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BumRushDaShow

(130,227 posts)
Wed May 15, 2024, 08:33 AM Wednesday

CPI report shows inflation easing in April, with consumer prices still rising 3.4% from a year ago

Last edited Wed May 15, 2024, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago


Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.



On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021 while the monthly increase was the smallest since December.

Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html



From the source -




BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
CPI for all items rises 0.3% in April; shelter and gasoline up https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
#CPI #BLSdata
8:30 AM · May 15, 2024



Article updated.

Previous articles/headlines -

Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago


Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.

(snip)

On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021 while the month increase was the smallest since December.

Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.



Inflation eases in April with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year ago

Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.

(snip)

On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021.

Markets reacted positively after the CPI release, with futures tied to major stock indexes rallying and Treasury yields tumbling. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September.



Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April, less than expectations

Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 1 Min Ago


Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.

On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations.,

Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast.


This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.



Original article -

Published Wed, May 15 2024 8:31 AM EDT


The consumer price index was expected to increase 3.4% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
CPI report shows inflation easing in April, with consumer prices still rising 3.4% from a year ago (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Wednesday OP
Slightly better than expected report Johnny2X2X Wednesday #1
Grocery store prices have been dropping for a while now Deminpenn Wednesday #2
Graphs: PCE, CPI, PPI: 3 month rolling average and monthly changes: both regular and Core progree Wednesday #3
DOW at all time record high right now Johnny2X2X Wednesday #4
S&P 500 too progree Wednesday #7
The challenge is twofold FBaggins Thursday #9
Imagine a Democratic controlled House where legislation to stop price gouging and enabling taxes on windfall NoMoreRepugs Wednesday #5
The hang-up in that scenario though BumRushDaShow Wednesday #6
True. NoMoreRepugs Wednesday #8

Johnny2X2X

(19,352 posts)
1. Slightly better than expected report
Wed May 15, 2024, 08:37 AM
Wednesday

Market futures turned positive immediately.

And as always, you can't discuss inflation without discussin wage growth which has been higher than inflation for well over a year running now. People are getting ahead, and real wages are higher today than they were in 2019, before Covid hit.

Deminpenn

(15,307 posts)
2. Grocery store prices have been dropping for a while now
Wed May 15, 2024, 08:41 AM
Wednesday

There are lots of rollback stickers at Walmart and also Aldi.

progree

(10,961 posts)
3. Graphs: PCE, CPI, PPI: 3 month rolling average and monthly changes: both regular and Core
Wed May 15, 2024, 09:12 AM
Wednesday

Last edited Fri May 17, 2024, 02:32 AM - Edit history (7)

I've been seeing some mischaracterizations of the recent inflation situation in the media, so here is a summary table followed by the graphs.

I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.

ALL the numbers are the seasonally adjusted ones

The "1 month" number is the change from March to April expressed as an annualized number. (Exception: The PCE is from February to March -- they don't update their number for April until late in May)

The "3 month" number is the growth over the last 3 months (and then annualized). It is calculated based on the change in the index number between the latest one and the one 3 months previous. e.g. if the latest index value is 304 and the one 3 months previous is 300, then the 3 month increase is 1.333333%
. . . (304/300 = 1.01333333 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 1.333333%)
Annualized, it is 5.4%
. . . (1.01333333^4 = 1.0544095 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 5.44095% => 5.4%).
. . . Most people just multiply the 3 month increase by 4 to annualize it: 1.333333%*4 = 5.333333% => 5.3% which isn''t technically correct (it leaves out compounding) but it is close for small percentage changes.

"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"

"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)

Finally, the main summary table
All are seasonally adjusted and annualized
PCE-Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Fed's favorite inflation measure)
CPI-Consumer Price Index (retail)
PPI-Producer Price Index (Wholesale prices)
Links to the data are with the graphs below



Average real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings are up over the past 2 years and are above the pre-pandemic level:
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # Real average hourly earnings of private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

And now the graphs, in the following order:

* Core PCE and Regular PCE (Core PCE is the Fed's favorite for projecting FUTURE inflation)

* Core CPI and Regular CPI

* Wholesale inflation - Core PPI and Regular PPI

CORE PCE through *March* that came out 4/26/24
CORE PCE (seasonally adjusted): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

This is the one that the Fed weighs most heavily. The Fed weigh the PCE more heavily than the CPI. And in both cases, they weigh the CORE measures higher than the regular headline measures for projecting FUTURE inflation



Regular PCE through *March* that came out 4/26/24
Regular PCE (seasonally adjusted): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI


CORE CPI through April that came out 5/15/24
CORE CPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



The Regular aka Headline CPI through April that came out 5/15/24
Regular CPI (seasonally adjusted) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



WHOLESALE INFLATION (PPI - the Producer Price Index)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise.

CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services) through April that came out 5/14/24:
CORE PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116



===========================================================

Regular PPI through April that came out 5/14/24 ( includes "everything" ):
Regular PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4

Johnny2X2X

(19,352 posts)
4. DOW at all time record high right now
Wed May 15, 2024, 10:09 AM
Wednesday

Had the little sell off in April, took 18 trading days to break records again.

The economy is very strong, and it's that way because working people are doing better. When working people have more money to spend, everyone benefits and the economy takes off. That's what Biden's entire presidency has been about.

FBaggins

(26,801 posts)
9. The challenge is twofold
Thu May 16, 2024, 07:08 AM
Thursday

One - The Dow is not inflation-adjusted. Yes - it's up about 33% since the term started, but inflation is up about 20% during the same period (and far more than that for many real-life goods).

Two - Many people do not participate in market gains (unlike inflation)

NoMoreRepugs

(9,543 posts)
5. Imagine a Democratic controlled House where legislation to stop price gouging and enabling taxes on windfall
Wed May 15, 2024, 10:12 AM
Wednesday

profits could be proposed - life in the US could be sooooo much better.

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