NOAA issues highest-ever May forecast for the coming hurricane season

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: NBC News

May 23, 2024, 10:50 AM EDT / Updated May 23, 2024, 12:19 PM EDT


In the highest hurricane season forecast they have ever released in May, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said Thursday that the coming months may be exceptionally busy. “The forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” Rick Spinrad, the agency's administrator, said in a news conference. “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways.”

NOAA predicts eight to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms. Storms get names when their wind speeds reach 39 mph or higher.

Given the near-record warmth in much of the Atlantic Ocean and a strong chance of La Niña conditions, forecasters said there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season along the Atlantic seaboard. "All the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season," said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. It typically starts to peak in late summer and early fall. Global warming increases hurricanes' propensity for damaging effects. A warmer atmosphere makes the storms more likely to rapidly pick up wind speed as they near the shore. And when storms make landfall, climate change is increasing the probability they will stall and drop rainfall at extreme rates.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/noaa-hurriane-forecast-high-rcna153161

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Link to NOAA NEWS RELEASE - NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

1. Parts of the U.S. have already had a lot of tornado damage this year...

If this hurricane forecast is accurate, It could be the worst year ever for total storm damage.

And most of the damage will occur in red states in the midwest and along the gulf coast.

[JoseBalow]

2. Suck it, Florida!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. Lots of good people and innocent animals in Florida.

[JoseBalow]

10. Not for long

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Maybe this time, their predictions will be on target. From what I've seen, they have been off the mark. And I don't

blame them, I think the uncertainty about climate change (and ocean currents etc.) is shaking the boat somewhat, making the art of prediction a little more uncertain.

[NickB79]

6. Last year did have a good number of named storms

But the wind shear from El Nino pushed most of them out to sea.

This year we're transitioning to La Nina. No wind shear barrier to protect the coastline.

[FakeNoose]

4. Hot afternoon air rising plus cool moist winds incoming equal turbulent weather

It's nothing new, except for the fact that our afternoon temps are higher than normal these days.

Anyone who lives in a mobile home (or a ground-level shelter with no basement) should plan for emergency accommodations. Often a tornado warning allows no more than 15 minutes' notice, so don't wait until the emergency happens.

[LiberalFighter]

5. Everyone get their black Sharpies out and

Direct all hurricanes to MaraLago.

Maybe use a red Sharpie to mark it as the target.

[oasis]

7. What are the nine most terrifying

words in the English language?

[republianmushroom]

9. Mother nature is PO'ed.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

11. Adding energy to a system makes it more energetic. Whodathunkit?

Add energy unevenly to a very large system and it goes wild while balancing that energy, or trying to.

[Pluvious]

12. Take a look at these two heat maps...

Yikes !

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Believe it or not, given all that was going on in 2020

THAT year's (2020) hurricane season had a record-setting number of tropical cyclones at 32, where 31 were named storms. So that season definitely surpassed 2005 (28 storms, 27 named) by a mile.


Observed hurricane tracks (black lines) and sea surface temperatures (red and orange shading) for the north Atlantic over 1 June – 30 November 2020. Source: Reed et al (2022).

[tornado34jh]

13. Well, that depends on how much dry air and wind shear there is

Water temperatures alone don't tell the whole story. Also, the Atlantic has a much bigger area where tropical systems can form or still be tropical, largely thanks to the Gulf Stream. So even if it is an active season, it doesn't mean that it will be active in terms of landfalling tropical storms/hurricanes. Take the Carribean, for example, where a lot of hurricanes form and often hit Florida. In the last 3 years, not a single hurricane formed in the Caribbean in the 2023 hurricane season, there was only 1 major hurricane in the Caribbean in 2022, and none in 2021. So the Caribbean has largely been spared. In fact, right now, much of the Caribbean is dry right now, especially in the western Caribbean. The Yucatan Peninsula has seen a major drought and wildfires. As I right this right now, Florida has been hot and dry. So we'll see what happens. But at least in the early going, I think it will be limited.