous for writers to make it sound like the January numbers mean something they don't. The word choices in headlines and phrases matter.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

[twodogsbarking]

25. Typical liberal. Using facts to more confuse those already hopelessly confuled.

[BumRushDaShow]

28. You'll notice that I include previous versions of the article including previous "headlines" in my OP comments

and it seems someone sent someone at CNBC a "memo" to go into editorializing with that headline. They normally play it straight and they did so with their earlier version of the headline, and then something "changed".

(unfortunately if I don't use the "exact headline", even if it changes a million times during the day, the OP WILL BE locked)

[moniss]

32. I hear you and thanks for the info about

not being able to change the headline. I didn't know that.

[BumRushDaShow]

33. The LBN OP form

has "Post EXACT TITLE, without additional comment" in the OP title line (as a helper prompt).

Unfortunately many news sites are "dynamic" (for obvious reasons because they are able to provide "real time" updates during the day). But then that forces one to keep that updated in the OP or risk getting the OP locked (something that needs to be looked at IMHO).

[republianmushroom]

27. Rising prices have more to do with corp. greed which fuels inflation.